Europa League, Group Stage Round 3
The Europa League returns on Thursday and for both English sides involved it's something of an unwelcome distraction. But that's where the similarities end.
For Manchester City, their focus is on a crucial top-of-the-table Premier League meeting with Arsenal on Sunday. For Liverpool, an equally vital showdown at the other end of the table against Blackburn. The Europa League fixture list seems to have been kinder to City, who face a home clash against Lech Poznan while Liverpool must travel to face a Napoli side currently sitting fourth in Serie A. Under-fire Anfield boss Roy Hodgson has already confirmed where his priorities lie, announcing that the likes of Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard would once again not be involved in European football's second-tier competition. "I'll leave some players out - that's for sure," he said. "Some of the more important senior players won't travel because their participation on Sunday is going to be so important to us. "It's not just a question of playing three matches in a week it's also a question of injury. "I don't think our squad is so strong that I can afford to risk them." Such talk has inevitably seen a shift in the prices, with Liverpool out to 16/5 for victory from around 15/8, while Napoli are now no bigger than evens. It looks an over-reaction. Napoli may sit fourth in the Serie A table, but that tells only half the story. Aside from Roma - dispatched admittedly impressively in a 2-0 triumph - Napoli have faced no Italian superpower. They are yet to face any other member of the current top five and have already lost to Chievo - at home - and drawn with Catania, Fiorentina and Bari. They've also drawn both their Europa League group games thus far and, with both sides looking flaky another stalemate looks a result that might just suit all parties. At 3.40 with Bet365, another draw looks the value call here. The City game looks trappy. They should certainly have too much for their opponents, but any handicap or over play on goals is fraught with danger: the scale of Sunday's task means the temptation will be there to take the foot off the gas if an early lead is secured. But there might be an angle we can exploit. While Roberto Mancini initially planned to rest star man Carlos Tevez, an ankle injury for Jo and Roque Santa Cruz's absence from the European list means City may be forced to use him. He's no bigger than 1.50 to score anytime - a price that holds little appeal due to the risk of him coming off the bench late in the game if City are struggling. Tevez has opened the scoring in City's last four Premier League outings so much better, then, to take Coral's 3.50 first goalscorer quote instead. PICKS:
Napoli and Liverpool to draw at 3.40at Bet365
Carlos Tevez to score first v Lech Poznan at 3.50at Bet365