Preview: German Bundesliga I, Matchday 4
Many clubs had to participate in the Champions League and Europa League mid-week matches. So far, all these clubs have been facing difficulties after playing mid-week matches. Will they struggle this weekend?
Friday 17th September 2010
20:30 CET
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg
The hosts got their first win last week against Gladbach away from home. However, they didn’t earn just 3 points from that match. The final score, 0-4, gave the squad a massive confidence boost, after starting the season with 2 lost games in a row. They will certainly be getting back on track now and they are expected to stay well above the danger zone. This week they will face Freiburg at home and they will try even harder to get those valuable points from matches against inferior opponents, at least in theory.
Freiburg beat Stuttgart at home last week, by turning things around in the second half. Cisse scored again. That was his fourth goal in 3 matches and he will definitely pose a thread to Frankfurt’s defence. As they are currently 3 points ahead of Frankfurt, they will probably consider the draw as a good result, so they could repeat their tactic to stay safe at the back and strike in counter-attack.
However, a third consecutive win for Freiburg would be an amazing surprise, plus I think that coach Michael Skibbe should have studied enough their tactics and have his squad prepared for this match. Odds on the home win could have been better, plus Cisse is too dangerous, so we could once again opt for a bet that includes goals being scored.
Saturday 18th September 2010
15:30 CET
Bayern Munich vs Koln
The hosts were stuck at 0-0 against Werder Bremen last week, but perhaps their minds were focused on the Champions League match against Roma. Thomas Muller scored a beautiful goal and Miro Klose once again delivered on a European match and that win came without the services of either Arjen Robben or Frank Ribery.
In the domestic league, the champions have collected just 4 points from the first 3 matches. This week they are playing at home against a far inferior opponent, so they shouldn’t settle for anything but the 3 points. It will be interesting to see how the fans will react to Lucas Podolski’s return to the Allianz Arena as an opponent.
What could be even more interesting, but not related to this match, is the fact that Bayern Munich have reacted in the most decisive manner against allegations of match-fixing by issuing a strongly worded statement, in which the club has decided to file a lawsuit against two UEFA employees - Peter Limacher and Robin Boksic - who had alleged that the club had "sold" their 2008 UEFA Cup semi-final against Zenit to the Russian mafia for US$1 million.
In other news, Bayern are having discussions with the KNVB (Dutch FA) regarding compensation for Robben’s injury. So far, money has yet to be discussed.
Back to our match, Koln managed to beat St. Pauli last week at home and collect their first points of the season, a win that could prove to be extremely important in case these two teams end up battling to avoid relegation. They will try to catch Bayern off-guard here, but I don’t think they will succeed. Odds on the home win may seem to be low at around 1.25, however they are higher than the 1.16’s we saw during the past few seasons on the same bet.
Werder Bremen vs Mainz
The hosts managed to escape from Munich with a draw last week. A few days later, they managed to stay alive in the battle for a spot in the Champions League last-16, as they equalized Tottenham in the second half. Had they lost that match at home, it would have been extremely difficult to advance to the next round.
Mainz have shown great skill in getting the result that they want and so far it has been 3 out of 3 for them. They are sitting at the top of the table, along with Hoffenheim, and they seem to be quickly pulling away from the rest of the teams that will battle for relegation this season. Of course, Mainz aim at much higher spots on the table, and they might as well get a top-8 finish, however they can’t afford to completely take their eyes away from the bottom group, since they were still in the 2nd division only two years ago.
Games that include Werder Bremen and a squad that is not among the top teams, usually provide us with plenty of goals, so this should create a couple of opportunities for us here.
Stuttgart vs Gladbach
The hosts are one of the negative surprises so far. After 3 matches they are dead last with zero points and a -5 goal difference. The 2007 champions have made their worst start ever and they haven’t even played against any of the top teams yet. Last week they even lost to Freiburg, away from home, despite having taken an early lead. The players are there, the quality is there, but there seems to be lack of team spirit, problems in defence and an inability to score goals that’s been keeping them from getting any points so far. Good thing for them that they still have to face quite a few of the weakest teams in the league over the following weeks, so they can start collecting points more easily.
Gladbach on the other hand, after humiliating Leverkusen away from home, came down to earth last week as they were crushed at home by Frankfurt (0-4). Conceding 2 goals in each half, the players seemed to still have their minds on their amazing 3-6 win against Leverkusen. This week they have to face another top club that usually are very powerful in front of their own fans, so can they pull the same tricks again and win?
Stuttgart had to play a Europa League match just 2 days ago, so even though I firmly believe that they will get their first points out of this match, I cannot under any circumstances suggest that you bet serious money on this home win.
- Home Win Draw No Bet, 1.34 at bwin or Only One Team To Score, 2.40 at Betsson or Home Win, 1.80 at bet365.
Wolfsburg vs Hannover
The 2009 champions are another negative surprise in this early stage of the championship. After just losing to Bayern away from home in added time, they lost a match against Mainz which they were leading 3-0 and last week their glorious attacking line couldn’t even score against Dortmund, so naturally, given their numerous defensive issues, they lost 2-0.
This week it’s time for redemption and everyone in Wolfsburg knows it. They are, however, facing a side that’s not only undefeated so far, but have beaten Schalke away from home and nearly beat Leverkusen at home last week, even though Pogatetz saw the red card coming out of the referee’s pocket after just 36 minutes. They certainly want to secure their presence in the top league as early as possible this season.
It isn’t wise to go against a team that has looks to be in good form and it is even more naïve to back a squad with numerous issues, mainly in defense, that could cause them to concede at any given time, however the hosts are now in a must-win situation and I feel they will score more than once. Odds on the over 2.5 goals are somewhat ridiculous, so I would opt for the home win on an asian handicap, knowing that a great amount of risk is involved.
Kaiserslautern vs Hoffenheim
After a glorious start with 2 straight wins, Kaiserslautern lost their 3rd game against Mainz, even though they were leading until the 71st minute. They conceded two goals within 3 minutes and gave away some valuable points. Their rivals, Hoffenheim, have been dominating the league so far. As strange as it may seem, Hoffenheim have won all 3 matches, including two massive wins against Werder and Schalke, both coming with ease. They’ve only conceded 1 goal so far and that was from Werder Bremen on their 4-1 win. Kaiserslautern have only played one game at home so far and they managed to beat Bayern by 2-0. Hoffenheim have also only played one game away from home and they beat St. Pauli thanks to a late goal. Once again, I strongly disagree with the odds on this match. I believe that the hosts will have a shot at winning this and Hoffenheim shouldn’t be considered the favorites. However, I can’t make any predictions here lightly regarding the result, because both teams have brought some remarkable results so far.
I can see both teams paying attention in defence, so perhaps there’s some value in the following suggestion.
- Under 2.5 goals, 1.95 at bwin.
Sunday 19th September 2010
15:30 CET
St. Pauli vs Hamburger
Just when the hosts seemed to have started the season in a positive way, with a very important away win that gave them confidence, they lost two games in a row, both by 1-0, against Hoffenheim at home and Koln away from home. This week they will face Hamburger at home. The visitors are the only top team that’s still undefeated. However, they have shown signs of inconsistency again this season. Last week I had warned you that the match against Nurnburg would have been tricky and despite Hamburger taking the lead in the second half, they were equalized with less than 10 minutes left on the clock and dropped 2 points that didn’t initially seem so hard for them to take. They still seem to be underperforming when playing against the weak sides and that comes with a great cost. I believe that the match against St. Pauli gives the players, as well as the coach, an opportunity to prove themselves, to show that they can truly be a top team and get what matters the most: Points from matches that are easy to win, in theory. I would rather wait and see if they can do it, than put my money on any bet in this match.
- No bet.
17:30 CET
It has been quite common this season that teams participating in the European Cups get to play their championship matches Sunday afternoon, so that the players can get some rest.
Schalke vs Dortmund
Both teams had to play a mid-week game. Schalke travelled to France, only to lose the match against Lyon by 1-0 and have Howedes sent off after just 38 minutes.
Dortmund will probably look more tired, as they had to play a late Thursday night match in Ukraine, against Karpaty Lviv.
The hosts are probably the biggest negative surprise of all, as they have thrown some serious money into the transfer market this summer, signing players of great quality such as Raul and Huntelaar, however their appearances have been tragic. Last week they were down 1-0 against Hoffenheim yet they couldn’t create any chances in front of goal and in fact it was Hoffenheim that looked more dangerous, not in counter-attack but in regular, organized attacks that revealed Schalke’s serious issues in defence. Goalkeeper Neuer is probably still looking at how good he was during the World Cup and has forgotten all about his terrible mistakes that cost Schalke many points last season, as he conceded an own goal that he should have avoided (to say the least).
Can Schalke pick up their pieces and start winning matches or will Dortmund cause them to sink even deeper on the table?
If the visitors didn’t have to travel to Ukraine so late this week, I would recommend betting against Schalke here, however with teams switching environments and obligations so quickly it would be silly to make any predictions here.
- No bet.
Leverkusen vs Nurnberg
The hosts tried to recover from those 6 goals they conceded at home against Gladbach, but Hannover proved too good to let go so easily and if it wasn’t for their advantage in numbers Leverkusen would have lost that match as well. Nurnberg did get that draw against Hamburger, however they know they have an extremely difficult schedule still ahead of them and they will certainly try to make the most out of every match, including this one, in order to stay close to their rivals regarding relegation. They may be currently in 15th place, however just by looking at the teams below them we can see Wolfsburg, Schalke and Stuttgart. It would take a huge miracle to see any of these 3 still at the bottom after a few weeks so it is more than obvious that Nurnberg are behind their rivals at this point. Luckily for the hosts their European clash was held at home this week, but a Thursday night's match is always a reason for players to be less concentrated and devoted on their championship match. Last time this happened, they lost 3-6 to Gladbach at home. That, however, is very unlikely to happen again!
Ballack will be sidelined for the following six weeks, as you read earlier this week at dr-bet.com .
- Home Win, 1.44 at bet365.
My Suggestions:
Werder vs Mainz: Both to score
Wolfsburg vs Hannover: Over 2.5 goals