This week all teams are expected to be fully concentrated on their domestic league matches, since there are no European matches following except some international friendlies.

Friday 12th November 2010

20:30 CET

Dortmund vs Hamburger
The hosts grabbed a very impressive away win at Hannover by 4-0. The local rivals posed no threat and Dortmund’s away record was extended to 6 wins from 6 matches.
They have only dropped points at home so far and this will be another tricky match as Hamburger were the first team that managed to put an end to Mainz’s amazing winning streak and they did it away from home. The two teams are divided by 10 points, Dortmund being the leaders and Hamburger in 6th place, but that doesn’t mean the hosts here are hot favorites at all. They have very few solutions from the bench and eventually the regulars will get tired, so despite their huge advantage at this stage, I still wouldn’t recommend backing Dortmund to win the title.
Odds on the home win are extremely low. Hamburger have managed to stand up to teams such as Bayern, Schalke and even against Werder Bremen they equalized after conceding two goals, only to concede again 5 minutes from time and lose.
Last week I put my money on the Draw at Halftime and Hamburger proved me right. That was their 8th Halftime that ended in a draw out of 11 matches and I bet they’ll make it 9 out of 12 tonight!

• Halftime result Draw, 2.25 at bet365.com or Away win with +0.5 Asian Handicap, 2.17 at bet365.com.

Saturday 13th November 2010

15:30 CET

Kaiserslautern vs Stuttgart
The hosts couldn’t hold on to the early lead they took against Leverkusen last week and lost by 3-1 away from home. That defeat was no surprise to the team, but it did put them just 1 point away from the danger zone and with Schalke below them it is the same as if they are already in 16th place. Moreover, it confirmed that ‘lautern are very weak when playing away from home, so it is a good thing that they will face Stuttgart in front of their own fans this week. Perhaps an even better thing is that Stuttgart are also extremely weak away from home. After 5 away matches they’ve only collected 1 point, but that was against Schalke so it isn’t so safe to draw rapid conclusions. Stuttgart have collected 10 points in total, which is the same as Kaiserslautern, but they were expecting to be much higher on the table. Perhaps this is why they have put in a couple of stunning performances so far. They beat Gladbach by 7-0 in matchday 4 and Werder Bremen by 6-0 last week, scoring on every chance they got in order to reassure themselves that they are indeed one of the top teams in Germany and that they don’t belong anywhere near the danger zone.
The fact is that Stuttgart have indeed improved their play lately and they have won all 4 matches for the Europa League group stage so far, which means they have already advanced to the next round and they have taken the top spot in group H unless a miracle happens. All in all, the visitors are in better shape and I don’t expect them to lose this.

• Away win Draw-no-bet, 1.70 at bwin.com

Koln vs Gladbach
It may strike you as too early, however this is a match of the utmost importance for both clubs since the loser will be occupying last place after this weekend and will have a gap of up to 5 points dividing them from salvation. Currently, Koln are in 17th place with 8 points and Gladbach are in 18th with just 7 points from 11 matches. However, Koln have collected 7 of those points at home and it is true that they perform better when playing in front of their own fans. Plus it is commonly admitted that Koln deserved more points from their matches so far. They haven’t lost any match by more than 2 goals, but they have managed to drop a few points during the closing stages of certain matches. Gladbach on the other hand have already suffered many heavy defeats by 3, 4 and even by 7 goals. They also seem to have collected 6 out of 7 points against some of the big clubs such as Leverkusen, Schalke, Wolfsburg and Bayern. That draw against Bayern last week put an end to a negative regord of 3 straight defeats, but the Gladbach still haven’t won a match since August! Podolski and Novakovic are expected to cause some serious issues to Gladbach’s defenders, who have let in 33 goals so far, a terrible average of 3 goals per game. Feel free to cover your bets on the draw if you like.

• Home win 2.15 at bwin.com or Home win draw-no-bet, 1.60 at bwin.com

St.Pauli vs Leverkusen
The hosts Lost 3-0 to Schalke last week and that was their third consecutive defeat. As a result, they saw their gap from the danger zone being reduced to just 4 points and with more of the same kind of matches approaching (Wolfsburg, Werder, Bayern and Mainz will follow) they know they have to try and grap as many points as possible in order to avoid going under the danger zone in the following weeks. In theory, St. Pauli should have been very positive when playing at home, however they’ve only collected 4 points from 5 matches in front of their own fans and if it wasn’t for some away wins, they would be in a much worse position right now. Quite interesting is the fact that the hosts have conceded first in 7 out of their 11 matches so far. They lost 5 of those 7 matches and won the other 2.
Leverkusen beat Kaiserslautern last week by 3-1 at home and they are currently in 3rd place. Their gap from Mainz was reduced from 9 to just 3 points in just 2 weeks. Their away record is excellent, especially considering they’ve beaten Dortmund, Stuttgart, Wolfsburg and Schalke. Moreover, their defenders have been letting in fewer and fewer goals lately. Everything seems to favor the visitors, but I can’t recommend the away win so easily since I believe St. Pauli will eventually start taking advantage of the home factor and Leverkusen are still not the most convincing side in the Bundesliga. Once again, I will stick with the pick that paid off last week.

• Halftime result Draw, 2.25 at Betsson.com

Wolfsburg vs Schalke
Wolfsburg proved me right last week, when I had commented that they were going from bad to worse. They lost 3-1 to Frankfurt away from home, once again showing some huge problems in defence. On the other hand, Schalke’s fans enjoyed watching their overpaid attacking duo, Raul and Huntelaar, scoring 3 goals against St.Pauli last week at home and they hope their attackers will take full advantage of Wolfsburg’s defensive issues. As a matter of fact, it is about time Schalke started scoring a few goals, because up until last week they had scored the least amount of goals among all the teams in the league. For a team that invested over 30 millions euro in their attack, that was a disappointing statistic. Wolfsburg are generally stronger at home, where 2 out of their 3 victories came with a clean sheet, but their recent form indicates that Schalke will manage to break down their defences so I believe that only bets involving goals are likely to be confirmed. Those of you who like to risk a little bit more can pick Dzeko and Raul or Huntelaar as anytime goalscorers, currently at odds around 3.00

• Both teams to score, 1.53 at bet365.com or over 2.5 goals, 1.68 at bet365.com.

Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Who would have thought that a title contender such as Werder Bremen would have conceded 27 goals after 11 matches? After Nurnberg gave them a performance to remember two weeks ago, Werder suffered one of their worst defeats ever last week against Stuttgart away from home. Conceding 3 goals in each half, they lost 6-0 and Marko Arnautovic called the team “a dump” in front of cameras, causing even worse reactions to the fans. Sporting director Klaus Allofs stated that it was the worst Werder performance ever, but he is even more concerned now due to an injury that Claudio Pizarro has suffered. Coach Thomas Schaaf is still struggling to find a worthy replacement for Naldo at the back.
Frankfurt are currently in 4th place with 19 points collected already after 11 matches. That’s 5 points more than Werder. Even better, Frankfurt are in really great shape! They’ve won 5 out of their latest 6 games in the Bundesliga plus another one for the Cup, by constantly scoring 2 or more goals. Fanis Gkekas is leading the scorers’ table with 11 goals after 11 matches and he also scored twice during the Cup match.
I believe that Werder Bremen will have to pay more attention in defence this week, but I can still see quite a few goals being score in the Weserstadion.

• Over 2.5 goals, 1.47 at bet365.com.

18:30 CET

Mainz vs Hannover
Former leaders, Mainz, are now required to recover from two defeats in a row, or if you’d prefer, three defeats over the last four matches plus getting knocked out of the Cup. Hannover could be the ideal opponent for the occasion, since they are coming from two defeats in a row with the same humiliating 4-0 score. Haggui was sent off against Dortmund last week, so he is suspended this week. Over the last month, Hannover have lost 4 out of 5 matches, so their surprisingly positive start has ended and they are starting to look more like the squad that barely made it out of the danger zone last season. Things seem to be pretty straightforward for Mainz: As far as I am concerned, if they don’t bounce back this week against Hannover, they will need a miracle to take one of the top spots at the end of the season. However, if they can regain their confidence and collect the 3 points here, they have another two matches coming that they can also win and that will give them a nice boost to move upwards on the table once again. This match could be tricky, but odds on the home win are more than fair.

• Home win, 1.73 at bet365.com

Sunday 7th November 2010

15:30 CET

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg
Both teams have started the season in a great manner, especially since in Freiburg’s case the main goal remains to avoid relegation. They are currently tied in 5th place with 18 points each. Hoffenheim are very strong when playing at home, where they’ve won 4 out of 5 matches already. Freiburg, on the other hand, have now lost 3 away games in a row, conceding 8 goals, but still managing to score 4. They have a very talented hitman, Papiss Cisse, who’s currently 2nd on the scorers’ table with 9 goals. Last week, Hoffenheim lost to Hamburger away from home by 2-1, once again conceding near the end of the game and that caused the entire squad to do some brainstorming in order to find out what’s wrong with the team’s inability to maintain a positive result just before the match ends. They’ve conceded late goals in at least 4 of their 7 latest matches, causing them to drop 3 points altogether. Freiburg managed another impressive result as they beat Mainz at home by 1-0. That was their 6th win after 11 matches and only Mainz and Dortmund have won more games. The home factor could play its part here, but unfortunately the odds on the home win are simply ridiculous. The only fact I will rely on, to make my recommendation here, is that both teams have managed to score goals in each and every one of their matches so far. That’s a total of 22 consecutive matches that we’ve seen goals coming from either one of these teams. Pretty impressive.

• Over 2.5 goals, 1.60 at bet365.com

17:30 CET

Bayern Munich vs Nurnberg
This match could provide us with the much anticipated return of Frank Ribery. Bayern’s defender has fully recovered and he is expected to play this Sunday for the first time after he suffered an injury during matchday 5. In other news, Bayern’s officials are trying to push on with the contract talks with Bastian Schweinsteiger, in order to tie him to the club beyond 2012. A few days ago, it was Michael Ballack himself who stated that Schweini would make an excellent addition to either Real Madrid or Manchester United, but Rummenigge responded to the rumors by making it clear that the player is not for sale.
Nurnberg are in great shape. They’ve now won 3 matches in a row, scoring 8 goals, but still conceding 4. Bayern have improved their attacking efficiency lately, however they’ve conceded 5 goals during the last 2 matches. Their draw result against Gladbach last week requires an immediate response from the champions, since they now have a 12-point gap dividing them from 1st place. Nurnberg have been amazing when facing the big clubs this season, so it wouldn’t be wise to suggest the home win so lightly. On the other hand, we could settle once again for a likely over 2.5 goals bet.

• Over 2.5 goals, 1.57 at bet365.com, or Both Teams to Score, 1.92 at Betsson.com

My picks:

• Werder over 2.5 goals + Bayern over 2.5 goals + Mainz to win = 4.01 at Bet365
• Bayern v Nurnberg both to score + St.Pauli v Leverkusen HT draw + Hamburger +0.5hdc = 9.30 at Betsson