The Johnstone's Paint Trophy has always been widely regarded as a minefield from a betting perspective but the competition has 27 years of history now and that's long enough for some pretty reliable trends to emerge.

So, drawing on this information combined with anecdotal evidence of recent seasons, it's possible to narrow the field down considerably in pursuit of good value and we reckon we've picked out a couple of big-priced teams who stack up in virtually every sense.

For starters, it's important to understand the structure of the competition because 16 teams are given a bye in this week's first round and we shouldn't underplay the significance of this advantage.

This is the stage when the big teams are at their most vulnerable, when the prospect of playing at Wembley couldn't be further away.

Shock exits are commonplace early doors because clubs seldom have any real attachment to the competition until it reaches a certain point just before Christmas, so it's much better to get behind a team that only has to win two matches to reach the area semi-finals rather than three.

It should also be acknowledged that the southern section is stronger than the northern section with 14 out of 24 teams coming from League One, compared with 10 out of 24 up north.

This imbalance only becomes more significant when you also weigh up last season's finishing positions with nine of the top 13 highest-placed teams located in the south.

The distinction is important because history suggests League Two are much less likely to win the competition.

Basement clubs might upset plenty of League One sides in the first few rounds but class always seems to tell in the latter stages when things get serious.

This should be even more so the case now bearing in mind the obvious chasm in quality and resources that appears about a third of the way down the third tier.

Last season, for example, Leeds didn't seem to take the competition seriously at all but still somehow managed to reach the final of the northern section.

Meanwhile, down south the minnows didn't really stand a chance because Southampton did take it seriously and emphasised the fact by dispatching Charlton, Norwich and MK Dons en route to Wembley.

Predictably, the Saints are clear favourites to lift the trophy once again and though we were prepared to cover our bets with a saver on them at 7/1 when initially weighing up this market, we're happy to overlook them in light of Alan Pardew's jaw-dropping dismissal on Monday.

There's no doubt the Hampshire club lifted the profile of the competition and their success might have ushered in a new era where the JPT isn't treated with quite as much disdain as it's been showered with in the past.

However, we must accept that some teams will never take it seriously no matter what, so it's crucial to understand the attitude of each particular manager and the other circumstantial factors that dictate the mood.

With this in mind, it's perhaps no coincidence that repeat finalists and semi-finalists occur with more regularity than you would put down to chance and that goes some way towards explaining our dual interest.

Carlisle were the beaten finalists in April, they are situated in the weaker northern section and they also have a bye into the next round, so it's mystery why they are generally available at26.00.

Greg Abbott's men currently sit third in League One and while they might not be the cream of the division, they generally have enough spirit and determination to beat the better teams over 90 minutes, particularly at Brunton Park.

Meanwhile, most of the same logic applies to MK Dons and they make a fair punt at 21.00.

The Buckinghamshire outfit won this trophy in 2008 and they've remained competitive ever since as they seek to create whatever history they can to try and negate the dubious manner of how they came into existence.

Owner Pete Winkleman has never made any secret of his passion for this competition and that should be reflected once again in the attitude of rookie boss Karl Robinson as he attempt to emulate the achievements of his former mentor Paul Ince.

PICKS:
MK Dons to win the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at 21.00 (Bet365).
Carlisle to win the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at 26.00 (Bet365).