English Npower League 1 Preview: Week 7
After losing both of their opening two matches by three clear goals, Notts County assume they've overcome their League One teething troubles with seven points from four subsequent matches but we're not convinced they should be odds-on for the visit of Leyton Orient this weekend.
The Magpies romped to the League Two title in the second half of last season but enormous credit was owed to manager Steve Cotterill and keeper Kasper Schmeichel for shaping a sequence of 14 clean sheets in 18 matches as they hoovered up a staggering 45 points from the last available 54. Now both men have departed for the Championship and while County still possess the individual quality to be comfortable at this level, new boss Craig Short and the remaining players still have questions to answer in terms of their organisation as a unit. It's a situation clouded by the formbook because two of those last four matches have come against teams promoted alongside them, so the die was already cast in terms of who had the upper hand from a psychological perspective. Orient have endured a difficult start and currently trailing their hosts by three points from a similar set of fixtures, but their performances - with the exception of an abject display at Dagenham & Redbridge a fortnight ago - have generally merited more than results suggest. Indeed, when analysing the results of both teams and looking down their respective teamsheets, you begin to appreciate there's not a great deal of difference between them. Yes, County are the better side. And yes, they have home advantage. But we had them down no shorter than 1.83 on our tissue for this, so the 1.925 quote on them failing to win when backing the Orient half-ball on the Asian handicap is just about big enough to trigger our involvement. Meanwhile, Tranmere have developed a penchant for picking off big scalps at Prenton Park under Les Parry and they also warrant a small interest at 3.10 against Charlton. The Merseysiders have beaten Southampton, Norwich, Millwall and Peterborough in their Birkenhead backyard in 2010, all of which contributes to an impressive 52 per cent home win ratio since the long-serving physio picked up the reins back in October last year. As a former shipyard worker with no previous playing experience, Parry has obvious shortcomings in management but he clearly knows how to channel the energy of his players into something positive and the Addicks could be pretty vulnerable after losing their last two on the road. PICKS:
Leyton Orient (+0.5) to beat Notts County on the Asian handicap at 1.925 at Bet365.
Tranmere to beat Charlton at 3.10 at Bet365.