English Npower League 1 Preview: Week 17
Having profited at their expense on a couple of occasions in recent weeks, the time has come to turn the tables and get onside with Peterborough.
The Posh were humiliated 5-1 at home by Charlton last weekend but now the mood of manager Gary Johnson appears to have evolved from self-doubt to determination and we should prepare for the possibility that his players will respond accordingly at Southampton on Saturday. They did restore some confidence with a comfortable 4-1 win over Stockport in the FA Cup on Tuesday but their wounded pride still needs to be soothed by a result that will make the mockers sit up and take notice and this fixture provides the perfect opportunity to wipe the slate clean. It's difficult to understand why such a potentially formidable outfit has been so abject of late, although it's easy to pinpoint the root cause of their deficiencies. Defence is their Achilles heel. Despite sitting eighth in the table, Posh have conceded a staggering 33 goals - more than any other team in the division - a record that largely stems from starting games half-asleep. Incredibly, more than half of that tally has arrived in the first-half of matches at London Road but away from home they appear to be much more relaxed and results have been markedly more sensible. After triggering speculation about his own future with some curious remarks following defeat against leaders Brighton, Johnson has this week received the full backing of owner Darragh MacAnthony and now he can repay the chairman's faith with a big performance at St Mary's. It should make a welcome change for the visitors to be under no pressure whatsoever and you only have to look at the respective team sheets to understand that Posh aren't too far behind their hosts when it comes to match-winning quality. For all their undoubted pedigree at this level, Southampton might not be the finished article that many have been quick to assume judging by their defeat at Carlisle last weekend. It was thought everything was in place for Saints to kick on and launch a sustained promotion assault once Nigel Adkins picked up the reins from Alan Pardew but they largely came up against mediocrity when posting six wins from eight matches prior to the trip to Cumbria. Adkins himself is fully aware of areas where the team needs to mature after his attempt to implement a 4-3-3 system backfired at Brunton Park, so we shouldn't automatically assume that everything in rosy on the south coast. All aspects considered, we feel the conditions are ripe for an upset and we'll gladly take odds of 5.20 on the visitors landing the spoils in the hope that Johnson can strike upon a way to plug the gaps in that leaky defence. Meanwhile, the layers might also be jumping to conclusions a little too readily if they think Paul Ince is going to wave a magic wand at Notts County and they could be vulnerable for the visit of spirited Tranmere. The Magpies have suffered back-to-back league defeats under their new gaffer, forcing the Guvnor himself to concede that his men face a relegation battle this season, all of which will excite the visitors as they boast a great record under Les Parry against teams around them. The Merseysiders' survival instincts can be demonstrated in the fact they averaged two points per game against the five teams who finished below them last term and they head across to Meadow Lane in decent shape, sitting one place above the hosts, having won three of their last four league outings. Last season, we repeatedly posed questions about Parry's managerial credentials and though we still have reservations about his ability to affect the outcome of matches from a tactical perspective, it's about time some credit was dished out where it's due. In his capacity as a qualified physiotherapist and sports scientist, Parry is certainly playing to his strengths judging by recent comments from midfielder John Welsh. In a recent column with The Football League Paper, Welsh admitted it still feels like pre-season with the amount of fitness work they are doing, perhaps explaining why Rovers have scored 10 goals against only three conceded in the last 15 minutes up to this point. For County, the form and fitness of Lee Hughes has been a major stumbling block. The 34-year-old scored his first goal in two months in last weekend's 3-1 defeat at Exeter but might still be some way short of his most clinical form on the back of a nagging hip complaint. And it's fair to say the Magpies probably need their star striker now more than ever because they're no longer the watertight outfit they were under the astute guidance of Steve Cotterill with the inspiring presence of Kasper Schmeichel betweenthe sticks. County have conceded two or more in 10 of their 17 league matches and that offers just enough encouragement for us to take some of the 4.00 on teenage sensation Dale Jennings to score anytime. The 17-year-old has made a real impact in his first nine starts for the club with four goals and a handful of assists, making him just about the most likely source of inspiration for the visitors but the price would suggest he still operating beneath the radar of some layers.
PICKS:
Tranmere to beat Notts County at 4.50 at Bet365.
Dale Jennings to score anytime against Notts County at 4.00 at Bet365.
Peterborough to beat Southampton at 5.20 at Betsson.