Euro 2012 Qualification, 12th October Previews
As ever in international week, it's worth taking a good look at England's opponents to see if there's any value to be had in backing them in one of the many markets offered these days.
By Andy Schooler (England) and Nick Hext The Three Lions always have the bookies running for cover and ahead of the clash with Montenegro at Wembley on Tuesday night; it's not a surprise to see the hosts chalked up at a 'best' price of 1.20 for the win. It's an understandable quote, but if this a match not involving the 'patriotic plunge' Montenegro would surely be given more respect. For in the first month of the Euro 2012 campaign they have quickly emerged as England's main group rivals - posting wins over Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland, all by 1-0 scorelines. Their success has been built on that solid defence, while going forward they look to their top-class striker, Roma's Mirko Vucinic, to get them goals. He's done just that in two of their three games so far (and is 5.50 to find the net in this one). Your average fan may not know too much about Montenegro, but the fledgling nation (part of the former Yugoslavia) should not be classed as also-rans simply because they are not a well-known name. With England missing key men in John Terry, Frank Lampard and last month's hat-trick hero Jermain Defoe, the confident visitors look big in the handicap markets. That solid defence could frustrate an England side who, it should be remembered, is not that much different to the one that huffed, puffed but couldn't blow the Algeria house down just four months ago. It's well known the Wembley crowd arrives expecting goals and the fans could well turn if England can't deliver them. But how to back the Montenegrins? The double chance market looks tempting - you can get an away win and the draw on side for 4.33. However, England usually get the job done at Wembley, even if they often struggle more than the bookies predict. Recent friendly wins over Hungary and Egypt are cases in point, while competitively think Ukraine from the World Cup qualifying campaign. With this in mind, Montenegro on the Asian handicaps look worth a play. With a 1.5-goal start, the visitors are even money - the bet will come in if England fail to win by two or more - and we're prepared to have a small play on that. In other markets, we're intrigued by Peter Crouch, who gets a rare start for his country. His good record at international level is well known - the exact figures are 21 goals in 40 appearances. However, less known is the fact that Crouch has scored on his last seven England starts. As we've already said, England are likely to get this job done, even if they do have to struggle first, so we're prepared to back the tall striker, who has already bagged four Champions League goals for Spurs this term. With three of those seven games seeing Crouch net the first goal, we're going to back him each way at 5.50 in the first scorer market. Scotland have the toughest possible challenge ahead of them with world and European champions Spain making the trip to Hampden. The visitors will be without Xavi, Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres but they are boosted by the return of key midfielder Xabi Alonso following the 3-1 win over Lithuania on Friday night. Scotland used a 4-6-0 formation during the 1-0 defeat against the Czech Republic but don't expect Craig Levein to keep the system after he promised his men will look to trouble Spain. "It's a game that we need to try and express ourselves in and try to win, it's as simple as that," he said. Captain Darren Fletcher is key to the Scots' hopes of securing a positive result and he will be needed to produce a talismanic performance. The midfielder has already scored twice for Manchester United this season and his danger at set-pieces makes the 5.00 with Bet365 for him to score anytime worth an interest. Even with Fletcher on form, Scotland will find the going tough with Spain boasting a 100 per cent record in qualifying for major tournaments since the 1-1 draw in Iceland in 2007. Levein's men could provide the Spanish with a decent test but they can be expected to come up short to leave plenty of work to do in their bid for qualification to Euro 2012. Northern Ireland have enjoyed a great start to their qualification campaign with a 1-0 win in Slovenia and a goalless draw at home to Italy. Next up is a trip to the Faroe Islands and boss Nigel Worthington won't let his men lose their focus. He was part of the Northern Ireland side that were held to a draw by the Faroe Islands at Windsor Park in 1991 and has used that experience to urge his side to produce a "professional" performance. Northern Ireland's strength is clearly at the back so the evens on offer for a win to nil is the place to be. Wales caretaker boss Brian Flynn will be hoping for better luck in his second match in the hotseat after the 1-0 defeat at home to Bulgaria on Friday night. Out-of-form Switzerland are the Welsh's next opponents and the pair are currently joint-bottom of Group G after two defeats in a row. Wales are without several key players for this clash with Craig Bellamy, Joe Ledley and Chris Gunter among the players missing. The Swiss could be without goalkeeper Diego Benaglio and that will give the away side some hope but this match is worth swerving from a punting perspective. The Republic of Ireland are another side to enter Tuesday night's round of games on the back of a defeat after the very disappointing 3-2 loss at home to Russia. Giovanni Trapattoni's men fell 3-0 behind before mounting a late comeback but there was plenty to be concerned about after they came so close to qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. Now they look to get back on track with a visit to Slovakia and the 3.20 for a Republic victory takes some appeal with a record of three wins and four draws in competitive games under Trapattoni. Slovakia, however, are a decent side despite the disappointment of a 3-1 defeat in Armenia on Friday. The 1-0 win against Russia last month gives a clearer indication of the quality they possess so this is again a match we will swerve. PICKS:
Montenegro(+2.0) to beat England on the Asian hcp at evens at Bwin.
Peter Crouch to score first v Montenegro at 5.50 at Bet365.
Darrren Fletcher to score anytime v Spain at 5.50at Bet365.
Northern Ireland to beat Faroe Islands to nil at 2.00 at Bwin.