English Premiership Previews: Round 4 (Monday game)
Stoke have had a tough start to their Barclays Premier League campaign and on paper it won't get much easier when they face Midlands rivals Aston Villa on Monday night.
Saturday 11th September Everton v Manchester United Verdict: Everton 1 Manchester United 1 Arsenal v Bolton Verdict: Arsenal 1 Bolton 1 Fulham v Wolves Verdict: Fulham 1 Wolves 1 Manchester City v Blackburn Verdict: Manchester City 3 Blackburn 0 Newcastle v Blackpool Verdict: Newcastle 2 Blackpool 1 West Brom v Tottenham Verdict: West Brom 2 Tottenham 1 West Ham v Chelsea Verdict: West Ham 0 Chelsea 2 Wigan v Sunderland Verdict: Wigan 2 Sunderland 2 Sunday 12th September Birmingham v Liverpool The Reds have only played Manchester City away this term, but they were dreadful. It was a stark reminder of the team Rafa Benitez sent out to win just five of 19 road games in 2009-2010. Roy Hodgson will be hoping to improve on that record and a fit and firing Fernando Torres can help in that respect. He looked like he was getting back in the groove with his goal against West Brom before the international break - where he scored twice for Spain against Liechtenstein. Crucially he was rested for the friendly with Argentina and with that in mind we'll take the 2.00 Bet365 offer about him finding the net here. When he's on a roll he's a genuine 4/7 chance to score anytime so we'll take the odds-against given the signs are he's coming back to something like his usual self. With Dirk Kuyt injured, Joe Cole still suspended and David Ngog struggling with a hamstring injury, Liverpool's goal threats are pretty much down to Steven Gerrard and Torres which heightens our interest in the Spanish striker. Liverpool are 2.40 with Bet365 to win the game, but we'd much rather put our faith in Torres than the whole team. This is a tough place to go and Liverpool have drawn with Birmingham the last twice they have played at St Andrews. Given Birmingham have already beaten Blackburn at home and drawn away at Bolton (when throwing away a 2-0 lead) they are clearly in good nick and shouldn't be taken lightly. We're happy with our Torres bet, but if push came to shove on the win market we'd have to plump for the draw at 3.25. Verdict: Birmingham 1 Liverpool 1 Monday 13th September The main talking point of course will be how Villa are affected by the arrival of new manager Gerard Houllier, though he won't take charge for this game. Despite flying high in the table, it's hard to forget how Villa - led by Kevin MacDonald - were ripped apart three weeks ago by a Newcastle team expected to struggle following their promotion from the Championship. Stoke have strengthened their squad with the addition of Marc Wilson, Eidur Gudjohnsen and Jermaine Pennant, and although it remains to be seen how these players will fit into the side they will bring competition for places in the starting XI as well as Premier League experience. And the home side will also be keen to take advantage of a team that may not be on the same wavelength in the early stages of the reign of the Frenchman, who returns to the Premier League after a six-year absence. The two matches between the sides last season were tight affairs, with a 0-0 draw at the Britannia and a narrow 1-0 home win for Villa, and we expect nothing to change. For that reason, we are recommending the draw at 3.30. Verdict: Stoke City 1 Aston Villa 1 PICKS:
I guess the one fixture Wayne Rooney could do without right now is 'Everton away' and while the recent newspaper headlines didn't hinder his England performances he's thrown into a very different cauldron here. After a poor start the Toffees need something to fire up their season and a lunchtime kick-off against Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United could well do the trick. However, Everton backers beware. The 7/2 might appeal but the Goodison Park side have only won three of the 18 Premier League home matches with United. One of them was a 3-1 win last season, but it's fair to say United have good memories of their trips to the blue half of Merseyside. It's been a decent start to the season for the Red Devils with two 3-0 home wins sandwiching a 2-2 draw away at Fulham. Yet that failure to kill the game at Craven Cottage lingers and with this fixture undoubtedly another tough away trip, odds-on quotes don't appeal. A better bet might be the draw at 3.50. I've a feeling both sides would be quite happy with that and though Everton will be right up for this in a hot atmosphere, United's class can see them claim a point.
Arsene Wenger will be cursing his misfortune once again having had 12 players on international duty in midweek and one of them, Theo Walcott, twisted his ankle and was carried off in England's win over Switzerland. Walcott is added to an injury list that includes Robin Van Persie and Samir Nasri with the Gunners' squad already being tested with just three matches of the season completed. Bolton have made a bright start and are unbeaten in four games. Things certainly seem to be moving in the right direction under Owen Coyle and this will be a decent gauge as to the progress that has been made. You have to go back to 1994 for the last time Bolton defeated Arsenal on their own patch while Jussi Jaskaleinen's absence due to suspension makes it just that bit more trickier at the Emirates. That said, there is a new-found confidence around the Reebok currently and that allied to Arsenal's personnel problems makes the visitors competitive. You can get odds-against the Trotters with two goals on the handicap and they should be well up to staying in touch at the very least.
Mark Hughes' more dynamic philosophy seems to be working at Craven Cottage currently with his Fulham side entertaining to watch with back-to-back 2-2 draws in the league, while sandwiched in between was a 6-0 Carling Cup drubbing of Port Vale. His side also showed plenty of spirit in the drawn outcomes having required late goals against Manchester United and Blackpool to secure a vital point. A little more defensive solidity should now be next on the Welshman's agenda. Mick McCarthy's side are unbeaten in four outings this season and although a little less exciting on the eye, this has been an encouraging start. Their ace in the pack is striker Kevin Doyle, who McCarthy predicted was running into form ahead of his goal in midweek for the Republic of Ireland against Andorra. He has been struggling with a few niggles in the early stages of the campaign but is only going to get better as he gets more matches under his belt. He should be feeling confident and may well take advantage of any lapses at the back from the hosts.
We felt a little unlucky to miss out when we backed Yaya Toure to find the net for City a fortnight ago. With the Eastlands outfit having an abundance of riches in the defensive midfield positions, the Ivory Coast midfielder has been playing in a much more attacking role than many suggested and he missed a fine chance to score at Sunderland where he regularly got forward to support Carlos Tevez. It was the same in the previous game against Liverpool and we remain convinced a goal isn't far away. It could well come here for while Blackburn are tough to beat on home soil, they've been pretty ropey on their travels for some time and this game smacks of City hitting themselves back into form with a few goals. Toure is 10.00 (Bet365) to net at any time which is fine by us.
A battle between two of the promoted sides at St James's Park and a quick look at last season's Championship form shows the Magpies won this fixture 4-1. Both teams have gained four points from their first three fixtures with the undoubted highlights being a 6-0 win over Villa for Newcastle and a 4-0 victory at Wigan for Blackpool. That opening day win for the Tangerines came against a shambolic Wigan outfit, though, and I still fear for them on the road. Newcastle's home form will be key to their ambitions and they will see this as a must-win match. Chris Hughton's team impressed against Aston Villa, but it must be said that the Midlands outfit have been awful so far this campaign - even when they somehow beat Everton 1-0. I do think Newcastle will win, but Blackpool are capable of putting up a better show than Villa did and I wouldn't expect an avalanche of goals here. Quotes of 1.53 (Bwin) about a Newcastle win don't appeal given we only fancy them to edge a narrow victory.
Harry Redknapp would not have been a happy bunny when he got a call from the England physio this week. Or should that be calls. Michael Dawson and Jermain Defoe have both been ruled out for weeks with injuries picked up on international duty and both are key men for a Spurs side beaten at home by Wigan last time out. Spurs' squad is strong these days but losing both is an undoubted blow to the manager who may now turn to William Gallas to make his debut in defence, while Rafael van der Vaart is another player who could come in further forward. Whatever he decides, the Spurs side will be a changed one, even more so if Redknapp decides to rest one or two with their Champions League opener to come on Tuesday. That will all give heart to the Baggies, who have recovered well from their opening-day mauling at Chelsea. Sunderland were beaten in their only previous home match, while they were certainly competitive during the 1-0 loss at Anfield. In short, we fancy the hosts could cause problems in this one so we'll take a punt on a home win at 3.75 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, Bwin).
It's bottom v top at Upton Park as the Hammers (no points, scored one, conceded nine) face Chelsea (nine points, scored 14, conceded none). It's therefore no surprise to see the bookies very wary about punters looking to back the visitors. With John Terry and Frank Lampard set to return, it's hard to make a good case for an upset, although clearly it's a local derby with a hostile atmosphere likely to boost the hosts a little. That said, Chelsea have a good record at Upton Park having won four of the last five - two of them by at least two goals. The best we can see is Blue Square's even-money quote about Chelsea (-1) winning on the handicap but even that fails to set the pulse racing. Keep the powder dry here.
Wigan have taken just three games to show their Jekyll and Hyde tendancies have yet to be eliminated. They mixed impressive wins over some the big boys last season with some awful results (losing 4-0 at Portsmouth among them). Already this term they've lost 4-0 at home to Blackpool and beaten Spurs 1-0 away. Essentially they remain a punter's nightmare and the fact this is the first game since the arrivals of deadline-day signings Tom Cleverley and Franco Di Santo onlyadds to the sense of not knowing what to expect. As for Sunderland, they beat Manchester City last time out but have also yet to show any consistency having lost at West Brom on their last road trip. One trend they have established though is having late goal in their games. All three of their matches so far this term have featured a goal in the last 10 minutes so we wouldn't put people off backing a goal after 72 minutes at evens.
However, we're prepared to save our cash for better bets elsewhere.
Birmingham earned the reputation of being a scrooge-like outfit last season as they squeezed out narrow wins by keeping it tight at the back - particularly at home. Yet this season they've started in positively cavalier fashion in comparison, with 16 goals featured in their opening four games. We haven't seen the same unit that proved so difficult to score past last year and that will give Liverpool some hope, despite their poor away form from last campaign seemingly creeping into this one. 
Stoke have had a tough start to their Barclays Premier League campaign and on paper it won't get much easier when they face Midlands rivals Aston Villa on Monday night. The Potters have no points from their first three games, while Villa are sitting pretty in fourth, but Monday could see the tide begin to turn at the Britannia Stadium. Although Tony Pulis' men have lost every game, there is no disgrace going down to champions Chelsea and resurgent Tottenham, while Wolves remain unbeaten this season.
Bolton (+1.75 handicap) v Arsenal at 1.81 (Betsson)
Kevin Doyle to score at any time v Fulham at 3.00 (Bet365)
Yaya Toure to score at any time v Blackburn at 10.00 (Bet365)
West Brom to beat Spurs at 3.75 (Bwin, Bet365)
Everton and Man Utd to draw at 3.50 (Ladbrokes).
Fernando Torres to score v Birmingham at 2.00 (Bet365) .
Stoke to draw with Aston Villa at 3.30 (Ladbrokes).
