English Npower League 1 Preview: Week 8
If we strip away the narrative of the past 12 months and concentrate only on the bare facts, then Swindon have to be value against Huddersfield at 2.62 on Saturday.
The Terriers might be five points ahead of their Wiltshire hosts in the fledgling League One standings but the two teams were virtually inseparable over the course of 46 games last season, both of them missing out on promotion in the play-offs against an ultra-focused and determined Millwall team. So why are they priced up each of two when home advantage is with the Robins? Well, the simple answer is that Lee Clark's men are top of the league and markedly more fashionable. They're young, energetic and play the game the way we all like to see it played, whereas Swindon just plod along and get results, even though not many punters have ever quite fathomed out how. Needless to say, when Danny Wilson's men started the season sluggishly, without a win in their first five matches, the doomsayers were quick to rule out the possibility of last season's standards being repeated. So with the matter cleared up, minds have closed and an impressive four-match unbeaten sequence has gone unnoticed. Conclude what you will about the start Southampton have made but to beat them twice in 12 days is no mean feat. You might catch them cold once, but doing so changes the dynamic for the second encounter and it requires some grit to grind out a 1-0 win when they're out for revenge, knowing a little bit more about you. Either side of that last home game, the Robins have collected four points from tricky away games at Carlisle and Walsall, so it's fair to say they're back to doing what they did best last season, regardless of what you've heard. As for Huddersfield, we don't dispute that they boast excellent promotion credentials but their willingness to play on the front foot can occasionally bring about their own undoing, particularly when visiting the tougher venues in the division. Defeat at Peterborough in the third match in the campaign was simply the extension of a sequence that saw them collect just one point from nine away games against the rest of the top 10 last season, so we'll take the big price on a home win at the County Ground. Meanwhile, we can also shed some further light of Swindon's success at the Bescot Stadium last weekend by backing Walsall to bounce back with victory at Hartlepool. The Saddlers haven't been having much good fortune so far this season but nine goals in seven matches would suggest they aren't doing a great deal wrong. Every one of their games so far has been settled by the odd goal - two in their favour, five against - and the 3.60 quote on the away win at Victoria Park seem like a fair price on them redressing the balance slightly. Hartlepool have triumphed only once all season and they are still without a manager, so this fixture represents the kind of no-win situation when instability and a general lack of direction can come to the fore. We suspect Pools might well prove to be the architects of their own downfall. PICKS:
Swindon to beat Huddersfield at 2.62 at Bet365.
Walsall to beat Hartlepool at 3.60 at Bet365.