Premiership 2010-11 Preview: Back hungry United for 19th title
The bookies reckon this is going to be the most open Premier League title race since the top division split from the Football League in 1992 but it could be a case of backing the (Red) Devils you know this season.
Manchester United have won 11 of the 18 Premier League titles, including four out of six the season after they have failed to finish top and at 5/2 they rate a more than fair price to bounce back and topple last term's winners Chelsea. They were 11/4 before their Community Shield win over their title rivals but we can cope with that minor cut and are more than happy to unleash a decent bet at slightly lower odds. United were the hardest team to score past last season and there is no reason why they can't be as mean once more with Edwin van der Sar, Nemanja Vidic and Patrice Evra the bedrock of a solid backline. Rio Ferdinand might be injury-prone these days but with Jonny Evans and new-signing Chris Smalling waiting in the wings Ferguson has more than capable youngsters to call on as back up. Van der Sar is closing in on 40-years-old now but he remains one of the most reliable goalkeepers in the league and he's at the top of an awesome spine with Vidic, Michael Carrick and Wayne Rooney completing the backbone. Plenty of fans will disagree and suggest Carrick is the weak link among that quartet but I'm a huge admirer of the midfielder and believe he has come in for unfair stick from some critics. For me, he's one of the finest players about in the central midfield lynchpin role and he has some fantastic support all around him. Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes may be well into the twilight of their careers but their experience is a huge positive and I wouldn't expect them to play more than half of the games in the league anyway - but what a pair to call on. Darren Fletcher and Ji-Sung Park will put in the hard yards once more and their industry will again be a factor for United, but the duo that really excite me are Antonio Valencia and Nani. The latter was brilliant in the last two months of last season and he looks sure to fulfil all of his potential now while Valencia should also improve now he's had a season at Old Trafford under his belt. Wayne Rooney will be the key man once again for United but he revelled in that role following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo last year and I'd expect him to bounce back in style from his World Cup disappointment. Crucially, he should be helped in the goal-getting department by new signing Javier Hernandez who looks an exciting prospect judging by his World Cup and pre-season form. We haven't even mentioned Dimitar Berbatov and Michael Owen, who remain top-class forwards to call on despite their frustrations with form and injury. Ferguson's side are the best in the league at beating teams they are expected to win against. They won 52 points against the bottom half last season and just a modicum of improvement against the better sides could be enough for them to finish top this term. Last season's near-miss will hurt United and Ferguson is the past master at regenerating old title-winning squads. This bunch of players will have learnt plenty from missing out last May and they can put that right this season. All-in-all, United's squad remains one of the best to challenge for the title and their experience, along with their hunger for more success, singles them out as outstanding win-bet material in what is an admittedly tight title race. Chelsea , Arsenal and Manchester City are the three teams who will push United and out of those three it is the Gunners that could just fall short. Arsene Wenger's team were not just in the title race with seven games to go last season, they were favourites to win it, and they got in that position without star forward Robin van Persie who was injured for much of the campaign. His return of nine goals in 16 games suggests he will be hitting 20+ given an injury-free season and his presence, along with new-signing Marouane Chamakh, will give the Gunners plenty of ammunition. Midfield talisman Cesc Fabregas will be loading the bullets while firing plenty himself and his eventual commitment to Arsenal this season is vital to his team's cause. His involvement cannot be underestimated. With Samir Nasri, Andrey Arshavin, Theo Walcott and youngsters such as Jack Wilshire and Aaron Ramsey set to play more games Arsenal have an exciting, fresh, attacking unit. Their problem is at the back. Manuel Almunia remains the worst first-choice goalkeeper at a top eight club and though the departures of Mikael Silvestre, William Gallas, Philippe Senderos and Sol Campbell could rightly be seen as a positive, it does leave them light in defence. Thomas Vermaelen is an excellent centre-half and new-signing Lauren Koscielny seems to have all the right attributes to be a success, but there's little back-up if injuries strike. Wenger could well address this problem before the end of the transfer window and if he does Arsenal will be a real threat, but he looks likely to remain saddled with a dodgy 'keeper and that could be their undoing. Still, they look the most likely to scupper our bet on United so a saver on the Arsenal-Man Utd straight-forecast looks a sensible move given it's available at a tasty 28/1. Reigning champions Chelsea are by no means out of it and my decision to leave them out of any bets is purely because I think they are vulnerable to improving sides at these prices. Any team who lost six league games and won the title by one point shouldn't be as short as they are and I would think twice about taking skinny prices about the Blues. There's no getting away from the fact that Carlo Ancelotti has an ageing squad on his hands and it could be that they peaked last season, with key players Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba both the wrong side of 32 now. They've also got the worse end of the Yossi Benayoun-Joe Cole trade and with no other major signings announced at the time of writing it is difficult to see how they can improve, with slight regression seeming more likely. Chelsea do have a very strong squad with quality all over the pitch and they should be right in the title race - but I'd expect them to fall short and they may have to settle for third this year. The race for fourth was wide-open last season but it looks unlikely to be the case again with Manchester City very much in what should be a four-horse race for the title. Roberto Mancini has spent almost £80million so far in this transfer window - Wolves have spent the second most in the league with £16million - and money will eventually talk as the other big clubs struggle in the current economic climate. Yaya Toure and David Silva look superb additions to a squad already brimming with talent and man-for-man, they will have the best 25 in the league by some distance. A title win for Manchester City is going to happen and soon, and I do think come the middle of April they will still be in the running along with Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea . However, I don't think you can underestimate experience of the hunt in this league and when it comes to the crunch, the other three (even Arsenal by virtue of their boss), know what it takes to come out on top. City are getting there, and I expect them to comfortably qualify for the Champions League this time, but they might have to wait a tad longer for that elusive Premier League crown. Considering all the above, the next tier could well be battling it out for fifth instead of fourth and the quartet that should fill spots five to eight are Everton, Tottenham, Liverpool and Aston Villa. Everton, look a good bet at 5/1 in the 'without the big four' market at Hills (the big four in this instance are Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City, a clear indicator of City's ascent and Liverpool's demise). If the league started on January 1 Everton would've finished third last season (with Manchester United winning the title), but injuries blighted the early part of their campaign and they just lost too much ground early on. Theirparticipation in the Europa League probably cost them a couple of Premier League places last season, but their consequent failure to qualify for Europe this time around should benefit them domestically now. David Moyes' squad remains small, but it's arguably the strongest of his reign at Goodison Park and the department where they were weakest - up front - has been significantly bolstered, in numbers at least. Jermaine Beckford, Magaye Gueye and Joao Silva are three new strikers to call on should Yakubu and Louis Saha struggle with injuries as they have in the past. Johnny Heitinga, Phil Jagielka, Marouane Fellaini, Mikel Arteta, Tim Cahill and Steven Pienaar are six massive players for the Toffees and if they can stay fit then they are in for a good season. Though the four title contenders should squeeze Everton out of a Champions League spot, Moyes' men look a decent bet without those four. Tottenham's efforts last season were superb but they could pay for them this time around as they won't find it easy to juggle Champions League and Premier League commitments. It won't take much of a points drop for them to slide out of the top four and while Manchester City are much stronger once again, Spurs will go to war with the same squad as last time. They will be difficult to beat at home and a top-six finish beckons, but a repeat of last season's fourth place is likely to be beyond them this time around. Liverpool have been buoyed by the arrival of Joe Cole on a free and while he will help in their quest for more goals - their Achilles Heel last season especially on the road - there is just too much uncertainty at Anfield to back the Reds with any confidence. Takeover talk clouds the club at present and despite noises from various parties don't expect all the problems to disappear even if a deal does go through before the end of the transfer window. The fact is that Liverpool have a very good first XI, of which their very best players are injury prone, and their replacements within the squad just aren't up to scratch. Roy Hodgson has made a good start to his tenure by keeping hold of Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres, but his next task is to get the duo to play as many games as they can together. If they can stay off the treatment table then Liverpool have a chance of competing in the race for a Champions League place, but if not the best they can hope for is a repeat of last season. Aston Villa finished sixth in 2009-2010 but they looked the most susceptible to regression of the top eight teams before Martin O'Neill resigned so you really have to fear for them now. Villa are very much a side who rely on their pace on the break but they can struggle at home and if they fail to build on last season's record at Villa Park they could well slide out of the European places. With no new signings coming in they are reliant on the same faces from last season, with the best of those, James Milner, likely to leave the club as he gets sucked in by the Eastlands revolution. Without O'Neill Villa could really struggle, but with the quality they have in their squad they should only drop a couple of places rather than anything too disastrous. Finally, I think it's worth having a quick look at the best of the rest as a ninth or 10th placed finish could well mean a win on the handicap. Birmingham finished ninth last season and theywere a clear winner of the handicap table with every UK bookmaker as they cleaned up with around 100 points (50 actual ones plus around a 50 start). 90+ points will be the marker again and in this market you have to look for a team that has been underestimated by the bookmakers and that has the potential to improve. Birmingham are a very solid side who don't concede many and I can see them scoring about 50 points once more, but the problem is they've only a 38-point start this time around. Bolton, Everton and Stoke are all worth considering in this market but the team I like the most is Sunderland who are available +38 with some layers. Steve Bruce's team scored 44 points last term so they need to improve by at least 10 to have a say on this year's handicap but I believe they are well capable of such progression. They started and finished well last season but endured a horrible 15-game winless run from November to March that derailed what looked like being a promising campaign. However, that negative momentum didn't stop them from turning it around in the end and I reckon Bruce and his squad will learn from that this time around. I spoke of Manchester United's excellent spine earlier on and the Black Cats are blessed with a fantastic backbone for a mid-table team. Craig Gordon, Lee Cattermole and Darren Bent are at the heart of it but their defence looks likely to be a stubborn one with Michael Turner and Anton Ferdinand joined by Titus Bramble at the back. Bramble has had his critics over the years but if you ignore some of the errors from his Newcastle days there is no doubting his ability and Bruce proved in his time at Wigan that he can get the best out of him. I'd expect Sunderland to be right in the race to finish best of the rest in ninth and if they are pushing towards 60 points come the end of the season they will be right in the title race, on the handicap, with a start of 38. Verdict
Sir Alex Ferguson's team only finished one point behind the Blues last campaign and little separated them throughout, so it is hard to agree with the price discrepancy this time around. Chelsea look vulnerable favourites at 7/4 while United are real value at 5/2.
1. Manchester United - 10pts to win the title at 5/2
2. Arsenal - 1pt Arsenal-Man Utd straight-forecast at 28/1 (saver)
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Everton - 4pts in Hills' 'without big four' market at 5/1
6. Tottenham
7. Liverpool
8. Aston Villa
9. Sunderland - 2.5pts e.w (+38) in Blue Square's handicap table at 15/1.
