The 2nd Division of the German Bundesliga kicks off this Friday with 3 very interesting games. League leaders Kaiserslautern are taking on Hansa Rostock at home. Hansa are in desperation of the 3 points to avoid relegation!

Monday 26th April 2010

Kick off time at 20:15 CET

Energie Cottbus vs Union Berlin

The hosts are 5 points away from the danger zone. After Hansa beat Kaiserslautern 3 days ago, everyone in the squad remains sharp and alert since they haven’t escaped the danger yet. Their next match is against Hansa away from home, so they can’t afford to lose this one. Union Berlin are a bit more comfortable. At 41 points, they are 6 points away from the danger zone, so they need just 1 point just to be sure here.

The first rule in case of a tie in the league is goal difference. Both Cottbus and Union have better goal differences than Hansa, but it’s possible, if either one lose their 3 matches and Hansa win both of theirs, that the goal difference may as well come around. With that in mind, Union still have to play against Bielefeld and Munich 1860, both superior opponents, so they will look for that point here that will seal the deal. Cottbus will be facing Ahlen, who have already relegated and they have 7 consecutive defeats in the league, so they know for sure that if they need any additional points they’ll have no problems to take them then.

The hosts have won 4 of their last 7 matches, two of them being impressive wins by 4-1 and 4-2 over Bielefeld and Dusseldorf, while Union have got 4 draws from their last 7 matches.

To sum things up, another draw at 3.40 today is likely, though the outcome may also be a home win at 2.00

Betting suggestion:  Draw (low stakes)
 

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Sunday 25th April 2010

Kick off time at 13:00 CET

Munich 1860 vs Oberhausen

Munich may be playing in front of their own fans here, but if there’s one team that can’t afford to lose, it’s Oberhausen. The visitors are 5 clear of the danger zone, however they have to face Dusseldorf and Bielefeld in the last two games, so they need 1 point here, or even 3, to get rid of any worries left regarding relegation.

The visitors are on a roll lately. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 matches, with the latest win being the most impressive, as they scored 4 goals against Cottbus.

Munich confirmed their bizarre habit of winning one week and then losing the next, then winning and losing again. It’s now been 13 matches for them without a draw, 4 wins and 6 losses. If they maintain their habit, it’s time to win this week. However, I believe there’s more to it than just stats, I believe that the matches they’ve lost lately were due to the fact that they don’t have any real goals in the league any more and they were facing highly motivated opponents.

It’s a similar situation today and if had to pick something I’d pick the away win, just like Hansa beat Kaiserslautern two days ago.

Betting suggestion: X2 double chance (1.91 at bet365)

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Arminia Bielefeld vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

Kaiserslautern, despite their defeat, will take one of the two spots that lead to the Bundesliga I. St. Pauli will certainly finish in the top-3, since it’s impossible for Dusseldorf to reach them. However, Dusseldorf still have some theoretical chances to 3rd place from Augsburg. Last week they beat Munich 1860, a team that beat Bielefeld twice this year, the second being just 2 weeks ago. Bielefeld have lost 5 of their last 7 matches, but they were a little unlucky last week against Kaiserslautern to concede a late goal.

They are usually very positive when playing at home and despite the fact that Dusseldorf need the 3 points to maintain their dreams regarding 3rd place, I believe this match should be left alone. Besides, Dusseldorf have had some terrible results away from home, only Koblenz have a worse away record.

Betting suggestion: No bet.
 

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Frankfurt vs Augsburg

This will certainly be the match of the day! Both teams desperately need the points, especially after Friday night’s results. Frankfurt probably couldn’t believe it when they heard Hansa had beaten Kaiserslautern away from home and climb up to 35 points, so now they need at least a point in order to retake 15th place, since they have a far worse goal difference than their rivals. On the other had, Augsburg need the 3 points to secure 3rd place and maintain their hopes of taking 2nd place, so that they will be promoted directly to the Bundesliga I, without the playoff match. St. Pauli beat Koblenz two days ago, so any result other than the win here will probably be the end of  those dreams.

The hosts have won 4 of their last 6 matches and they’ve lost just 2 of their last 12. Those results put them near the top of the recent form table and that’s how they managed to escape from the danger zone. Frankfurt are hard to be beaten at their own home field and Augsburg have lost all 3 of their latest away matches, with a total score of 8-0.

A point will put Frankfurt ahead of Hansa and won’t mean the end of the world to Augrsburg, that will probably take 3rd place either way, so there may be some value on the draw result.

Betting suggestion: Draw (low stakes)
 

 

Friday 23rd April 2010

Kick off time at 18:00 CET

Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock

Current leaders, Kaiserslautern, got a very important win at Bielefeld, despite losing at halftime. They were a bit lucky to score the second goal so late in the match, because Bielefeld’s defender tripped and Lakic got the header which gave ‘Lautern an 8-point lead over 3rd placed Augsburg and a 7-point lead over St. Pauli, practically securing the top spot and direct promotion to the Bundesliga I.

On the other hand, Hansa Rostock lost a very important match in the dying moments for the second time in a row, despite being ahead at halftime. This time it was rivals Frankfurt who turned things around in added time and that result left Hansa all alone in 16th place, 3 points away from Frankfurt and 3 points ahead of Koblenz. They don’t have much room for error, so they have to try and get whatever they can from this match, which will probably turn into a fiesta for the hosts who need 1 point to secure their promotion to the top division. If the hosts play at full strength, they will win it, however they have shown some inconsistency lately and given the fact that Hansa are highly motivated I won’t put any of my money on the home win.

Betting suggestion: No bet.
 

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St. Pauli vs Koblenz


This match has many similarities to the previous one. Again, it’s a top team against one of the bottom teams, at home, with the visitors being highly motivated. However there is one major difference. The hosts are also highly motivated!

After losing at Berlin last week, St Pauli are again just 1 point ahead of Augsburg and with 3 matches yet to be played, this is a must-win for them to avoid the playoffs against a Bundesliga squad that’s probably better than Augsburg and surely far better than Koblenz. On the other hand, the visitors are in good shape, they’ve only lost 1 of their last 6 matches, but they couldn’t hold on to the win last week against Karslruher, which would have brought them just 1 point away from the play-out spot.

They haven’t achieved anything remarkable away from home against superior opponents during the 2nd round, plus the first-round match between the teams ended in an impressive St. Pauli win by 1-5. Of course Koblenz have improved since then, but given the fact that the top team are highly motivated here I can’t pick anything but the home win, despite having supported the visitors in their recent matches.

Betting suggestion: Home win (at 1.45 at Bwin)
 

Karlsruher vs Ahlen

The hosts got some decisive results during the past few weeks, beating Hansa at home and taking one point against Koblenz away from home, all by late goals. They haven’t lost any of their last 4 matches and during the last 7 matches they’ve collected the same amount of points as Kaiserslautern (12).

They are sitting in 14th place, 7 points away from Hansa and the play-out spot, and they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent than Ahlen in order to put an end to their worries regarding relegation. Ahlen have already been mathematically relegated to the 3rd division and that’s not due to any unfortunate events, other than having by far the worst squad in the league.
They’ve lost all of their last 6 games, in fact they lost by 2 goals all 3 matches they played away from home during this time! In total, they’ve scored just 18 goals in 31 matches.

It looks like Karlsruher fans will be sleeping peacefully after this match, without any relegation worries in their minds.

Betting suggestion: Home win (around 1.45 at Bwin)
 

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Saturday 24th April 2010

Kick off time at 13:00 CET

Aachen vs Gruether Furth

Aachen got the win they needed last week against Ahlen away from home, so now they can enjoy the remaining 3 matches without any worries regarding relegation. Greuther Furth were involved in that “special” match against Paderborn, where both teams needed 1 point to avoid relegation mathematically and… they got it (at some great odds too)! That was the third consecutive 1-1 draw for Greuther Furth. They’ve lost only 1 of their last 9 games.

The hosts have also lost just 1 of their last 6 matches.
It could be another draw here, otherwise the hosts may have the upper hand since they are playing at home, however unless any major news break out regarding this match, there’s no point in going any further since I can’t find anything valuable to place my money on here.

Betting suggestion: No bet.

 

Duisburg vs Paderborn

The hosts lost the critical match against Augsburg away from home, so they are now 8 points away from 3rd place, which practically gives them no hope of making it to the playoff spot. Of course, they have a realatively easy schedule, but they are not even in 4th place, they are in 5th.

Paderborn got the point they needed thanks to a penalty kick last week against Greuther Furth away from home, so they can relax now as they got rid of any relegation worries they might have had. Their results away from home are far from impressive, but the same goes for Duisburg’s result at home. They have the same results as Frankfurt, that are in 15th place. Moral is low on the home side, but they are playing in front of their own fans, so they could try a little bit harder in order to please them and give them a convincing performance that will bring hope of succeeding in getting promoted to the top division next year.

Betting suggestion: Home win (1.80 at Bwin, low stakes)