Just 2 weeks before the end of the season in the Bundesliga I, we have reached the climax of the battles for the Championship, the Champions League and Europa League spots, as well as the relegation and play-out spots.

Saturday 1st May 2010

Kick off time at 15:30 CET

Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg

The hosts will once again have the support of about 80.000 fans. This is their last home game this season. They are currently in 5th place, just 1 point away from 3rd, so they must win this in order to keep in touch with the Champions League ticket.

Wolfsburg on the other hand, have no aspirations any more in the league, since they are 10 points away from 5th place and 18 points clear of the danger zone. However, it’s likely that all the regulars will play, incuding excellent attackers Dzeko, Grafite and Misimovic. Their defensive record however is terrible, with 56 goals conceded they are the worst among the top 13 teams, plus 23 of those goals have come from set pieces, which is the worst record in the league. For Dortmund, it looks like both Barrios and Valdez will be in the starting 11.

History favors Dortmund, especially when playing at home, however just by looking at the two previous seasons a very interesting, and probably very important, clue emerges. Wolfsburg beat Dortmund last year during matchday 31 by 3-0 at home and went on to win the Bundesliga by just 2 points from Bayern, while Dortmund took 6th place and lost the Europa League ticket to Hamburger also by 2 points.

Two years ago, Wolfsburg beat Dortmund again, this time away from home by 4-2 in the final round of the Bundesliga. Dortmund had already secured their ticket to the UEFA Cup as a Cup Finalist, while Wolfsburg desperately needed the points to take 5th place and secure their UEFA Cup ticket, which they did.
So the question is, isn’t it time for Wolfsburg to return the favor?
My pick is the home win, and the odds are dropping fast!

Betting suggestion: Home win (currently at 1.67 at Bwin)
 

Bayer Leverkuzen vs Hertha Berlin

The hosts are in 4th place, tied with Werder who are in 3rd, at 57 points. They know Werder have a very difficult away game at Schalke this week, so the odds for 3rd place are in their favor (1.72 vs 2.90). Stefan Kiessling, the league’s top-scorer with 21 goals, 1/3 of the Leverkuzen’s total goals scored, will play in front along side Derdiyok, while Toni Kroos, who has scored 9 goals and delivered another 9 assists will be in the left flank.

Hertha put up a good fight recently, but couldn’t grab a win in their last 3 matches, so their chances of survival have diminished. Yet a scenario still exists that puts them in the play-out spot, even in 15th place. Of course it will take a miracle to confirm that scenario, but it seems like everyone in the squad have some faith that they can still avoid relegation. After all, they are favored in any ties that may occur between them and any of the teams within their reach (Nurnberg, Bochum and Hannover). However, should any bad news arrive (Hannover are playing against Gladbach at home and Nurnberg against Hamburger away) I expect the players to partially or totally give up this match, since Leverkuzen will be pushing hard for the win here.

Betting suggestion: Home win (1.33 at Bet365)



Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim

This should be a very interesting match. Both teams have shown that they won’t do any favors to any of the teams that desperately need the points. They‘ve scored 5 and 6 goals respectively during the last two weeks. Frankfurt are usually strong when playing at home. This will probably be a very nice match to watch, I expect both teams to produce some impressive play and score quite a few goals. Since all results share the same odds in my opinion, there could be some value in the draw result here (offered at around 3.50), however I believe that a much safer pick is “both teams to score”.

Betting suggestion: Both Teams to Score (1.62 at Bwin)

Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen

This is probably the most important match of the season for both teams. The hosts know that winning both matches won’t be enough to get them the title. They need Bayern to drop some points as well. Last week Schalke beat Hertha away from home thanks to a late goal scored by Westermann. Bayern drew 1-1 at Gladbach, but thanks to Miro Klose that point they took kept them on top (Bayern are favored in case of a tie due to higher goal difference).

Werder were very lucky to beat Koln last week. They couldn’t produce a lot of chances during the 90 minutes, however during the 1st minute of added time Koln’s Geromel used his hand to keep the ball out of the goal, so inevitably he faced the red card and Torsten Frings calmly executed the penalty kick to score the only goal of the match. Werder are tied with Leverkuzen at 57 points and at the moment they are favored in this tie thanks to a higher goal difference. However, there are only 2 goals separating these two and Werder must play against Schalke and Hamburger, while Leverkuzen play against Hertha and Gladbach. So perhaps the visitors here won’t stop pushing for another goal in case they take the lead. In addition, the hosts will likely present a very offensive formation, with Farfan, Kuranyi and Edu in front, plus Rakitic behind them. Which brings me to my conclusion. There is a very good chance that we will see goals from both sides here and probably a total of over 2 goals. So my main pick will be “both teams to score”.

Betting suggestion: Both Teams to Score (1.53 at Bwin)




Bayern Munich vs VfL Bochum 1848

As soon as you look at the odds here, you’ll realize that there’s a hot favorite in this match. Bayern are currently at the top of the table and they will win the title if they win their last 2 matches. Last week they equalized Gladbach in the second half and that result kept them at the top of the table, however they may not have the luxury to afford another loss of points.

On the other hand, Bochum certainly can’t afford to lose any more points and what’s even worse for them is that they were not counting on this match to collect any points when they were making their plans for this season. However, their last match will be against Hannover at home, so that will be the decisive match regarding relegation for both teams. They haven’t won any of their last 10 games and they’ve collected just 1 point from their last 8, a terrible record by all means, which forced the club to sack the head coach Heiko Herrlich, so former player Darius Wosz will manage the team for the remaining 2 weeks. However, Bochum can be very dangerous in counter-attack, which also Bayern’s weak point, plus the hosts will be tired from the trip to Lyon last Tuesday, where they checked their ticket to this year’s Champions League Final in Madrid.

Bochum will try their best here, so since there is no value on the home win, I would try my luck with the visitors on a small stakes bet.

Betting suggestion: Away team to score (2.15 at Bwin)

Hannover vs Gladbach

The hosts are standing with their back against the wall. They are currently in 17th place, 1 point behind Bochum and Nurnberg, so in case they lose and both rivals win they will be directly relegated. Gladbach on the other hand are sitting comfortably at 38 points, so they have no concerns regarding relegation. Last week, the hosts suffered another heavy defeat, this time against Leverkuzen by 3-0. Add the 7-0 defeat at Munich and they’ve created a record of 0-10 goals over the last two weeks. The visitors drew 1-1 with Bayern last week, proving they won’t do anybody any favors. Their away record is in fact the worst in the Bundesliga, however they’ve had many narrow defeats against far superior opponents so I can’t imagine them losing this match hands down. Hannover are counting on Bochum losing their match against Bayern this week, so they hope to overtake them by beating Gladbach and head to next week’s relegation-final with the draw favoring them, however they can’t focus on calculations just yet, because the slightest mistake could prove fatal here.

I don’t like the odds on the home win, however I believe that this will be the outcome of this match.

Betting suggestion: Home win (1.91 at Bwin, low stakes)
 

Koln vs Freiburg

Starting 3 weeks ago, Koln beat Hoffenheim and Bochum and that sealed the deal for them. Last week, they deserved a point against Werder away from home, however they couldn’t cope with the last-minute pressure and lost 1-0. At 37 points, they are 9 points away from the danger zone, so they have nothing to worry about.

Freiburg seem to have pulled it off. They won 2 games in a row, including the decisive match against Nurnberg, plus they’ve collected 11 points from their last 6 games (that’s more than Schalke or Bayern)! They have 31 points, 3 more than Nurnberg and Bochum, however they are safer than that. Let me explain myself. Bochum and Hannover will face each other next week. So, first of all, Freiburg need just 1 point from their last 2 games to avoid direct relegation under any scenario, because it’s impossible for both Bochum and Hannover to reach 32 points. Plus if Bochum lose their match against Bayern this week and Hannover don’t win both their matches, then Freiburg will avoid the play-out spot as well, just by getting 1 point.

My point is that their main concern will be to try and keep their opponents away from their goal in this match, I believe Freiburg will play very defensively and their formation will likely be 4-5-1 with Demba Cisse all alone in front. Koln have nothing to lose, so they are expected to present a very offensive 4-3-3 formation with Tosic, Novakovic and Podolski all in front, as they will be looking to please their fans in their last home game this season.

I really can’t pick anything in this match, but if you’d like to put some money on it, consider the “under 2.5 goals” and a risky, but very rewarding, “away team not to score” picks!

Betting suggestion: No bet



Stuttgart vs Mainz

The first fact I’d like to mention regarding this match is it’s history. Stuttgart have never lost to Mainz, in fact they’ve won all 3 matches they hosted.

Another fact that favors the hosts is that they are in excellent condition, as they have won 6 games in a row, including leaders Bayern and former leaders Leverkuzen. During those 6 games they’ve scored 11 goals and conceded only 3. In fact, Marica has scored 5 of those goals and Cacau 4, so that makes it 9 out of 11 goals score by their attacking duo. Both players are expected to be in the starting eleven again this week. Mainz are having some issues in the dressing room. Last week they hosted an extraordinary event during their 3-3 tie with Frankfurt. Andreas Ivanschitz came on early in the second half and delivered a good performance, however the coach substituted the… substitution about 10 minutes before the end. Needless to say, the player was furious, kicking whatever he came across, yelling at everyone and later on he stated that he has “never been treated like that in his career before”.

Despite their efforts, Stuttgart are still 3 points away from 5th place and 4 points away from 3rd and with just 2 games left in the season it will be very difficult to finish any higher than 6th place. I would like to back them with high stakes again this week, but the odds are very low, so there’s not enough value on the home win. Mainz have the clean sheet record this season so that could point us towards picking the under 2.5 goals bet, however I will not be risking any of my money on this match.

Betting suggestion: No bet
 

Hamburger vs Nurnberg

I am very impatient about this match, because I would really like to see how the hosts will perform. The reason is of course the fact that just 40 hours ago they were playing the 2nd leg of the Europa League semi-final in London against Fulham, which they lost, along with the ticket to the final which is hosted in their own stadium, despite taking the lead early in the first half. What makes this match even more interesting is the fact that Nurnberg must win it to gain a big advantage over rivals Bochum and Hannover in the battle for relegation. After losing 3 games in a row, this is the perfect chance for Nurnberg to bounce back against an opponent that will be very tired and without a coach since they sacked their head coach Bruno Labbadia and assigned Rcardo Moniz to take his place. Moniz stated that his side will give everything until the end of the season, despite their disappointment after losing the match against Fulham, however they come from a humiliating 5-1 defeat against Hoffenheim and there are no signs that the team can recover so soon, especially after being forced to play twice a week for over 2 months now with the team’s fatigue at an all-time high, while moral has hit rock bottom.

Odds on the away win are dropping (yesterday they were somewhere between 4.50 and 5.00) and those on the home win are going up!

Betting suggestion: Away win (currently at 4.00 at Bwin)