We have reached the end of the season! Bayern Munich took advantage of Schalke’s defeat last week and won the title. Schalke will play in the next Champions League Group Stage.

Hertha put up a good fight but couldn’t hold on to the win (again) and they were relegated. We still have Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen fighting for 3rd place, Dortmund and Stuttgart for 5th and finally Hannover, Nurnburg and Bochum are after 15th place, 16th leads to the play-out match, while 17th leads directly to the 2nd division.

This means that quite a few squads have no need for points coming into this final round, so I’ll only include the most important matches of round 34 in this preview.

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Saturday 8th May 2010

Kick off time at 15:30 CET

The Battle for Relegation

Bochum vs Hannover
This is a life or death match! Both teams need to win it, in order to take 15th place. In fact, Bochum might need more than ‘just’ a win. They’ll need to win by at least 1 goal more than Nurnburg’s hypothetical win over Koln. Same situation for Hannover, a draw here won’t be enough, because even if Nurnberg win by just 1 goal they’ll have the upper hand in that tie. However, a draw here will at least keep Hannover above Bochum, so they will naturally take 16th place and head for the play-out match. So, Hannover may settle for a draw, while Bochum will push as hard as they can for the win. Win? What’s that? Bochum haven’t won any of their last 11 games! In fact, they’ve lost 8 out of their last 9 matches (that’s only 1 point from 9 matches), while Hannover have collected 13 points from their last 9 matches. Bochum have the second-worst home record this season (only 2 wins) and Hannover have the second-worst away record in the league. However, the visitors have already beaten Nurnberg, Koln and Freiburg away from home, teams that are at the same level as Bochum.

It looks like Bochum will play in 4-4-2 formation and go for the win from the very start of this match, while Hannover will respond with a 4-5-1 formation and hope to strike in counter-attack.
About 10 years ago, Bochum were constantly between Bundesliga I and Bundesliga II, however the last time they relegated was in 2004. Hannover returned to the Bundesliga I in 2002 and they’ve stayed there ever since.
Verdict: A very unpredictable match, there’s some value on the draw offered at 3.60 at bet365 and perhaps both teams to score (offered at low odds, around 1.53)




Nurnberg vs Koln
Another match of massive importance here, however only for the hosts. Koln are safe at 38 points, while Nurnber need to win in order to avoid direct relegation and at the same time hope that Hannover won’t beat Bochum, in order to take 15th place and avoid the play-out match as well.

What makes this match really interesting is the fact that Koln have beaten both Bochum and Hannover during their recent games, so the way the’ll approach this match could make a difference in the battle for relegation. Tosic is looking to put up a good performance as he may return to Manchester United, so Nurnberg won’t have an easy task at hand. With Koln presenting a very offensive 4-3-3 formation, the hosts will look after their defense, as a draw may not be the end of the world for them, because if Bochum don’t win then they’ll take 16th place and head for the play-out match.
Verdict: Home win, 1.55 at bwin. I would also recommend betting live on this match, according to the current result of the other match.
 

Battle for the Champions League ticket (3rd place)

Werder Bremen vs Hamburger
The hosts triumphed in last week’s derby against Schalke away from home and confirmed their excellent form during the past 2 months. They’ve won 7 of their last 8 matches and they’ve only lost 1 of their last 13 (10 wins and 2 draws). Hamburger beat Nurnberg by an impressive 4-0, just about 40 hours after being eliminated from the Europa League Final which will be held this week at their own stadium. Had they qualified for the final, this match today would be a certain home win, however I believe Hamburger will want to end their season with a good result, plus Werder probably won’t need all 3 points here. A draw will suffice. That’s because Leverkusen will have to beat Gladbach away from home by 5 goals in order to top Werder’s goal difference.

There’s another fact that makes this match more interesting. Werder have a Cup Final against Bayern Munich coming up. Of course, all the regulars will play in this match as well, however Bremen’s presence in the Cup Final opens up another Europa League ticket via the championship table. Hamburger have a higher goal difference than Stuttgart so in case they win here and Stuttgart lose, they’ll take that ticket. However, the hosts look simply unstoppable.
Verdict: Home win, 1.65 at expekt.



Gladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen got only a point from last week’s match against Hertha and this means they’ll have to beat Gladbach by 5 goals only to put some pressure on Werder to beat Hamburger in order to take 3rd place. Well, first of all they’ll have to ‘just’ beat Gladbach if they are to hope for anything at all, since they’ve won just 1 of their last 7 matches (2 of their last 11)! They’ve gone from the top of the table all the way down to 4th place, unable to beat even the worst team in the league. Friedrich, who scored the equalizer last week, is suspended and another regular, Barnetta, is injured. Leverkusen were undefeated during the first 2/3 of the championship, however they have the worst away record among the top-9 teams, just 4 wins from 16 away games.

Gladbach lost 6-1 last week against Hannover, clearly showing that they are mainly thinking about their summer holiday, so coach Michael Frontzeck might throw in some young players, who will be more interested in playing well here.
Verdict: Away win, 1.75 at expekt

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Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart
The hosts have had no need for points for quite some time now, yet they drew 1-1 at Dortmund, they destroyed Hamburger by 5-1 and last week they beat Frankfurt away from home thanks to a late goal scored by the young Ghanaian striker, Prince Tagoe, who is likely to start this match as a regular, joined by many other young players. That’s because Coach Ralf Rangnick has ruled out Matthias Jaissle, Demba Ba, Per Nilsson, Andreas Ibertsberger, Timo Hildebrand and Kevin Conrad, and is likely to shuffle his line-up to determine which want-away players he can offload this summer.

Stuttgart have to give Marica a raise. He has scored 7 goals in the last 7 games and last week he scored twice within 2 minutes to earn his side a valuable point, that gives them the luxury of playing for 2 results this week, either a win or a draw. Cacau and Marica will start the match, as expected, so we should expect Stuttgart to score at least once here.
Verdict: Away win, 2.35 at bwin



Freiburg vs Dortmund
Dortmund have done it again! After beating some highly motivated and/or powerful opponents, such as Bochum, Nurnberg, Leverkusen and Werder Bremen, they failed to beat teams without aspirations, such as Mainz, Hoffenheim and, last week, Wolfsburg at home, which was another 1-1 draw. That result has left them no hope of taking 3rd place, while they have already secured a Europa League spot. They just need 1 point to take 5th place and head straight for the Europa League play-off round instead of the earlier 3rd qualifying round.

Freiburg got what they wanted last week against Koln and they can enjoy their last match this season without worries regarding relegation. They have a terrible home record (they’ve scored only 11 goals), so they’ll look to improve that. Dortmund have a strong squad, they don’t have any new injuries and having lost just 1 of their last 9 games I’d be surprised  if they lose this one.
Verdict: Away win, 1.95 at expekt