English Npower Championship Preview: Week 15
Two of the form teams in the Championship lock horns in Saturday evening's televised clash at Pride Park and we reckon Portsmouth to beat Derby at 3.10 could be the best bet of an attractive weekend coupon.
Looking back over the past eight matches, there's little to separate the pair with Pompey top of the pile on 19 points, slightly ahead of the Rams on 17, but our logic behind this wager stems from our perception of the adage that form is temporary and class is permanent. It remains debatable whether either side will be in the mix for automatic promotion come the end of the season but the visitors appear far more likely to join the party if anyone does. You only have to look at the respective team sheets to recognise the difference in pedigree. Portsmouth are brimming with Premier League quality but the compilers continue to allow their heads to be swayed by the financial turmoil behind the scenes at Fratton Park. That's not to say that we don't acknowledge the day-to-day difficulties facing Steve Cotterill but his problems are ones he can work to his advantage by creating a siege mentality within the dressing room and he appears to be playing his hand perfectly from a psychological perspective. Of course, Derby aren't to be underestimated in their current state. Nigel Clough's men have been ruthless on home soil in recent weeks, winning their last four matches by an aggregate scoreline of 15-2, but it's a sequence of results that includes three of the current bottom four. Perhaps of greater relevance to this game is the eight points they dropped in their first three games at Pride Park against Cardiff, QPR and Sheffield United. By contrast, Pompey have gradually started to assert themselves in greater challenges as the weeks pass and they can follow up impressive victories in their last two away games at Millwall and Hull City with success against the Rams. If only to reinforce that final point, it's a measure of Portsmouth's progress that they beat Nottingham Forest last weekend and, by now, we should all appreciate how well a Billy Davies team usually performs at this time of year. So it's without hesitation that we'll take the Reds to get their promotion bid back on track with victory at faltering Watford. The Hornets have served us well at some big prices this season but it's perhaps not surprising that a young side is suddenly struggling to come to terms with the close attention that opponents are now paying them. Scunthorpe and Derby have both exposed significant cracks to smash six goals past Malky Mackay's men in the past fortnight and you can rest assured Davies will have been drooling over the DVDs of those matches in his editing suite. For those who need reminding of just how clinically the canny Glaswegian preys on others shortcomings once the clocks have gone back, his personal record between November and January in six seasons managing at this level reads W40 D15 L7 F97 A41, which is truly staggering. Needless to say, we'll gladly take the 2.80 being offered on them landing the spoils at Vicarage Road and the more adventurous among you might also wish to throw a few quid at Bet365 13/5 clean sheet quote or the generally-available 4/1 on Forest to win to nil. Meanwhile, we're all for lauding the enigmatic charm of Sven-Goran Eriksson but we simply can't overlook the prospect of backing Barnsley at better than 3.00 on home soil. The Tykes have won 12 out of 27 at Oakwell under Mark Robins, which makes them a 5/4 shot against your average Championship outfit and you'd have to say the Foxes fall pretty squarely into that bracket based upon what we've seen over the course of the first three months. We've no doubt Eriksson is the right man to bring some much-needed stability to the Walkers Stadium but it requires more than a 1-0 win against struggling Preston to convince us they've found their best form and consistency at this early stage. Indeed, this fixture should be a much more fitting test of their ability to get back into the mix towards the top of the table and we'll doff our caps if they take all three points back down the M1. But while uncertainty lingers, the odds on the home win are too good to resist. Barnsley might well languish some way behind the visitors come the end of the campaign but they will almost certainly remain in the division by virtue of their excellent home form and the price is right to get them onside. PICKS:
Barnsley to beat Leicester at 3.00 at Bet365.
Nottingham Forest to beat Watford at 2.80 at Bet365 and Betsson.
Portsmouth to beat Derby at 3.10 at Bet365.