Preview: German Bundesliga I, Matchday 6
After the mid-week matches, the German clubs return to their scheduled weekend matches for the local league having in mind the mid-week matches for the European Cups next week. Which teams will pick up the pace and which will be overwhelmed by fatigue?
Friday 24th September 2010
20:30 CET
FC Koln vs Hoffenheim
Both these teams had a rough Tuesday night as the hosts lost to Mainz, away from home, and the visitors saw their first-half lead against Bayern turn into their first defeat this season as they conceded in the added time of the second half.
This is a match of extreme importance, especially for the home team, as Koln are now in a very uncomfortable position on the table, with most of their rivals having more points than them. For Hoffenheim, this match could be an opportunity to gain a massive advantage over the bottom teams so early in the season, that will allow them to play with less pressure and finish as high on the table as possible. They certainly have the assets to achieve it, but the hosts will not want to lose this match under any circumstances. Last season Hoffenheim got a very impressive win here by 0-4 once again during the first round. Koln won the second round match when they were desperate for points while Hoffenheim were left with no aspirations.
The outcome seems a bit difficult to be predicted here, however odds on the away win look tempting.
Saturday 25th September 2010
15:30 CET
Bayern Munich vs Mainz
Mainz are the only undefeated team after the first 5 matches. More impressively, the have won all 5 matches so it comes as no surprise that they are on top of the table.
Among their victories we can point out the ones against Stuttgart at home and against Wolfsburg and Werder away from home. On the contrary, the champions have won only one out of three home games so far, the latter being a goalless draw against Koln, a match they could have even lost. However, a few days ago Bayern got their second win this season after a series of 3 unfortunate results and that will give them the confidence boost they need in order to create a winning streak that will bring them on top of the table once again. There are 7 points between these teams at the moment and even though it’s only common sense that Mainz will not be at the top in a few months it’s still a very important match for both teams given the current circumstances.
Pranjic will probably replace Contento, who was caught off-guard against Hoffenheim.
There are two things that occupy my mind: first of all I think Mainz have already beaten every previous record of theirs by starting the season with 5 wins and secondly odds on the home win are more than fair, which is quite unusual for matches like this one. Keep in mind that Mainz have a very tight defense and are extremely dangerous in counter-attack.
For Bayern, Frank Ribery is out after damaging ankle ligaments in the 2-1 mid week victory over Hoffenheim. He could return in time for the meeting with Hamburg on October 22, as Dr-Bet.com reported earlier this week.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Nurnberg
Another match that’s extremely important for both teams involved.
The hosts did not make a good start at all. They lost matches against teams such as Hannover and Freiburg that should have been handled differently. A few days ago, they improved their performance in the away game against Leverkusen, but still ended up losing the match due to a huge hole in defence that lead to a penalty-kick sustained. Frankfurt will now play in front of their own fans, in a must-win situation as they are below every team expected to battle for relegation. On the other hand, Nurnberg have achieved some amazing results lately. I had stated a few weeks ago that they have the worst schedule by far and they could reach Matchday 12 with less than 8 points. That’s still possible in theory, but after taking two away draws from Hamburger and Leverkusen and beating Stuttgart at home a few days ago despite the fact that they were a man down before they were even equalized, I believe that they will approach the following matches with the attitude of a winner. Wolf, who saw the red card, is suspended. This is a no-bet situation but the draw could be worth the risk.
- Draw 3.40 at bet365
Schalke vs Gladbach
Schalke off the mark at last! After coach Felix Magath apologized to Raul for the club’s poor performance so far, at least one of the engines in the attacking line seems to be working at last. After pulling one back against Dortmund last week, Huntelaar was the man of the match on Wednesday as he fired off the shot that forced Baumann to make a block that landed the ball in Rakitic’s feet who scored the first goal and literally saved the day, and probably much more than that, for Schalke by scoring with less than 3 minutes of regular time left on the clock. Despite their win, they are still at the very bottom of the table with only 3 points and they seem to have a mountain to climb in order to fulfill their goals. Perhaps they should just concentrate on winning another match against a clearly inferior opponent.
Gladbach have completely lost their rhythm. After beating Leverkusen by an unforgettable 3-6 away win, they lost at home to Frankfurt by 0-4 and then they were completely destroyed by Stuttgart in a 7-0 away defeat followed by another midweek defeat against St.Pauli at home. Even worse, Idrissou saw the red card so he will be greatly missed on this occasion.
Schalke need to start climbing on the table and they are presented with a great chance here, plus the odds are once again more than fair on the home win.
St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund
Both teams have made a good start, with regards to their own separate goals. Dortmund are currently in second place, after winning 4 matches in a row, while St.Pauli are in ninth place, having collected 7 points and they seem to be doing a good job keeping ahead of Kaiserslautern, Nurnberg, Koln, Gladbach and Frankfurt.
This will probably not be an easy match for Dortmund despite the fact that so far they have all their matches by 2 goals or more after the opening match defeat against Leverkusen. Next week, Dortmund will be facing Bayern Munich at home. In case they don’t beat St. Pauli they will probably allow Bayern to approach within striking distance and that will add some pressure on the squad which may result in a poor performance. In order to avoid that pressure, they will push hard for the win here and they seem to be in top form at the moment, so there could be some value in the away win.
Stuttgart vs Leverkusen
Just when the hosts seemed to have recovered, when they beat Gladbach by 7-0, they went on to lose the away match against 10-men Nurnberg a few days ago. This means they still have only 3 points and they are falling further back from the top of the table. Leverkusen had started a little bit better, but dropped points against Gladbach, Hannover and Nurnberg while they barely beat Frankfurt a few days ago. A total of 8 points brings them tied with rivals Hamburger and Bayern Munich, but in order to keep up with them they have to beat Stuttgart away from home this week.
Leverkusen have showed some problems in defence as well in offence, but the latest news will probably cause even more problems. Kiessling has been diagnosed with a torn ligament in the left lower leg after a tackle he received against Nurnberg and will be out for several weeks, while fellow striker Helmes also sustained a hamstring injury and is doubtful for this match. Coach Heynckes will be feeling relieved after seeing Rolfes able to play on top level again after missing almost a year due to a knee injury. The hosts have a few problems themselves as the wing pair Gebhart and Didavi sustained injuries during the midweek game against Nurnberg and both will be sidelined for three weeks. Stuttgart are playing at home and are in desperate need for points. Leverkusen will probably pay more attention in defence and try to strike in counter-attack.
- No bet.
18:30 CET
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger
One of Germany’s classics. The hosts have been struggling to collect points so far. They have only won 1 match and they have scored only one goal during the last 3 matches. They are coming from two straight defeats. Hamburger have more points, but they haven’t been doing much better lately. They failed to defeat Nurnberg and St Pauli while a few days ago they lost for the first time this season against Wolfsburg.
So that makes it 2 points for Hamburger and 1 point for Werder over the last 3 matches. Regarding the outcome of this match, I believe that Hamburger should play as an outsider would have and wait to strike in counter-attack. Players with the experience and abilities of Ruud van Nistelrooy and Petric are extremely dangerous for any defence, if they can find room to move. If, however, they try to dominate the match they will probably end up losing it. I don’t feel that we will see a one-sided match here and when it comes to Werder Bremen my picks usually involve goals being score (on either end).
- Over 2.5 goals 1.68 at bet365
Sunday 26th September 2010
15:30 CET
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
The hosts seem to have finally taken off. After starting the season with 3 defeats in a row, the “wolves” managed to beat Hannover at home and Hamburger away from home and it looks like both Dzeko and Grafite are once again the attacking duo we knew them to be. Recently transferred from Juventus, Diego scored the first goal against Hannover last week, however much controversy was raised as to whether or not he had fouled the defender. Just a few moments after that goal, Schmiedebach expressed his own opinion on that matter by tackling Diego in a way that could have broken his leg, only to face the referee’s yellow card. Freiburg did manage to make it 3 wins in a row last week and, naturally, that winning strake ended on Wednesday against Schalke. I do not believe that the odds on the home win here are as valuable as the ones on Bayern or Schalke, yet the hosts are still the favorites. Once again, I believe a bet involving goals could do the trick for us here.
- Over 2.5 goals 1.45 at bet365 or Both teams to score 1.53 at bet365 or Wolfsburg -1.5hdc 2.25 at bet365
17:30 CET
Kaiserslautern vs Hannover
The hosts couldn’t hold the lead against Hoffenheim last week and a few days ago they suffered their first heavy defeat this season as they looked helpless against Dortmund, losing 5-0. Hannover feel they lost the match against Wolfsburg in an unfair way and they sent a clear message on Tuesday by beating Werder 4-1 at home. Having beaten Schalke away from home and performed quite well against Wolfsburg despite their defeat, they feel like they have nothing to fear from Kaiserslautern. I think they could be wrong. Hannover struggled to stay above the danger zone last season. So far this season they have been doing a much better job, but a defeat here will bring Kaiserslautern on level terms with them and allow for more rivals to close the gap. Kaiserslautern have already beaten Bayern at home, an indication that the home factor will provide a great aid in their efforts to stay clear of the danger zone.
I believe that at least some Hannover players will be still looking back on their amazing 4-1 win over Werder and that combined with ‘lautern’s increased power at home will provide us with the home win here.
- Home win 2.25 at bet365
My suggestions this weekend:
Bayern to win + Schalke to win (combo) at 2.31 at Betsson
Bayern under 3.5 goals + Werder over 2.5 goal at 2.52 at Bet365