Europa League qual.: Thursday games
Sometimes we get to write previews at just the right time, grabbing a price shortly before it can disappear. On others, the boat is missed - and I'm afraid today (Wednesday) was one such occasion.
Before we began pondering our picks for Thursday's Europa League play-off second legs, Liverpool revealed that both Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres would miss the trip to Turkey to face Trabzonspor. Cue a plunge on the Turks which has seen their odds slashed in many a market, notably the 'to qualify' one in which they had been 5/1. As I write, they are just 7/2 and shortening all the time. Still, with Gerrard and Torres being such big players for the Reds, money is sure to come in opposition, even at that 7/2 price. As has so often been the case, the duo looked Liverpool's most likely threat against Manchester City on Monday night - a game they lost 3-0. While City were not as good as many made out that night, Liverpool were not good. Wantaway Javier Mascherano was omitted for that game and misses out again, as do Daniel Agger and Maxi Rodriguez. With no specialist left-back in the squad either, this tie is unlikely to be all plain sailing, despite Liverpool leading 1-0 from the first leg, a game which showed Trabzonspor are not a shabby side . They passed the ball around well at times and will surely attack with greater potency on home soil. Roy Hodgson said after the game that the second leg "won't be comfortable at all". So what must he now think being without his two star men? The question we must answer is how do we take advantage of their problems? As already suggested, the 'to qualify' market may well have had the value already sucked from it. In any case, our concern is that Liverpool will be able to find an away goal at some stage - and that will need the hosts needing to score three to progess. One thing you can't accuse Liverpool of very often is laying down so if they do find themselves in trouble, they are sure to keep fighting and there is still decent quality in their remaining players, such as Joe Cole and Lucas. Instead, we feel a better way to go is to back Trabzonspor to win either half - Bet365 will give you 1.80 about this occurrence. By definition this has to happen for them to stand any chance in the 'to qualify' market, while it takes out some of the threat posed by a potential away goal, not to mention a possible Liverpool fightback. Looking elsewhere, the likes of Manchester City and Celtic appear to have already done the hard work needed to reach the group stages. The same cannot be said of Aston Villa, who drew 1-1 away to Rapid Vienna last week with a youthful side. However, with Gabriel Agbonlahor, James Collins and Carlos Cuellar all on the comeback trail after injury and likely to be available, Villa look set to field a stronger side this time out and should be able to make amends for last season's defeat to the same opponents at the same stage of the competition. Having failed to win and conceded an away goal in the first leg, Rapid must feel their best chance of an upset has now gone, even when Villa's 6-0 defeat at the weekend is taken into account. An improvement will be demanded by fans and coaching staff alike and this looks a game tailor-made for a backlash to be unleashed. With Villa a prohibitive price, backing Marc Albrighton to get among the expected goals looks tempting. The young midfielder impressed during the opening-day win against West Ham and also caught the eye in last week's first leg. He set up goals in both games and clearly gets forward with regularity. If goals do emerge, Albrighton is unlikely to be too far away, so the 4.75 on offer about him netting at any time looks worth a small punt. PICK: Trabzonspor to win either half v Liverpool at 1.80 (at Bet365).
Marc Albrighton to score at any time v Rapid Vienna at 4.75 (at Bet365).