International frendlies: England, Wales
There must be plenty of you out there who agreed with Harry Redknapp when he described Wednesday's clash between England and Hungary as "a meaningless friendly".
"Can someone tell me why you have an international week the week the season is starting?" he asked. No-one seemed able to give him an answer, but England aren't the only ones affected by the August friendlies that no-one wants. All the Home Nations are in action but betting opportunities appear thin on the ground. We'll start with the Wembley clash where the bookies have been focused on markets such as how many people turn up and whether Fabio Capello will resign. That's largely due to the fact that, as ever, England have been priced up short favourites - 1.33 is the best you'll get despite the much-changed nature of Capello's squad. Looking at Hungary, it's hard to criticise the layers too much. The once magnificent Magyars are humbled in the two matches they played prior to the World Cup - finalists Holland (6-1) and Germany (3-0) picking them off easily. They did draw with Russia in March but ended 2009 with a 3-0 defeat to Belgium, who got nowhere near qualifying for South Africa. Clearly these are not good times for a Hungary team which relies heavily on players such as Fulham's Zoltan Gera, Ipswich's Tamas Priskin and Roland Juhasz, of Anderlecht. Sandor Egervari is the new boss but with a lack of quality of his disposal it's hard to see some sort of amazing transformation, especially at Wembley. Whatever you say about England, they rarely lose at home. In fact, home friendlies under Capello have usually resulted in a comfortable victory. Five of the seven games which fall into the 'Capello home friendly' category have seen England ahead at both half time and full time. With that in mind, an involvement in the HT/FT market could be worth a dabble - Bet365 offer a best of 1.90 about that staistic becoming six out of eight. The worry about getting involved with such an odds-on price is, of course, how England react to their World Cup disappointment. Yet they have rarely carried a malaise over in the past - they immediately bounced back from Euro 2004 disappointment and after a poor 2006 World Cup Greece were duly put to the sword in their following match. With the squad shaken up and players haing points to prove, a small play looks the way to go. Moving on, Scotland travel to Sweden in what will be Craig Levein's second match in charge. Having seen off the Czech Republic in his opening match as boss, Levein would have been looking forward to testing his side against more tricky opposition - before this week that is. In recent days, the former Dundee United manager has lost almost a full XI from his squad and it's hard to have any confidence in them now. Punters have already latched on, forcing the layers to shorten up Sweden's price and there appears little value to be had. Wales boss John Toshack feared a similar spate of withdrawals for his side's home clash with Luxembourg but that hasn't materialised. Star men Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale both remain with the squad and it's the latter we fancy at 3.50 (at Bet365)
Bale finished like a train at Spurs last season and if he picks up from where he left off he'll be a handful for a Luxembourg side who have long offered little on the international scene.
While seriously heavy defeats are rare, Luxembourg certainly concede goals regularly and Bale is capable of profiting. Even if he starts at left-back he's sure to be given a licence to attack.
The 21-year-old has also taken free kicks and penalties for his country in the past, so we feel he's worth a punt.
Steve Morison may attract cash in the same market at 2.20 (at Bet365) on his international debut.
The Millwall man scored goals aplenty in League One last season and has now found he qualifies for Wales via a grandparent.
However, we're a little concerned by Wales' scoring record of late - they've failed to score more than two in a game only once in the last two and a half years - so we're put off backing someone to score at such a short price.
Instead we'll stick with Bale who looks better value.
PICKS:
- England v Hungary: England/England to win Half Time/Full Time at 1.90 at Bet365
- Wales v Luxembourg: Gareth Bale to score at anytime 3.50 at Bet365