English Premiership Previews: Round 12
Undoubtedly this week's big game is tonight, and we fancy the 'noisy neighbours' to take the bragging rights. Manchester United may still be unbeaten - and have won their last three - but they still have just one away win to their name.
Wednesday 10th November
Aston Villa v Blackpool
In a congested Premier League table, Aston Villa are going the wrong way with no win in their last five (three draws and two defeats). While they remain unbeaten at home, their last two have ended goalless and they've won just twice at Villa Park. Gerard Houllier's side are certainly hard to beat, having conceded just once at home this season but the lack of goals is becoming a real concern: they've netted just twice in their last four home games. Blackpool's best Premier League results have come away from home having won three and lost three on the road. They've been thrashed a couple of times - 6-0 at Arsenal and 4-0 at Chelsea - but Villa are simply not in that class. More instructive might be impressive wins at Liverpool (2-1) and Newcastle (2-0) as well as an opening-day 4-0 thrashing of Wigan at the DW. On balance, this could well end all square, but Blackpool's Charlie Adam makes a bit of each-way appeal at 12.00 in Bwin's first goalscorer market. He's obliged in two of the last five and takes penalties.
Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Blackpool 1
Chelsea v Fulham
This one looks pretty easy to call: Chelsea have a perfect home record after five games, Fulham are yet to win away from Craven Cottage. The Blues have been simply awesome at the Bridge: yet to concede, led every game at half-time, 16 goals scored. Fulham may not have an away win, but they have lost only once (West Brom 2-1) with draws at Bolton, Blackpool, Blackburn and West Ham. This, however, is a big step up in class. The layers are taking no chances with Chelsea just 1.20 for victory, 4/6 to win to nil and 8/13 to be winning at half-time and full-time. The best value might be on a fast start for the home side, who have scored inside 10 minutes four times already this season and will be keen to make an impression quickly after Sunday's tame defeat at Liverpool. A Chelsea goal inside 10 minutes is 3.80 with Bet365, and that looks worth a small play.
Verdict: Chelsea 4 Fulham 0
Everton v Bolton
After a rotten start to the campaign, Everton seem to have found their feet in a six-match unbeaten run including three wins (their first of the season) and three draws. They've conceded just three goals in that time, and all their wins have been to nil. Bolton, though, are a tough nut to crack. Their only away defeat came at Arsenal, alongside three draws plus a win at West Ham, and they were impressive in beating a woefully off-colour Tottenham 4-2 at the Reebok at the weekend. Everton, though, are unlikely to gift Bolton opportunities like Spurs did and the resurgent Toffees to win to nil at 13/8 is the way to go.
Verdict: Everton 2 Bolton 0
Man City v Man United
Undoubtedly the big game of the night, and we fancy the 'noisy neighbours' to take the bragging rights. Manchester United may still be unbeaten - and have won their last three - but they still have just one away win to their name. Weekend defeats for Arsenal and Chelsea meant it was an excellent weekend for this pair after both picked up victories, but City were undeniably the more convincing. Carlos Tevez returned for City at West Brom, and the talismanic influence of the Argentine on his side is obvious. He's already got seven goals in 10 games this season and will be up for this one. You could do worse than the 11/8 anytime scorer quotes on Tevez, but we think there might be better value elsewhere. City have been level at half-time in six of their 11 Premier League games this season and gone on to won three of them. A repeat of that pays 6.00 with Bwin, and that looks more than fair in a game that promises to be close but we expect the hosts to shade.
Verdict: Man City 2 Man United 1
Newcastle v Blackburn
Remember about, ooh, a week ago when Chris Hughton was apparently poised for the sack? Now three straight wins have seen his Newcastle side rocket from 15th to fifth. Their last home game was that stunning 5-1 rout of local rivals Sunderland, sandwiched between impressive away wins at West Ham and Arsenal. They're even money to beat a mediocre Blackburn side - whose victory over Wigan at the weekend was their first win in five - and that looks decent enough value. But the Magpies have led at half-time in four of their five wins, so Bwin's 3.40 about Newcastle/Newcastle in the HT/FT looks a cracking bit of business.
Verdict: Newcastle 2 Blackburn 1
West Ham v West Brom
This doesn't look a game to get excited about. West Ham are still rock bottom with just one win to their name, although there have been some encouraging signs recently: they held Arsenal for 88 minutes and got good point at Birmingham, albeit after leading 2-0. West Brom have lost their last two to drop back into mid-table from high of fourth and will be looking to stop the rot rather. A draw looks the likeliest outcome, but this is a game to avoid.
Verdict: West Ham 1 West Brom 1
Wigan v Liverpool
Crisis, what crisis? After one victory in their opening eight league games, Liverpool have won their last three - including that impressive win over Chelsea last time out - to move back into mid-table and on the cusp of top four in a ridiculously tight table. Fernando Torres has three goals in his last three games and created the winner at Bolton. Back to his best? It's too early to say but he looks happier than the sulking, skulking figure of early season. What's also worth noting is the Spaniard's stunning record on the back of scoring a double. Last season he scored a hat-trick against Hull after two against West Ham, then two versus Lille after two at home to Portsmouth. That double against Pompey started a run of four doubles in eight games. The previous season, he twice followed a two-goal blast with another in the next league game. Betsson offer only 6.50 about another Torres brace and while that's not a fancy price it's more than fair given that record. Certainly it looks a better bet than backing a Liverpool side still with only one away win at odds-on. Wigan are without a win in four, and we can't make a case for them even at 1.77.
Verdict: Wigan 1 Liverpool 2
Wolves v Arsenal
Arsenal have been surprisingly unpredictable this season. Defeated already by West Brom and Newcastle at home, but superb in victory at Man City. They've also swept sides aside with indecent ease on occasion, but came up short at Chelsea. Up against battling Wolves and no better than 1.60, Arsenal simply can't be trusted to get the job done in this one at the price despite their quality. Indeed, the home win looks more tempting at 5s, after Wolves' impressive victory over Manchester City and battling effort at Manchester United last time out.
Verdict: Wolves 1 Arsenal 1
PICKS:
Chelsea to score in first 10 minutes v Fulham at 3.80 at Bet365.
Charlie Adam to score first in Villa v Blackpool at 12.00 at Bwin.
Draw/Man City HT/FT v Man Utd at 6.00 at Bwin..
Newcastle/Newcastle HT/FT v Blackburn at 3.40 at Bwin..
Fernando Torres to score two or more v Wigan at 6.50 at Betsson.