The Carling Cup is a most dangerous competition to bet in for obvious reasons. It's status, especially in the early rounds, means managers rest their top players with youngsters drafted in for a run out.

Aston Villa v Burnley

The Carling Cup is a most dangerous competition to bet in for obvious reasons. It's status, especially in the early rounds, means managers rest their top players with youngsters drafted in for a run out. It means that odds-on Premier League teams at home against lower-league opposition come with a huge wealth warning, and Aston Villa at 1.50 are one of those. Gerard Houllier's team are having trouble scoring at the moment with just one goal scored in their last three and the continued absence of Gabriel Agbonlahor is one of the reasons. He's vital to their attacking threat and with skipper Stiliyan Petrov out injured too the Premier League side might struggle for goals again. Houllier put out a pretty strong side against Blackburn in the last round which is a positive for odds-on backers, but I still couldn't have them at these prices. Burnley lost 4-0 at home to Reading on Saturday, but that was a rare blip on their own patch. On the road they aren't so good, but this competition has brought out the best in them over the years and they disposed of Bolton (albeit at Turf Moor) in the last round. Brian Laws will demand a response from his team here and we'll chance them to spring a surprise at a general 6.35.
Verdict: Aston Villa 0 Burnley 1

Newcastle v Arsenal
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Newcastle really impressed at West Ham on Saturday evening but we can expect a much-changed side for the visit of Arsenal on Wednesday. Chris Hughton will rest plenty here ahead of their derby clash with Sunderland at the weekend and Arsenal, despite what I said at the start of this preview, are justifiably odds-on chances. The difference with Arsenal is even when they rest their top players they have decent replacements coming in and judging by Arsene Wenger's selection at Tottenham in the last round, the pressure for silverware has made him take the Carling Cup seriously this season. The Gunners are a best-price 1.83, but while we think they'll win there has to be a better value bet to be found and we think it could be Nicklas Bendtner to score anytime at 2.62. He looks likely to play here as he continues to feel his way back from injury and he looked pretty sharp when coming on to score against Manchester City at the weekend. Arsenal look sure to dominate possession at St James's Park and against a weakened Newcastle United team, a fresh and firing Bendtner could well capitalise.
Verdict: Newcastle 0 Arsenal 3

West Ham v Stoke

West Ham were dire against Newcastle on Saturday. I can't recall ever seeing a top-flight team give the ball away as often as they did in the second half and if they turn up in the same form on Wednesday, Stoke will win. The Potters could enjoy plenty of possession here then, and that will mean the Hammers will have to defend plenty of corners and long throws from Rory Delap. Avram Grant's team haven't particularly got a problem defending balls into the box, but Matthew Upson is missing through injury and pressure could eventually tell on the beleaguered Upton Park outfit. Stoke look the bet at 3.00, but we'll chance a small stake on Danny Higginbotham scoring anytime. Considering all the above he looks a very big price at 12s and he also scored the first goal from a header in the last round against Fulham.
Verdict: West Ham 1 Stoke 2

PICKS:
Burnley to beat Villa at 6.35 at Betsson.
Nicklas Bendtner to score anytime v Newcastle at 2.62 at Bet365
Danny Higginbotham to score anytime v West Ham at 12.00 at Bet365
 

Tuesday Games

Birmingham v Brentford

Birmingham must be licking their lips at the prospect of a place in the quarter-finals of the Carling Cup as they prepare to host League One outfit Brentford on Tuesday night. The Blues have been pretty fortunate with the way this competition has panned out for them so far, having previously been handed home ties against League One sides Rochdale and MK Dons. But rather than be complacent and put out a team packed with fringe players, boss Alex McLeish took both matches seriously with strong starting line-ups and while they had to battle hard to see off plucky Dale 3-2, they were far more ruthless in a 3-1 victory over MK Dons in round three. With the likes of Chelsea, Man City, Tottenham and Liverpool already knocked out, the 2001 runners-up will now certainly view this as a superb opportunity to reach a major domestic final - just like the other nine Premier League clubs remaining. Although there's the small matter of a derby clash against Aston Villa to prepare for this weekend, we fully expect them to progress. Of course, Brentford did shock an out of form Everton on penalties in the previous round but few would disagree the sporting gods were on their side at Griffin Park as they survived several lucky escapes. Their other two wins in the competition have also come at home but their away form in League One has been poor this season - winning just once from six games. If McLeish doesn't make too many changes from Saturday's 2-0 win over Blackpool at St Andrews, we feel Bwin's 2.20 about a victory to nil is a safe bet. Key defender Roger Johnson may be risked despite a calf problem due to back-up options Martin Jiranek and David Murphy being ruled out, but Brentford will still find it hard to find the net at a ground where Birmingham have kept three clean sheets in the top flight this season.
Verdict: Birmingham 2 Brentford 0

Ipswich v Northampton

Northampton made all the headlines in the previous round with their famous penalty shoot-out triumph over Liverpool but we're backing Ipswich to end their dream run on Tuesday night. Despite languishing near the bottom of League Two, the Cobblers showed tremendous character to cope with the pressure of spot-kicks at Anfield having conceded an agonising equaliser four minutes from the end of extra-time - other similar clubs would have crumbled. The result heaped further misery on Liverpool during their woeful start to the season as Northampton celebrated the most incredible result in their history. However, they've since come crashing down to earth with a bump, losing their last five games on the trot to leave them level on points with bottom club Hereford. It doesn't help their chances of causing another upset that striker Leon McKenzie, who has netted four goals in the last two games, is not fit enough to play twice in four days and needs to be rested with Saturday's crunch clash with Gillingham in mind. Ipswich are also out of form having seen their Championship promotion challenge dented by three straight defeats, but there's no way Roy Keane will accept another below-par performance, especially against inferior opposition. Following the 2-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Saturday, Keane told the club's official website: "Now we need to respond on Tuesday night in what is a big game for us against Northampton and a chance to get to the quarter-finals of the cup." Having progressed to this stage on the back of three away wins against Exeter, Crewe and Millwall, Town will be eager to make home advantage count and one man out to impress will be Connor Wickham. The 17-year-old starlet, linked with the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United, could start his first game for over a month and looks tempting at 2.20 with Bet365 to score anytime. Wickham hasn't found the net this season but this is mainly down to missing the first six games through injury while he's recently been used as a substitute.
Verdict: Ipswich 3 Northampton 0

 Leicester v West Brom

Premier League high flyers West Brom will be defending a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions when they visit Leicester on Tuesday night for a place in the quarter-finals. The Baggies' incredible start to the season has seen them win at Arsenal and draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford, where they were 2-0 down, while they were lying fourth for 24 hours following their 2-1 home victory over Fulham on Saturday. West Brom also knocked big spending Man City out of the Carling Cup in the previous round - although both managers named weakened line-ups - and it's no surprise to see them favourites at a best of 11/8 with Sky Bet to beat the Championship strugglers at the Walkers Stadium. Although one could argue Roberto Di Matteo's men are in a secure enough position in the league to make a real effort in this competition, it looks as though the Italian will once again rotate his squad. Albion are without central defender Jonas Olsson and striker Marc-Antoine Fortune anyway due to injuries, while four-goal leading scorer Peter Odemwingie, who has missed the last two games with a knee setback, won't be rushed back. This does give the Sven-Goran Eriksson's men a decent opportunity to spring a surprise, and backing them at 2.10 to qualify with Bet365 would be a reasonable punt. Yes, they do head into this clash on the back of a 2-0 loss at Swansea but before that they had taken seven points from their previous three games to climb out of the relegation zone following an awful start to the campaign. However, we're more keen to take Bet365's 2.10 about Leicester scoring the first goal of this match. The Foxes have netted first in four of their last five games while the Baggies have conceded the opening goal in eight of the 11 games they've played in all competitions.
Verdict: Leicester 2 West Brom 1

Man Utd v Wolves
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Wayne Rooney agreed to a new deal at Manchester United last week after being convinced by Sir Alex Ferguson, David Gill and the Glazer family that the club will "continue being successful and winning things". The Carling Cup probably wasn't exactly what he had in mind. Nevertheless, the Red Devils are favourites to lift the trophy - 2.87 with Bet365 - following the exits of Chelsea, Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool in the previous round although Arsenal remain hot on their heels in the betting at 3/1. On Tuesday night the holders host a struggling Wolves side who haven't won since their 4-2 victory over League One Notts County in the third round more than a month ago and we can't see a shock result occurring here. The injured Rooney obviously won't be part of United's largely second-string but Michael Owen should return to action with Javier Hernandez set to be rested after scoring both goals in the 2-1 win at Stoke on Sunday. United have won this trophy three times in the last five seasons so nobody doubt their policy of blooding youngsters and fringe players pays off while last year they did enough to see off Mick McCarthy's side 1-0 in the third round. Considering Wolves are without a league win since the opening day of the season - a run which has seen them slip into the relegation zone - you can understand why they're as big as 1.33 to triumph inside 90 minutes and 1.11 to progress. Rather than backing United at odds-on prices, we're interested in backing Owen to score first at 6.00 with Bet365. The 30-year-old is expected to partner Federico Macheda up front and willbe hungry for goals having bagged a brace in the 5-2 win at Scunthorpe in the last round. He followed that up with the equaliser in the 2-2 draw at Bolton but has missed out recently due to injury. This is the ideal chance for him to get back on track.
Verdict: Man Utd 2 Wolves 0

Wigan v Swansea

Swansea will be roared on by a travelling army of 5,000 supporters at the DW Stadium on Tuesday night as they look to put one over on former boss and player Roberto Martinez. The Italian is bracing himself for a hostile reception from Swans fans, who eagerly snapped up their entire allocation, after he left them acrimoniously just over a year ago to take charge of Wigan. They branded him Judas at the time and they are sure to use this game as an opportunity to further voice their disapproval. More importantly, Championship high-flyers Swansea should fancy their chances of causing an upset as they head into this fixture on the back of a five-match unbeaten run which has propelled them into third place in the table. Wigan, by contrast, have endured a mediocre start to their season and are currently just one place above the relegation zone. The Latics were three minutes away from being dumped out of the Carling Cup at home by Preston in the third round, but late goals from Jordi Gomez and Charles N'Zogbia sent them through in dramatic circumstances. But we don't think they'll be so lucky this time and will back Swansea at 3.40 with Bet365 to qualify for the quarter-finals. The Swans fans will generate most of the atmosphere if Wigan fans fail to flock to this one and this can only benefit the visiting team.
Verdict: Wigan 1 Swansea 2