English Premiership Previews: Round 8
This weekend's Merseyside derby is a crucial one! After a week at the High Court, Liverpool's ownership issue finally looks like being resolved but with that sideshow set to disappear their problems on the pitch will be back in the spotlight.
Saturday 16th October
Arsenal v Birmingham
The Gunners have failed to win their last three games in the Premier League and find themselves seven points adrift of leaders Chelsea. The Blues handed out a 2-0 defeat to them prior to the international break and the naysayers are already ruling Arsenal out of the title race. But the view within the camp remains upbeat considering most of the big names have looked vulnerable at some stage this season - so expect a few slips along the way which should keep Arsenal well in touch. They fared much better this time in the loss to Chelsea and some better finishing would have completely changed the outcome. They host a team that have been frustrated themselves having lost at home to Everton and been forced to sit and stew for a fortnight due to the international break. A handful of draws and just one win in the league this season has led to some pessimism around St Andrews so some sort of response from Alex McLeish's outfit will be required. Both sides have something to prove at the moment and it could be a match that boils over. Referee Martin Atkinson may well have his hands full and the 25 yellows and two reds he has dished out from seven matches this season suggests he will be quick to punish anyone who deviates from the straight and narrow. Physical defender Roger Johnson has three yellows already - he only had eight all season last year - and the 5.00 on offer with Coral for him to go in the book again or even get his marching orders appeals if any of the current woes get the better of him.
Verdict: Arsenal 2 Birmingham 1
Aston Villa v Chelsea
These two met on the same weekend last year and it was the hosts who came from behind to record a 2-1 victory. Things went horribly wrong for Villa after that in two more meetings with Chelsea as they conceded 10 goals with just one in response. You have to say that Villa have made a promising start under Gerard Houllier and their home form has been a strength. The Frenchman has been impressed with the attitude of the players and he has implemented double training sessions in a bid to improve fitness and technique. The target for the defence currently is more clean sheets and that should be attainable considering Nigel Reo-Coker has enjoyed a renaissance under Houllier in the holding midfield role having been left out in the cold by Martin O'Neill. The visitors lead the Premier League after what some have described as a "soft" schedule but they did manage to see off Arsenal 2-0 before the international break. This will be another good test which they potentially face without John Terry and Alex at the back while Frank Lampard may need time to regain his sharpness if returning after a spell out with injury. Chelsea are odds-on for victory but Villa look competitive on their own patch and merit support on the handicap at 2.20 getting a goal start.
Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 1
Bolton v Stoke
Danny Murphy's recent blast at some Premier League managers who allegedly send their teams out too pumped up has ruffled a few feathers and two meet here. Presuming that both concentrate on football rather than kicking each other up in the air, this should be an entertaining clash with both in good form. Bolton have shown useful form all season and Owen Coyle will now want his side to turn draws into wins - five out of seven matches have ended in stalemate. Stoke have turned their early season around in some style and 10 points garnered from a possible 12 lately has seen them climb up to seventh in the standings. There is not much to choose between these two and a share of the spoils would not come as a shock. But at a bigger price, over three and half goals at 3.80 could be the route to take. Johan Elmander has found his shooting boots for the Bolton while Kenwyne Jones and Jon Walters have both both hit the target for the visitors. It is Trotters v Potters and some excitement is on the agenda.
Verdict: Bolton 2 Stoke 2
Fulham v Tottenham
The international break has been a blessing for Fulham as it has given Moussa Dembele the chance to get fit again after being involved in a nasty tackle at Stoke in the Carling Cup. The ankle injury he sustained is not as bad as first feared and he has trained three times so looks raring to go. Spurs and their recent form has been all about Rafael van de Vaart and how he has already established himself at White Hart Lane. It has meant the likes of Luka Modric and Niko Kranjcar have been overlooked. The latter's patience could pay off and I rather like his chance of a goal at Craven Cottage. He struck twice for Croatia in their Euro 2012 qualifying campaign win in Israel last weekend and that is something Harry Redknapp will not have missed. He could potentially be factor from off the bench and the 4.33 on offer might just be worth a second glance.
Verdict: Fulham 1 Tottenham 2
Man Utd v West Brom
Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United have drawn their last two Barclays Premier League games but they were away from home and back at Old Trafford it should be business as usual against West Brom. For while the Red Devils have drawn all four of their away league games this term they have been ruthless at home, beating Newcastle, West Ham and Liverpool. West Brom sensationally won at Arsenal last month but it should be remembered that the Gunners gifted them one of the goals and United won't be so charitable. The Baggies are better judged by their away defeats at Chelsea and Liverpool, particularly the Stamford Bridge game where their openness cost them dear. Perhaps another 6-0 defeat is unlikely given United's slightly iffy form, but we do think that they are capable of taking out their recent frustrations on a Baggies side that won't come to Old Trafford for a 0-0. United (-2) at 2.35 on the handicap underestimates the home side's effectiveness against lesser opponents even with doubts surrounding star player Wayne Rooney.
Verdict: Manchester United 3 West Brom 0
Newcastle v Wigan Athletic
Wigan are a difficult team to predict but while I would avoid them at odds-on in just about any fixture, they do appeal when chalked up at big prices as they can relish playing the underdog role. Whether they should be classed as the underdog when they travel to St James's Park to faceNewcastle is debatable, but the bookies certainly think they are by pricing them up at a huge 4.50. Wigan are ahead of Newcastle in the league, are unbeaten in three and have won away at Tottenham this season. Newcastle have lost their last two games in the league, their last two games at home (to Blackpool and Stoke) and look dodgy odds-on chances to me. Wigan aren't a team to have your last bet on, or even to stick in a multiple. But at this price for this test they are well worth chancing to small stakes.
Verdict: Newcastle 1 Wigan 2
Wolves v West Ham
This bottom of the table clash is particularly important for Wolves who play Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal in their four following fixtures. Their problem is West Ham are just beginning to turn their form around, as they are unbeaten in four since losing to Chelsea. It's hard to choose between the two and it's of no surprise that the draw has already been trimmed by a couple of bookmakers. We'll be going down the stalemate route too, and think that Wolves/Draw is worthing chancing in the half-time/full-time market at 14.50. We've already mentioned how important this game is for Wolves so they'll be eager for a fast start - and it's something they're capable of at home. They've already won the first half at Molineux against Stoke and Newcastle this season, with both those teams winning the second period. West Ham are not unfamiliar with having to rescue games from behind either and they did so last time against Fulham. 14.50 looks a fair price to us and it's the most appealing wager in what looks a tough game to call.
Verdict: Wolves 1 West Ham 1
Sunday 17th October
Everton v Liverpool
To say this Merseyside derby is a crucial clash would be some understatement. After a week at the High Court, Liverpool's ownership issue finally looks like being resolved but with that sideshow set to disappear their problems on the pitch will be back in the spotlight. Languishing in the bottom three after a terrible start to the new campaign, the Reds have to make do without Dirk Kuyt, chief tormentor of Everton in recent seasons. Considering that bad news and the just-recovered Fernando Torres looking out of sorts Liverpool are seriously lacking in firepower. It's difficult to see where their goals will come from, but one thing they shouldn't be lacking in this match is commitment. Of course, Everton will be bang up for this as well, their win over Birmingham before the international break their first of the season. With both teams struggling to play any sort of decent football I'd expect a tight, tense, in-your-face affair and the bet that appeals most is Bwin' 3.20 for a red card to be shown in the game. There have been four red cards in the last four Merseyside derbies and this has all the makings of a seriously tasty clash. Big game referee Howard Webb takes charge and though he's built up a bit of a reputation for staying in control without brandishing the reds, even he might struggle to contain this one.
Verdict: Everton 1 Liverpool 0
Blackpool v Manchester City
I've been keen to get with Blackpool this season after international breaks as their players will be fresher than most after such gaps in the schedule. However, despite being chalked up at 6.00 to win on their own patch here, they come up against the squad with the deepest pool of talent in the league. Quotes of 1.62 about a City win don't appeal, though, so our eyes are immediately drawn to the goalscorer markets. Carlos Tevez at odds-on isn't our type of bet and we'll plump for a speculative first goalscorer punt with the each-way terms so favourable. Blue Square offer 1/3 the odds for the first nine goals, effectively paying out each-way on any goal scored in the game and they go best-price about Joleon Lescott breaking the deadlock. The defender is dangerous in the opposing penalty area and often got on the scoresheet for Everton, but hasn't been as prolific for Manchester City. However, the away side should dominate at Bloomfield Road and I'd expect a pretty high corner count for Roberto Mancini's team. The pressure could tell eventually and Lescott is as likely as anyone in a City shirt to benefit when balls are flying into the box. He's worth a small bet at 26.00.
Verdict: Blackpool 0 Manchester City 3
PICKS:
SATURDAY
Roger Johnson to receive a yellow or red card v Arsenal at5.00 at Coral
Over 3.5 goals in Bolton v Stoke at 3.80 at Bwin
Niko Kranjcar to score v Fulham at 4.33 at Bet365
Man Utd (-2) to beat West Brom at 2.35 at Bet365
Wolves/Draw in HT/FT market at 14.50 at Betsson
SUNDAY
A red card to be shown in Merseyside derby at 3.20 at Bwin
Joleon Lescott to score first v Blackpool at 26.00 at Bwin