As we approach the end of the season, most of the teams in the Bundesliga I still have a lot to fight for. The battle continues for the Championship, the Champions League tickets, the Europa League tickets (with many candidates) and even at the bottom of the table we now have even more teams trying to avoid relegation.

Needless to say, we should be in for a very interesting weekend.

Saturday 24th April 2010

Kick off time at 15:30 CET

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger

Just by looking at the table, you can instantly realize that the visitors are desperate to win this match, while the hosts have no real need for points. After Bochum lost their Friday night match against Stuttgart and Hannover lost theirs against Leverkuzen, there is no scenario that puts Hoffenheim in the danger zone.
On the other hand, Hamburger are 5 points away from 6 place and since the goal is 5th, they look like they have a mountain to climb, because that’s 8 points away.

Last week, Hamburger were playing against Mainz, that also had no need for points, but they lost 0-1 at home. Even though they conceded an early goal, they just couldn’t turn things around.
Hoffenheim were playing at Dortmund and even though they didn’t try very hard, they still got the draw thanks to a late own goal. They are usually strong when playing at home, they have some very skilled attackers and they will be facing a tired opponent, since Hamburger are still competing in the Europa League. They drew 0-0 with Fulham at home this Thursday and still have to travel to London for the 2nd leg this week.

Hoffenheim haven’t won any of their last 7 games, while Hamburger have won just one of their last 6. I would suggest to avoid betting on this match, or if you’d prefer pick either the home win or the draw at some nice odds (2.80 and 3.40 at Skybet).

Betting suggestion: No bet.

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Kick off time at 17:30 CET

Freiburg vs Wolfsburg

After 3 consecutive wins, Wolfsburg couldn’t win the match that mattered the most, last week, as Werder’s attackers were simply unstoppable once again, especially during the second half. That defeat has left them 7 points away from 6th place, so they know they can’t make it to the top-5 anymore.

On the other hand, Freiburg won their all-important match against Nurnberg last week and they moved up to 16th place, tied with Nurnberg and Bochum. This is a great opportunity to gain advantage over their rivals, since Bochum already lost their match this week and they still have to play against Bayern and Hannover. So if Freiburg win this, they may need just 1 more point to avoid relegation.

The regulars, Djeko-Graffite-Misimovic, are expected to play for Wolfsburg, so given their attack will be strong (add the fact that both defenses are weak), we can expect quite a few goals to be scored here.

Betting suggestion: Over 2.5 goals (1.60 at expekt)
 

Saturday 24th April 2010

Kick off time at 15:30 CET


Leverkuzen vs Hannover

Both teams have a common goal. Get the 3 points from this match. Another thing they have in common is their terrible form. In fact, the hosts have won just 1 out of their last 9 games and they’ve only got 1 point from their last 5. Hannover beat Schalke a fortnight ago, however they were crushed by an unstoppable Bayern Munich last week. The humiliating 7-0 score was a major blow in the squad’s confidence, especially since they have to play away from home once again against one of the leaders. The positive side for Hannover is that even if they lose this one, they may still have a good chance to avoid relegation, since they’ll be facing inferior opponents in the last 2 games.

On the other hand, we stated here before that if Leverkuzen can’t bounce back, they won’t just lose the Championship, which they’ve now lost mathematically, but much more than that. They are now tied with Werder Bremen in 3rd and 4th place and if the championship ended today, they’d take 4th place due to lower goal difference. To make matters even worse, Stuttgart, who beat them last week, are closing the gap dangerously (currently at 4 points). So the hosts may even end up finishing below 5th place!

Last week they put up a good fight against Stuttgart. Even with a man down, they created some good chances to win the match, but finally lost it by a late goal.

Hannover have collected some points against teams similar to Leverkuzen, however for the Aspirins it’s now or never, so I believe they will win this.

Betting suggestion: Odds on the home win are terrible. No bet.
 

Gladbach vs Bayern Munich

Bayern were lucky enough to be playing the first leg of the semi-final against Lyon at home, so they didn’t have to go through a long road trip due to the ash cloud and they won by 1-0, a score which gives them a great chance to participate in this year’s Champions League Final. They are even luckier to be playing against Gladbach, one of the weakest teams with no aspirations anymore, since they have already avoided relegation. The only downside is that they are playing away from home and they have lost some valuable points against opponents at the same level as Gladbach, plus they have the 2nd leg of the semifinal to play this Tuesday, so they may save some strength for that match and given the fact that they have a much higher goal difference than Schalke and an easier schedule in the final 2 matches, a draw here won’t change anything at the top of the table.

Given the circumstances, odds on the away win are low. Bayern are in great shape, but they also have other things drawing their attention right now. I wouldn’t make any predictions lightly here.

Betting suggestion: No bet.
 

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Hertha Berlin vs Schalke

This could be the most interesting match of the weekend. Schalke are still fighting for the title, having secured 2nd place and their presence in the next Champions League group stage. Hertha tried their best against Frankfurt away from home last week, but once again they lost the lead when they had it and couldn’t turn any of their late chances into a winning goal. Everyone was very disappointed after the match because they are still last, 5 points away from the play-out spot and they really have a mountain to climb in order to avoid relegation. I’d say it’s a mountain that can’t be climbed. They have to face the top-3 teams in their last 3 games and just to maintain any hopes they may still have, they have to defeat all 3 of them. They don’t need a miracle, they need… 3 miracles!

Goalkeeper Neuer did it again for Schalke, or, to be more specific, he did it again against Schalke. This guy is unbelievable. After conceding 2 humiliating goals against Hannover, which cost Schalke the lead in the Bundesliga, he gave away another goal last week against Gladbach. This time he was lucky enough to have his teammates in good shape, so Schalke won it.

It looks like he’ll be playing again with the regulars this week though. Hertha will surely create some chances, so with such a liability in the keeper’s spot I won’t be putting any money on the away win, which is offered at around 1.95, much less than Stuttgart’s win at 2.70 here a fortnight ago.

Betting suggestion: No bet.
 

Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt

The hosts are in 9th place, the visitors in 10th, just 1 point between them. Neither can make it to 5th place. Neither have worries regarding relegation. This could be a very interesting match. Both teams are in good shape. Last week Frankfurt drew 2-2 at home with Hertha, a result which hurt the visitors far more than the hosts.

Mainz achieved something bigger, as they beat Hamburger away from home by 1-0. It was a match without many chances and after Mainz took the lead in the first half, it was quite clear that they wouldn’t have any serious problems to maintain that lead until the end, just like they had done in their previous match against Dortmund at home. Their games lately have had only a very few goals in them. They seem to be winning every match where they take the lead first and lose the matches they concede first.

However, I believe this match will be played on a different basis, since both teams will want to be positive in their game and please their fans, especially the home team. We could see more goals than usual.

Betting suggestion: Home win and over 2.5 goals (at 2.25 and 1.95 respectively at Bwin.com) low stakes.
 

Nurnberg vs Dortmund

Dortmund must have some sort of a plague. I can’t explain why they couldn’t just maintain the lead against Hoffenheim for 3 more minutes. Their opponents had zero chances until the 88th minute when… Hummels scored against his own team. Also, a goal was disallowed for BVB early in the second half, plus they had some injuries during the first half, but they were dominating the field during the whole second half and lost numerous chances to score another goal. Thus, they lost another chance to take 3rd place and to make matters worse, not only did they drop to 5th, but Stuttgart are looking very strong on 6th, just 3 points behind.

Nurnberg on the other hand, lost the all-important match against Freiburg last week, a result that brought both teams tied with Bochum in the play-out spot and even though they have the best goal difference of the three, it’s only a narrow margin. Plus they have another tough match against Hamburger away from home next week, so if they lose both matches they may even drop to 17th.

So, with even more pressure on the visitors this week, some potential absences due to injuries and with Nurnberg fighting to avoid relegation, I must say I seriously doubt whether the visitors should be considered the favourites here or the hosts. According to the bookmakers it’s the visitors, so I will try my luck with the hosts. Another choice is under 2.5 goals, since both teams will play very carefully not to concede a goal.

Betting suggestion: Home win draw-no-bet, or under 2.5 goals.

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Kick off time at 18:30 CET

Werder Bremen vs Koln

This will be the only pick on which I will use high stakes this week and I believe the reason is obvious.
On the one hand, we have Werder Bremen scoring 4 goals in three of their last 4 matches. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 matches (same as Stuttgart) and they’ve scored 17 goals (an average of 3 goals per game). They have climbed all the way up to 3rd place and they are looking to stay there. Last week, they put up another impressive performance, beating Wolfsburg away from home by 4-2, despite losing by 2-1 at halftime. They have scored a total of 67 goals in the league, more than any other team.

On the other hand, Koln have achieved something quite remarkable! They have conceded only 11 goals in 15 matches away from home, which is far less than any other team (Bayern and Schalke have conceded 16!). Moreover, they have won both their latest games away from home by a total score of 6-1! However, when playing against Werder, previous achievements mean nothing, since their strikers take the game to a whole new level. Plus, Koln wanted to beat Bochum last week, they did it and they are 9 points clear of the danger zone. If either Nurnberg or Hannover don’t win their matches, before this one kicks off, Koln will be mathematically reassured they can’t be relegated. Apart from the home win, I believe we will once again see many goals scored here.

Betting suggestion: Home win and over 2.5 goals

Friday 23rd April 2010

Kick off time at 20:00 CET

Bochum vs Stuttgart

Two teams in desperate need of the points, but for different reasons, face each other in this week’s opening match. Bochum have been going from bad to worse lately and their terrible form was confirmed once again last week against Koln away from home, a match they lost 2-0. That result means Koln have no relegation worries anymore, while Bochum are now tied with Nurnberg and Freiburg in the play-out spot, while Hannover are just 1 point behind them.

On the other hand, Stuttgart confirmed their excellent form against Leverkuzen (who played for over 1 hour with one man less) and even though they are still 3 points away from 5th place, they are also only 4 points away from 3rd and the Champions League playoffs.

The hosts have had terrible results at home, just 2 wins from 15 matches, while Stuttgart have won 5 games in a row and are looking pretty confident to make this the 6th one. Bochum will face Bayern at Munich next week, so they have to try and get whatever they can from this match. Stuttgart have a relatively easy schedule, so if they win this match, they may even take 3rd place! If they don’t win, they may not take even 5th!

All in all, both teams must win. Stuttgart are at their best and they are the better team here.

Betting suggestion: Away win (around 1.83 at Bwin.com)

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