English Npower Championship Preview: Week 17
Billy Davies and the Nottingham Forest board seem to be at loggerheads once again and while we appreciate that persistent feuding can only be damaging to the club's long-term prospects, we see some immediate value in the 2.45 quotes about the Reds beating leaders QPR on Saturday.
Davies has been involved in a long-running dispute with the club's 'acquisitions committee' over missed transfer targets and tensions were reignited last week by questions over his commitment following suggestions he was spending too much time back in Scotland. However, the Forest boss has come out fighting with his comments following Tuesday's 2-1 success over Coventry and the perfect follow-up now would be to take the scalp of unbeaten Rangers with a typically shrewd tactical display. We've reached the point in the season when genuine title credentials come under the microscope and there's no shame in opposing those who have come a long way in a short space of time. A couple of months ago, Neil Warnock remarked upon how he viewed his team as a borderline play-off outfit and while he may have been indulging in a spot of mind games as a way of managing early-season expectations, he must be surprised to have avoided defeat for so long nonetheless. However, unbeaten runs can often bring undue pressure and it's fair to say the Londoners are walking a confidence tightrope following an indifferent sequence of five draws in six matches. The R's denied us a payout with a disputed injury-time penalty at Portsmouth in midweek and though we might end up with burnt fingers by opposing the leaders so readily, we reckon this to be a period of uncertainty when it's time to get after them. The clean sheets that were coming so freely earlier in the campaign now appear to have dried up with Warnock's men breached in each of the last four matches and their schedule has been punishing enough of late to hint at vulnerability. Meanwhile, Watford have been on the wrong side of a few high-scoring encounters in recent weeks but we haven't lost faith in their ability to land some big prices on the road and they look worth an interest at 4.65 for the trip to Burnley. The Hornets were beaten 3-2 by bottom club Crystal Palace in midweek but we're suitably impressed by the fact they amassed 12 corners and 15 shots on target in that game, which suggests not much has changed about a team that stuck six past Millwall at the New Den in September. The Clarets are being talked about in heavyweight terms since their return to the Championship but results have been far from what you'd expect from genuine promotion contenders in recent weeks. The Lancashire outfit have picked up just two victories in their 11 league outings, both of which came against poor travellers from the other side of the Pennines in the shape of Hull and Barnsley, and though they possess the personnel to make a mockery of this bet on their day, their inconsistency calls for a speculative punt on the visitors. Finally, Betsson have stuck their head above the parapet with a 3.75 quote on Scunthorpe to beat Cardiff at home and we'll make no apologies for being sucked in by that figure. The Iron are persistently under-rated in our view and it's a measure of how unfashionable they are that Nigel Adkins was only ever lauded once he left the club for Southampton, upon which began a new excuse for writing off a club that is a model of stability and sustainability from top to bottom. Since Adkins' defection to the south coast, his former assistant Ian Barraclough has stepped into the breach and has done a fine job in steadying the ship, taking some notable scalps at big prices along the way. The only disconcerting aspect of this bet is the fact that they've yet to win at home during this spell but then you could argue that Scunny are far more likely to approach this fixture like an away than they have in four previous attempts under Barraclough. Naturally, Cardiff will still be smarting from defeat against bitter rivals Swansea last weekend, having failed to take the spoils at Reading on Wednesday, but Dave Jones is routinely forced to chop and change his team in order to accommodate the fitness regime of Craig Bellamy and there's a concern this could be starting to have a negative impact on the cohesion of the side. PICKS:
Watford to beat Burnley at 4.65 at Betsson.
Nottingham Forest to beat QPR at 2.45 at Betsson.
Scunthorpe to beat Cardiff at 375 at Betsson.