English Premiership Previews: Round 10
The Second City Derby gets this Sunday's action under way with Villa boss Gerard Houllier in the hotseat for the first time in this clash.
Sunday 31st October
Aston Villa v Birminngham
The Second City Derby gets the day's action under way with Villa boss Gerard Houllier in the hotseat for the first time in this clash. If his previous derby record counts for anything then he certainly has an advantage - he went nine matches unbeaten when at the helm with Liverpool against Everton and then continued the trend for Lyon when they faced St Etienne. "Composure and character" are his watchwords and he will be hoping his players will be able to keep their emotions in check and pick up the three points. Opposite number Alex McLeish though process is in a similar vein and he also believes that his side can remain cool and handle the pressure. I think Villa defender Richard Dunne sums up the situation nicely - "these are high-intensity games and there is not a lot of great football". The two fixtures last season were edged 1-0 by Villa and backing a limited amount of goals may be the way to go once again. The likes of Nikola Zigic and Emile Heskey have had their critics but seem to be settling into life in the Premier League and enjoying a bit of a renaissance respectively. They both seem likely candidates to find the back of the net but I don't expect this one to turn into a shootout - under 2.5 total goals at 1.70 (bwin) would not come as much of a surprise.
Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Birmingham 1
Newcastle v Sunderland
The day's second big derby fixture sees the 142nd running of the Tyne-Wear encounter with just one point separating the pair in mid-table. Toon boss Chris Hughton looks to be feeling the pressure a little with continued speculation over his future - even after last week's 2-1 triumph at West Ham. The midweek 4-0 Carling Cup exit handed out by Arsenal will not have eased his mood. But a win in this one at St James' could change things significantly as they host a side that has still to win a Premier League match away from home. That said, they are unbeaten in seven games currently and have not conceded in the last three - a good slice of that record has been down to Titus Bramble at the back, who seems to be thriving under Steve Bruce and has looked rock-solid. I would not be shocked to see that little spell without conceding a goal ended and the man who could find the target is Shola Ameobi. The striker is closing in on 300 appearances for Newcastle and he and a reformed Andy Carroll are likely to prove a handful. Ameobi is unpredictable but has a knack of producing something special every now and again, particularly against their local rivals. He scored in both fixtures against Sunderland a couple of seasons ago and also netted twice at St James' back in 2005 - so a small interest on him popping up once again is suggested.
Verdict: Newcastle 2 Sunderland 1
Bolton v Liverpool
"We have to go to Bolton and try to play the same way we did at Anfield and if we do that we'll have a big chance of winning." That was the verdict of Liverpool midfielder Lucas following last week's much-needed win over Blackburn. However, beating Bolton on the road is a much tougher task than seeing off a struggling Rovers side on home soil. Not only are Bolton an improving side under Owen Coyle's astute leadership - one we feel will finish in the top half - but Liverpool's problems away from home run long and deep. In 2010 their away record in all competitions has now reached a miserable won four, drawn nine, lost nine. While Rafael Benitez presided over the majoirty of those games, Roy Hodgson has been unable to get the side out of the rut and they have picked up just one point from a possible 12 in the league so far. Admittedly there have been some tough fixtures, but anyone who rates Bolton away an easy game these days is plain wrong. The Trotters have yet to lose on home soil this season - indeed they have one lost one game full stop in the league. Although plenty of those games have been draws, they look capable of taking advantage of Liverpool's fragile confidence. Ivan Klasnic's arrest this week has hardly been ideal but he's only been a bit-part player this season and it shouldn't affect them too much. The home win at 3.40 looks too tempting to miss. Another bet to consider is backing the much-maligned Johan Elmander to score. He's bagged five goals this season with Coyle praising him thus last week: "I'm thrilled for him because he had a very good start (to the season) and people were obviously giving him praise, but he's continuing that, and that's very pleasing." Elmander is 3.60 (bet365) to net in this one but with all his goals coming away from home so far, we're going to pass on this occasion.
Verdict: Bolton 2 Liverpool 1
PICKS:
Bolton to win v Liverpool at 3.40 at Bet365
Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Birmingham at 1.70 at Bwin
Shola Ameobi to score anytime v Sunderland at 2.75 at Bet365
Saturday 30th October
Arsenal v West Ham
Backing goals - plenty of them - is the way to go here. Arsenal's six home games this season have seen the Gunners find the net no less than 25 times. In four of those games they have scored at least four goals and it should also be pointed out that the other two games have brought two home goals. More can be expected against the league's bottom side. While Arsenal were beating Newcastle 4-0 in midweek, West Ham also won in the Carling Cup, beating Stoke 3-1. However, despite not playing their strongest side, the likes of Scott Parker and Carlton Cole could have done without going to extra time and playing 120 minutes. They could well tell in the latter stages of this match and Arsenal aren't a side to ease up these days. Bet365 offer 2.37 that Arsenal score four or more goals. It seems fair given the stats and the circumstances. It's also worth considering backing Samir Nasri. We were gutted to highlight his goalscoring prowess last weekend only to resist backing him to net at Manchester City. In sparkling form, he duly did so and now has seven goals in his last seven games. He's 2.50 to find the target in this one and we can't back off again. Bwin are odds-on, so it's a price that screams value, especially when you consider there's every chance he could be back on penalties following another Cesc Fabregas miss from the spot at Eastlands.
Verdict: Arsenal 4 West Ham 1
Blackburn v Chelsea
The league leaders are set to be given a stern test when they visit Blackburn on Saturday. The defending champions have played some scintillating football so far, scoring 25 goals and conceding a miserly two in nine matches, and they are already a healthy five points clear at the top. But regardless of Rovers currently struggling in 17th spot, they will not allow the Blues to strut their stuff at Ewood Park without offering plenty of resistance. Sam Allardyce's side, along with Wolves and Stoke, have come under fire of late for their physical approach. But tough-tackling Blues captain Terry feels the recent criticism directed at teams such as Blackburn is "unfair". It was interesting to see him add this week: "We can't expect to go to Ewood Park and pick up three points just because we're Chelsea Football Club. First and foremost we've got to go there and have a fight with them. We have to be prepared for a scrap." With neither side having played in midweek, Rovers go into this clash on the back of last Sunday's 2-1 defeat at Liverpool and will hope to welcome back defenders Ryan Nelsen (thigh) and Christopher Samba (suspension). Chelsea were given a few anxious moments last Saturday at Stamford Bridge before seeing off a plucky Wolves side 2-0 but having won three and drawn one of their last four league visits to Ewood Park, we expect their superb start to the campaign to continue. Not surprisingly bearing in mind current form and league positions, Carlo Ancelotti's side are a best-priced 1.49 with Betsson to chalk up their eighth victory of the season which has no appeal to us. Rovers can be backed at 7.50 with Bwin and Bet365, while the draw is widely available at 4.30 and might tempt a few punters, but we believe class will tell and are steering clear of this one.
Verdict: Blackburn 1 Chelsea 3
Everton v Stoke
After opening an unbeaten run despite some tricky fixtures in their last four games, we are about to see whether Everton have truly turned the corner. Stoke at home is the sort of fixture their fans would have put down as a three-point banker at the start of the season and with games against Blackpool and Bolton to follow, they will be eyeing a place in the top half of the table that many had expected from day one. Yet they have problems in midfield at present with Marouane Fellaini, Leon Osman and Jack Rodwell are out with long-term injuries while Mikel Arteta is battling to be fit after missing last week's game at Spurs. Things are looking healthier up front though with Yakubu looking due a goal after a good start to the new season. After a ruptured Achilles, he hadn't looked the same player who scored 20-plus goals in 2007/08 but is now causing problems again. He's 2.60 (Bwin) to net here - worth considering. Louis Saha is also fit again and they should cause the visiting defence problems. Stoke have injury doubts over Kenwyne Jones and Jermaine Pennant and they were another side taken to extra time on Wednesday night, albeit with a few changes. With Stoke having lost three of their four away games so far, continuing a poor trend from them on the road in the top flight, Everton should probably have enough to come through this one, but odds-on quotes across the board don't appeal.
Verdict: Everton 2 Stoke 1
Fulham v Wigan
We're convinced Wigan should not be on offer at 4.00 for this one. Yes, they were a team to avoid on their travels last year, suffering numerous heavy defeats, but manager Roberto Martinez is no mug. He has acted to rectify that and the early signs are that a fix of sorts has been found. They are unbeaten in their three away games so far, conceding just two goals in the process. Spurs were beaten on their last trip to London so heading to Craven Cottage should not hold fears. While Fulham have proved tough to beat, the fact is they've only won one league game this season and some fans will be getting worried. Certainly odds-on quotes about a home win should be avoided. Instead it's a case of how to get with Wigan. The draw no bet option at 3.40 could tempt some, although as said above Fulham are tough to beat, especially at home. Instead the double-chance market makes more sense - you get Wigan and the draw on your side for 1.80. Snap it up while you can.
Verdict: Fulham 0 Wigan 1
Manchester United v Tottenham
One word can sum up Tottenham's record at Old Trafford - woeful. They have not triumphed in the league at the 'Theatre of Dreams' since 1989 and overall have chalked up just 35 wins over United in 146 league games. However, Spurs are made of sterner stuff these days and will certainly fancy their chances of at least avoiding defeat. The north London side have a squad whose depth is the envy of most of their rivals and competing in the Champions League for the first time will mean the likes of Gareth Bale, Tom Huddlestone and Luke Modric will mature far more quickly than they might otherwise have done. Their start to the current campaign has had its ups and downs with league defeats to Wigan and West Ham, a Carling Cup hammering at the hands of Arsenal and that extraordinary 4-3 loss to Inter Milan in Europe offset by impressive wins over Villa, Stoke, Fulham and FC Twente. That Carling Cup loss could be a blessing in disguise as it gave Spurs arare midweek off, while Manchester United - even though Sir Alex Ferguson made a plethora of changes - were pushed by Wolves before securing their place in the last eight with a 3-2 win. As if to prove the point, Alan Hutton said this week: "It's brilliant to have a clear week so that we can take it easy and make sure we get the rest in before another tough week ahead." United go into the match in third place, level on points with Arsenal and five behind Chelsea, even though they have drawn five of the nine league matches so far. It's fair to say United have suffered badly with key players being unavailable leading to them dropping points against Fulham, Everton, Bolton, Sunderland and West Brom. They will be without Wayne Rooney for this one and we feel Spurs are more than capable of getting something out of the game especially with United having drawn so many of late. It's the draw, at a best of 4.00 with Bet365, that takes our fancy and we also think there could be plenty of goals with defences unlikely to be on top in an entertaining encounter.
Verdict: Manchester United 2 Tottenham 2
Wolves v Manchester City
The doom-mongers have rounded on Wolves in recent weeks. Not only are they in the relegation zone with just one win to their name, but it's suggested things will get worse before they get better as Mick McCarthy's men are n the middle of a run of four matches against the top four. However, we're not writing them off by any means for this clash. They may have been beaten 2-0 at Chelsea last week, but few sides have created as much at Stamford Bridge as Wolves did and McCarthy was fully justified in his pride after the game. They also impressed at Manchester United on Tuesday night, albeit against a virtual second XI. We shouldn't read too much into City's 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal last week - Dedryck Boyata's sending-off after four minutes left them with an uphill task - but of more relevance are a worrying lack of clean sheets (none in the last five games) and an away record which has already seen them lose at Sunderland. Wolves can be backed at 5.50 to win the game, but again it's the double-chance market which looks a better play. The home side are 2.01 (Betsson) to avoid defeat and their performances suggest that's more than possible. Another longer shot worth considering is backing Stephen Hunt in the goalscorer markets. Just back from injury, Hunt caught the eye against Chelsea and United, getting into some good positions and it looks like it won't be long until he returns to goalscoring form. You can get 5.50 about him netting here, the only concern being that he may return to the bench. Regardless, we'll have a small punt given he's not up against the strongest defence around.
Verdict: Wolves 1 Manchester City 1
PICKS:
Arsenal to score over 3.5 goals v West Ham at 2.75 at Bet365
Samir Nasri to score at any time v West Ham at 2.50 at Bwin
Wigan & Draw in double chance market v Fulham at 1.80 at Bet365
Draw in Manchester United-Spurs at 4.00 at Bet365
Wolves & Draw in double chance market v Man City at 2.01 at Betsson
Stephen Hunt to score at any time v Man City at 5.50 at Bet365