You thought it was over, but you were wrong! The German Bundesliga is back with games for the playoffs on both Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga. So...who's going Up and who's going Down?

Bundesliga I playoff match Round 1

Nurnberg vs Augsburg
Tursday 13/05/10 - Kick off at 21.30 CET
The hosts were the team to finish in the play-out spot in the Bundesliga I table (16th), while the visitors finished in 3rd place in the Bundesliga II.

Nurnberg did their part in their last game, they beat Koln 1-0 at home thanks to an amazing free kick by Ottl, just 2 minutes before the end, however Bochum didn’t help them at all, as they lost their life-or-death match against Hannover at home.

Augsburg’s participation in the playoffs had been already decided before the final round in the Bundesliga II. The general impression the visitors gave us during the season is that they are a very powerful squad when playing at home, but at the same time they lose most of their strength when playing away from home. Exactly 1 month ago, they were playing a crucial away match against St. Pauli and they lost by 3-0, practically losing whatever chances they had of taking 2nd place and instant promotion. This is another crucial away game with the same purpose and I believe the result will be the same again. Nurnberg will win this match and head to Augsburg with a clear advantage. Odds on the home win have already dropped and I believe they will keep dropping until the match starts, so if you feel you should follow me on this one, you’d better hurry!

Betting suggestion: Home win (currently at 1.90 at bwin)

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Bundesliga II playoff match Round 1

Ingolstadt vs Hansa Rostock
Friday 14/05/10 - Kick off at 21.30 CET
This should be a very interesting game. The hosts finished 3rd in the 3rd division, however they had the best overall goal difference by far in the league, demonstrating some nice attacking abilities as they scored a total of 72 goals in 38 matches. They scored 44 of those goals at home (an average of 2.3 goals per game). What seems very bizarre is the fact that they’ve had a mixture of some excellent results against the top teams, combined with some very unfortunate draws against the mid-table teams and even more surprisingly both their home defeats were against the very bottom teams.

Hansa had a great chance to avoid this relegation battle, when they hosted Cottbus about 10 days ago, however they missed out on the chances they created, once again confirming their inability to score some important goals, as they finished the season having scored 33 goals in 34 matches (less than 1 per game). Away from home, things were even worse for them, having won just 3 games and lost 11. I believe that if Hansa were playing in the 3rd division they would have finished somewhere in the middle of the table, however this is a battle quite different than any of the matches played all season and in terms of experience we shouldn’t forget that Hansa were recently relegated from the top division. Last season both teams were playing in the 2nd division and Ingolstadt beat Hansa at home by 4-2, while the 2nd leg match ended in a draw, however it was the hosts that were lelegated at the end of the season.

If I had to pick anything I’d pick a home win here (offered around 2.40), or perhaps cover it by betting on the draw-no-bet home win (at 1.75), but I’ve found something with a little bit more value!

Betting suggestion: First half home team goals over 0.5 (offered at 2.20 at sportingbet)

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