Just 2 matchdays left in the Bundesliga II and things are quite clear regarding both the top and the bottom of the table, with the exception of the playoff and playout spots that remain open. My main picks for this week are Hansa Rostock and FSV Frankfurt at some nice odds!

Sunday 2nd May 2010

Kick off time at 17:30 CET


Hansa Rostock vs Energie Cottbus
The visitors beat Union Berlin at home last week by 4-2. That was the third consecutive home game in which they scored 4 goals! With that result, Cottbus reached 43 points, 8 points away from the danger zone, so they don’t have to collect any more points in order to avoid relegation.

On the other hand, Hansa Rostock lost their important matches against Karlsruher and Frankfurt recently, but last week they beat Kaiserslautern away from home, so they still have a chance to avoid the playout spot. They are 1 point behind Frankfurt and they are favored in case of a tie, thanks to better goal difference. So they will try to win both matches and hope that Frankfurt will drop some points.

So far, German teams have proven that they don’t do any favors easily, however Hansa are usually strong when playing at home, Cottbus have a weak away record and the fact that Hansa desperately need the points will make them push hard, perhaps too hard for the Cottbus players to put up with.

Betting suggestion: Home win (1.75 at expekt)

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Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs FSV Frankfurt
The visitors got the point they needed against Augsburg last week, in order to remain above Hansa. This means that if they beat the worst two teams in the league, Ahlen and Koblenz that have both already relegated, they will avoid the playout spot. This match should be quite easy in theory. Ahlen have been a 3rd  division club for quite some time now and they’ve lost 7 games in a row. They are by far the worst team in the league and even though this will be their last match in front of their own fans, I can’t imagine them stealing any points from Frankfurt at this stage.

Frankfurt have taken the second half of the season more seriously. In the last 13 matches they’ve got 6 wins and 5 draws. They are at the top of the “recent form” table. Among their recent achievements are some vital wins against Union, Oberhausen and Hansa, which shows that Frankfurt are more than capable of delivering results when it matters against squads of the same quality. Ahlen are not even remotely as good as any of those teams.

Betting suggestion: Away win (1.90 at expekt)

Greuther Furth vs St. Pauli
Again, a match where only one side are in need of the points. The hosts have been sitting in the middle of the table for quite some time now and their latest 4 matches all ended in a draw. Two of those matches were against Augsburg and Duisburg away from home, two teams that were battling for 3rd place, so they will be doing St. Pauli a favor if they let them win this one. However the visitors need just 3 points in their last 2 games to secure 2nd place and direct promotion to the Bundesliga I, so they are highly motivated here, plus they are a better team than both Duisburg and Augsburg.

They’ve won 9 away games already and they have the best away goal difference in the league (32-18). They’ve lost both of their most recent away games, so I don’t think that a 3rd away defeat in a row is in order here, however we have to consider backing the away win with a draw, especially since St. Pauli will face Paderborn at home in one week and they can get all they points they will need from that match.

Betting suggestion: Away win (draw-no-bet) at around 1.62

Augsburg vs Munich 1860
The hosts need 2 points to secure 3rd place, which will allow them to claim their spot in the Bundesliga I through a playoff match. However, they can still take 2nd place and direct promotion to the top league, by winning both their matches and hope that St. Pauli will get no more than 2 points from their two matches. They have the best home record in the league.

The visitors are near the middle of the table, they have a very poor away record and no aspirations any more. In their previous away game they were defeated by Dusseldorf, so I think it will be a big surprise if they don’t lose this match, however I would not recommend using high stakes here since the odds on the home win are not as high as they should be. Top-scorer Thurk should play as expected in front for Augsburg and the bottom line is I expect a home win here, either by a narrow or large margin.

Betting suggestion: Home win (1.50 at bet365)

In rest of the games this Sunday, Oberhausen host Dusseldorf and Union host Bielefeld. Both hosts need 1 point in the remaining 2 games to mathematically avoid taking the playout spot and I believe they will get what they need. In fact I believe Union will beat Bielefeld.

Koblenz host Kaiserslautern. The hosts were unable to win any of their last 3 games so naturally they will play in the 3rd division next season. The visitors, being the leaders, are the only team that have already secured their promotion to the Bundesliga I next season. They have been giving away quite a few points recently, with Oberhausen, Union and Hansa all benefiting from their bad shape. They may want to grab the win here, to finish in 1st place and Koblenz showed against St. Pauli last week that when they are not at their best, they are very weak. However, I wouldn’t in any case use high stakes on the visitors here.