English Npower Championship Preview: Week 11
The pressure continues to mount on boss Gordon Strachan but Bet365 appear to have overstepped the mark in pricing up his faltering Middlesbrough side at 2.20 for the visit of Leeds this weekend.
Middlesbrough v Leeds The pressure continues to mount on boss Gordon Strachan but Bet365 appear to have overstepped the mark in pricing up his faltering Middlesbrough side at 2.20 for the visit of Leeds this weekend. The Teessiders invested heavily in the summer and were widely expected to set the pace in this season's promotion race. But they haven't got out of second gear in a patchy opening couple of months, littered by some strangely subdued performances on the road. However, strip away the negativity and results at the Riverside haven't been too bad with 10 points taken from the last available 12, so they should be trusted to make home advantage count against a nervy Leeds defence that has capitulated on a couple of occasions already this term. The Whites started confidently enough on their return from League One but there was always a sneaking suspicion that the performances of Kasper Schmeichel were masking some serious defensive frailties and the 5-2 defeat at Barnsley was the moment when those fears were realised. As an isolated incident, the second-half collapse at Oakwell would be easily forgivable but to then surrender a commanding 4-1 lead at home to a limited Preston side, eventually losing 6-4, is a stonewall indication they shouldn't be trusted until Schmeichel returns from a foot injury. With understudy Shane Higgs also ruled out with a hamstring problem and Alex Bruce suspended after receiving his marching orders against parent club Ipswich a fortnight ago, Simon Grayson won't have too many options in trying to rectify the visitors' defensive woes. As ever, the prices dictate our involvement and the key point to consider is that Boro are now a bigger price to win this game than they were against a markedly-improving Portsmouth side last time out. The hosts obviously have a lot of convincing to do but there's clearly been a over-reaction from the layers to the anger that greeted their concession of a two-goal lead against Pompey, even though the eventual 2-2 outcome was no disgrace. For Strachan, a big show in front of the television cameras might be just what the doctor ordered to get their season up and running after a couple of weeks out of the firing line. The incentive is there and the price is right, so get on board with Boro.
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Best of the rest: There's no substitute for experience in the heat of a local derby and a rugged Millwall side could have too much muscle for their youthful Crystal Palace counterparts when the two clubs do battle for the first time in nearly five years at Selhurst Park on Saturday. A ferocious and hostile following is bound to accompany the Lions on the eight-mile journey down to Croydon and the case for the visitors only begins to mount when you combine this with the age gap between the two teams. With Kenny Jackett likely to send out a team with an average age of 27 (Theo Robinson is the only member of the squad under 25), whereas his opposite number George Burley will struggle to reach an average age of 25 - even with 37-year-old Edgar Davids in the starting line-up. With Nathaniel Clyne, Alex Morrow, Kieran Djilali, Kieron Cadogan and Wilfried Zaha all under 21, it seems likely that the Eagles will find themselves bullied out this contest if Millwall apply the level of aggression that has already brought them great success in this calendar year. Put simply, these are the occasions that Millwall thrive on and 2.75 is plenty big enough about them claiming local bragging rights.
PICKS:
Middlesbrough to beat Leeds at 2.20at Bet365.
Millwall to beat Crystal Palace 2.75 at Bwin.