English Npower Championship Season 2010-11 Preview
It's a debate that's raged in pubs up and down Britain for years: if the Old Firm played in England, how well would they measure up?
Now it seems Gordon Strachan is on a mission to provide us with the most definitive answer yet after recruiting half-a-dozen players from Glasgow and we reckon it could be worth backing his Middlesbrough side to win the Championship. The second tier wasn't much of a spectacle last term once Newcastle set about proving how genuine Premier League pedigree can trump all other factors, and now Boro look capable of doing likewise following a summer of heavy investment. There was nothing spectacular about what Strachan did in his first six months at the Riverside but results and performances definitely picked up once he had completed his first round of transfer business in January, and those deals were done on the cheap. Now we should trust that the former Celtic boss knows exactly what he's doing because no person is better placed to compare the standards at the top of the SPL against the Championship following four seasons at Parkhead and he clearly thinks he is on to a winner. And it's not just the calibre of signings they've acquired that makes Boro so attractive, it's also the balance to the squad that Strachan has achieved with at least two players in direct competition for each position and not much deadwood floating around to make his life difficult. Understandably, the Teessiders have established themselves as clear favourites in the outright market and their price is dropping all the time. They were 8/1 to win the title barely a fortnight ago but we believe 11/2 would be the back-off point, so there's ample value to be had in the 13/2 (best price @ 7.50 at Bwin) still available. Indeed, the case for this bet only becomes stronger when you put their nearest challengers under the microscope. Nottingham Forest are the only other team awarded a single-figure quote and, of course, any team managed by Billy Davies has to be respected. His points-per-game record over six years with three different clubs is simply phenomenal and Forest will surely be there or thereabouts once again, so long as any discontent behind the scenes is kept in check - but therein lies the biggest bone of contention as a punting proposition. Davies has reportedly been at loggerheads with the 'acquisitions committee' at the City Ground for most of the past 12 months and it would come as no great surprise if a missed transfer target or two, combined with a few poor results early doors, brought the relationship to a swift conclusion. Either way, there seems little value in backing the two-time European champions until we know whether or not the board have satisfied Davies in their pursuit of his wish list come the end of August. Assuming stormy waters are avoided, the time to back Forest will be further down the line should they drift in the promotion market. So what of the relegated trio? Well, Burnley (4.00 at Bet365 to be promoted) are deemed most likely to bounce back and it's easy to understand why when you look at the relative degree of continuity in their squad compared with Hull (7.50 at Bet365 to be promoted) and Portsmouth (8.50 at Bet365 to be promoted). However, we see no evidence in Brian Laws' career so far to suggest he can galvanise them instantaneously and gaining the respect of a dressing room so inspired by Owen Coyle two seasons ago could be a tall order. As for the other two, they can both be backed at bigger than 20/1 and while in an ideal world both might have top six claims, it's hard to make a case for either sustaining a bid for the automatic spots given the respective financial uncertainty and turnover of personnel that's required. Elsewhere, the market is showing plenty of respect for QPR (4.50 at Bet365 to be promoted) and Reading (4.33 at Bet365 to be promoted) but we're struggling to envisage a formidable challenge coming from either side for contrasting reasons. In the case of the Rs, they finally have a manager with a proven track record but such has been the level of instability in recent years, it could take Neil Warnock at least another transfer window to really stamp his identity on the place. As for the Royals, they've made tremendous strides under Brian McDermott but there was no pressure when everything came together last season and their squad isn't so strong as to warrant such special attention. The true test of their potential will arrive when they start this campaign on everybody's radar. Beyond that, the belief that Middlesbrough can take this division by the scruff of the neck is perhaps best summed up by the sight of two newly-promoted sides making up the top eight of the market. As such, it stands to reason that the path could be clear for a rank outsider to make a big impression and we have a sneaking suspicion that a challenge could come from Barnsley. A quick glance at last season's final table doesn't give a great deal away but a much clearer picture begins to emerge once you understand that the Tykes finished the season on a sequence of ten winless matches as indifference crept in with several contracts about to expire. Prior to that, the Yorkshire club had picked up 48 points from 30 matches under Mark Robins and that ratio would normally be enough for a top-six finish if maintained over the full 46 games. Those who have followed Robins' career to date will be aware of his talent for squeezing the maximum out of modest resources and he has recruited sensibly over the summer, which should be enough to make a mockery of those who installing them as third-favourites for relegation. There are numerous ways to get Barnsley onside at big prices with 20/1 (best price found at @ 21.00 at Ladbrokes) generally available on them to be promoted, 12/1 for a top six finish but best of the bunch is the 18/1 (@ 18.00 at Betfred) on them landing the handicap with a monster head-start. Coral (offline) are giving up 30 points but we actually prefer the look of Betfred's handicap line, dropping a couple of points only to make it up in spades on many of the potentially dangerous unknown quantities. Either way, the bet promises to be a live runner long into the season whatever happens and a top-six finish for the Tykes would almost certainly bring home the bacon. As we head into the specials markets, it should be pointed out that seven clubs have switched manager during the summer, combined with a further seven who changed manager during the course of last season, all of which makes for quite a minefield among the season match bets. Ian Holloway's impact at Blackpool should serve as a reminder of what can happen when a new man freshens things up and any one of the men starting from scratch is capable of emulating Ollie by surfing the cumulative wave of good fortune on the back of a few early breaks. Therefore, we would preach caution to anyone considering hefty long-term head-to-heads that involve either backing or opposing Bristol City, Coventry, Crystal Palace, Hull, Leicester, Portsmouth and Swansea - unless, of course, you know something we don't! So we'll finish up with a couple of big-priced top goalscorer fancies. The first to catch the eye is Steve Morison at 50/1 (found at Bet365 at 26.00 at Each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4 Betting!). The highly-rated Millwall marksman bagged 21 times in League One last season and he's not the sort to bow to big reputations, so we expect he will relish the step up in class. The 26-year-old Londoner boasts a career record of one goal every two games and we shouldn't be put off by the fact he spent five years of his career in non-league football, a goalscorer is a goalscorer and he can only put the ball in the back of the net at whatever level he plays. Finally, take some of the 66/1 on Gary McSheffrey (great value at Bet365 at 51.00 at Each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4 Betting!) to top the scoring charts. The Coventry forward is back with his hometown club after finally being released from his contract at Birmingham following a frustrating year following surgery on a persistent knee injury. However, he had his finest campaign at this level when Blues were promoted two seasons ago and he has now teamed up with Aidy Boothroyd, a manager who is notorious for squeezing every last drop out of anyone with genuine quality who falls under his watch. The map below shows the locations of the teams participating in the Npower Championship this coming season.