With Schalke facing Werder Bremen and Leverkusen hosting Bayern Munich, we are in for one tense weekend in Germany. Will Dortmund make the most of it and extend their lead at the top of the table? Also, a crucial week coming up for the Champions League, while teams participating in the Europa League have a free schedule.

Saturday 20th November 2010

15:30 CET

Schalke vs Werder Bremen
This could prove to be one of the most important matches this season.
Both teams are in bad shape and they are currently very far away from their desired position, as Schalke are within the danger zone with just 10 points from 12 matches and Werder are in 11th place with 15 points. So with the table leaders currently at 31 points and more than 1/3 of the season completed already, it is more than obvious that they both need to start a long winning streak in order to get back in business.
Recent form, however, speaks otherwise. Schalke grabbed their first win on matchday 5 and their second win came on matchday 11. Werder Bremen have won 4 matches so far, but during their last 3 matches they grabbed only one point at home against Frankfurt, while they lost to both Nurnberg and Stuttgart, the latter being a devastating 6-0 defeat. Schalke were tied with Wolfsburg away from home last week. They managed to equalize after going down by 2 goals during the first half. They will host Bayern in 2 weeks so they will definitely try to grab as many points as possible before the winter break marks the end of the first round this season, if they are to have any chances at all to reach their goals. In terms of betting, I believe we should once again opt for goals and goal scorers rather than results.

• Huntelaar to score anytime, 2.35 at Betsson.com or Both Teams to Score, 1.57 at bet365.com.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim
Oops, they did it again! We had warned you that Hoffenheim do concede goals during the closing stages of their matches and that Freiburg’s Cisse could strike again and so it happened that it was indeed Cisse who scored in added time causing Hoffenheim to lose a home game. That was the 5th time in 8 matches that Hoffenheim conceded near the final whistle blow. It was their second consecutive defeat and it looks like the glory in which they’ve been starting each season for 3 years now is starting to fade once again.
Frankfurt managed to grab a valuable point against Werder Bremen away from home last week. They are currently in 5th place with 20 points as opposed to Hoffenheim’s 19 points and with Freiburg and even Mainz not being very far away they are certainly aiming at a top-5 finish and they certainly have the talent in the squad to at least take their best shot at it. Their recent form is excellent, with 17 points collected during their latest 7 matches during which they are undefeated and second only to Dortmund!
Hoffenheim are always a dangerous team, but with Frankfurt fighting each match until the end while they keep conceding late goals I believe we are in for a home win here.

• Home win, 2.25 at bet365.com/Betsson.com.

Gladbach vs Mainz
This may not be the most popular match of the weekend, but I believe it is absolutely crucial for both Gladbach and Mainz to win it.
On the one hand, the hosts are in 17th place with just 10 points and still without a single victory at home and on the other hand Mainz have now lost 3 matches in a row, they haven’t scored a single goal in over 300 minutes of play and if we look at their latest 5 matches they’ve lost 4 of them and scored just 1 goal in nearly 500 minutes of play. Last week they couldn’t even score against a 10-men Hannover for almost 30 minutes. This is either the time to strike back and stay on the hunt for a top-3 or even top-5 finish, or lose to one of the worst teams in the league and become an easy target for the rest of the pack. Gladbach will have their spirits a bit high, as they have managed to get an amazing 3-3 draw against Bayern and an equally amazing 4-0 win against Koln during the last two weeks which finally broke them out of the bottom of the table. They need to keep pushing now and start winning at home if they are to secure their presence in the top league for next season. The fact remains that Mainz have a defensive line that’s extremely difficult for anyone to break down, so the most patient is more likely to escape with the 3-pointer from here.
Mainz’s 7 out of 9 latest matches were tied during the halftime break and this is a bet in Germany that’s been looking better and better every week.

• Halftime result: DRAW, 2.30 at bet365.com.

Freiburg vs Dortmund
Two of the most pleasant surprises so far this season will have to confront each other this week, as 4th placed Freiburg host leaders Dortmund in a match that the visitors will push hard for the win, but the hosts will not want to lose their momentum.
Papiss Cisse scored once again for Freiburg, granting his team a very important win against Hoffenheim away from home last week. He has scored 10 goals in 12 championship matches so far, boosting his value up to unbelievable heights and putting smiles on Freiburg’s officials faces who are seeing their 1.5M investment paying out sooner than expected.
Dortmund have achieved an amazing away record of 6 wins after 6 matches and they have a chance to extend that number this weekend. With 10 wins after 12 matches they are leading the table by 7 points from Leverkusen, the only team that’s beat them, and the aspirins are playing against Bayern this week so this is a great chance for Dortmund to extend their lead. As long as Barrios keeps scoring and the defenders stay tight they can have their hopes high, however odds on the away win are very low.

• Under 2.5 goals, 2.22 at bet365.com

Hannover vs Hamburger
Bad news for Hamburger. Not only did they lose to Dortmund last week, causing the gap between them to extend to 13 points, but they also saw defender Joris Mathijsen injure his ankle seriously in midweeks international friendly match between Netherlands and Turkey.
Bad news for Hannover too, as they had another player sent off last week and they now count 5 red cards after 12 matches, with 3 of those coming during the last 3 matches. Hannover aim at staying away from the danger zone, while Hamburger aim at a top-5 finish, however the hosts are currently in 7th place while the visitors are in 9th. The hosts are weak in defence, as they have conceded 20 goals in 12 matches, but Hamburger aren’t doing much better, having conceded 17 goals so far. This makes predicting the outcome of this match more than difficult, but thankfully we have a fact to rely on and that’s Hamburger’s 9 tied halftime results so far, a bet that just keeps getting confirmed lately.

• Halftime result: Draw, 2.25 at bet365.com.

Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern
I have really enjoyed Nurnberg so far this season. Of course, they did lose to Bayern by 3-0 last week away from home, but their achievements so far have been stunning. They’ve played 7 out of 12 matches away from home, they’ve faced Hamburger, Leverkusen, Stuttgart, Schalke, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Bayern and collected 14 points against these major clubs. With a total of 18 points they have a comfortable 8-point lead over the danger zone and the worst is now over. They’ve won 4 out of 5 matches played at home so far, while Kaiserslautern have lost 5 our of 6 matches played away from home. This, however, is just as important for Nurnberg as it is for Kaiserslautern and that’s because in case the visitors win it, the gap between them will be reduced to just 4 points and keeping in mind that there’s only one weak team between them (St. Pauli) Nurnberg will opt for the win that will give them an enormous 10-point lead over the visitors, but they should be careful enough to secure at least the draw that will preserve their current advantage.
The visitors produced a small miracle last week as they managed to grab a point at home against Stuttgart after going down by 3-0 during the second half. However, they have conceded 24 goals so far, an average of 2 goals per game, while at the same time their away form is terrible as they’ve lost 5 away games in a row.
Nurnberg will have the upper hand here.

• Home Win, 2.00 at bwin.com

18:30 CET


Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
This is the most anticipated match this week by far and the BayArena is already sold out.
The hosts managed to climb up to 2nd place last week as they beat St.Pauli away from home and later saw Mainz lose to Hannover. However, they are still 7 points away from Dortmund and they have to do anything they can to really put some pressure on the leaders. Bayern on the other hand, have had their ups and downs, but they are now undefeated for 5 matches in a row. Still, they’ve only beaten Hoffenheim away from home so far and they’ve scored only 5 goals in 5 away games, two of them against Hoffenheim and the rest against Gladbach. Bastian Schweinsteiger was nominated for the FIFA Ballon d’Or, but he ruled himself out of the running for the award as he didn’t win any major international titles. He stated that “Wesley Sneijder deserves it”.
In other news, Robben stated that he expects to be back in action after the winter break.
Leverkusen have won 3 matches in a row and currently they are the only major threat to Dortmund’s lead. The fact that they are indeed 5 points above Bayern could lead them to settle for a draw here as well, in order to at least secure that the Bavarians won’t suddenly close that gap to just 2 points. As far as I am concerned the facts are that Leverkusen have been facing problems in front of goal lately, while Bayern have scored an amazing 10 goals over the past 3 weeks. This significant improvement in Bayern’s attack makes me lean towards the visitors here, but I honestly expected the odds to be reversed, in order to put my money on the away win. Leverkusen haven’t beaten Bayern at home in over 6 years now (4 wins for Bayern and 1 draw) however, they have in fact confirmed more than a few halftime draw results this season!

• Halftime Result: DRAW, 2.30 at bet365.com or Away Win (Draw No Bet), 1.75 at bwin.com/Betsson.com or a risky Only Bayern To Score/Bayern to Win to Nil, 4.50 at bet365.com.

Sunday 21st November 2010

15:30 CET

Stuttgart vs Koln
The hosts were caught off their guards last week as they managed to not win a match they were leading by 3-0 during the second half against Kaiserslautern. That result barely kept them outside the danger zone and gave them a 3-point advantage over Koln. Needless to say, both teams desperately need to win this match, since Stuttgart are now 9 points away from a top-5 finish and Koln are 3 points away from salvation.
Sadly for Koln, they did the worst they could to help themselves last week against Gladbach at home, as they lost by 4-0 conceding all four goals during the second half.
It is quite surprising indeed the fact that their only point collected away from home so far came against Bayern Munich, but the truth is that Koln have played better than their numbers suggest so far, with the exception of their second half appearance last week of course. Stuttgart have won 3 matches at home so far with the scoreboard reading 15-0. Basically, whenever they keep a clean sheet they win. Koln have scored only 13 goals in 12 matches and only St. Pauli have scored less goals. So considering these factors I believe we are looking at a home win here, however the odds are very low so I will try my luck with something that’s worth the risk.

• Stuttgart to Win to Nil/Only Stuttgart to Score, 2.75 at bet365.com.

17:30 CET


St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg
The hosts are in terrible shape. They’ve lost 4 matches in a row, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 9. That makes them the lowest scoring team, with a total of 12 goals in 12 matches. Even worse, they’ve seen their comfortable lead over the danger zone being cut down to just 3 points. The main reason for their current position is the fact that they can’t seem to be able to win at home, despite the fact that their fans are always creating an intense atmosphere. Surely they didn’t have the easiest of schedules, but their only win at home came against Nurnberg and Nurnberg have been through a much more difficult schedule and they did extremely well.
Wolfsburg haven’t been doing much better either, especially considering they won the 2009 title and they have high expectations this season.
They have collected just 1 point more than St.Pauli and they have a terrible away record so far, just 1 win and 1 draw after 6 matches.
Last week St.Pauli lost to Leverkusen at home and Wolfsburg were tied with Schalke at home, but with Grafite and Dzeko both scoring putting their names on the scoreboard together for the first time after Wolfsburg’s only away win against Hamburger, 2 months ago. They have a more than capable attacking line, but it’s always their defence that betrays them. Dejagah was sent off last week, so he is suspended. My feeling is that St.Pauli will manage to score at least 1 goal at home, but Wolfsburg will find a way to score as well. Dzeko pays only 1.83 to score anytime.

• Both Teams to Score, 1.50 at bet365.com or Over 2.5 goals, 1.60 at bet365.com.

My picks:

• Schalke vs Werder both to score + St.Pauli vs Wolfsburg both to score + Leverkusen vs Bayern halftime draw = 5.42 at Bet365.
• Stuttgart to win to Nil + Huntelaar to score + Nurnberg to win + Frankfurt to win + Hannover vs Hamburger halftime draw = 10 trebles paying 12.50 each and 1 fivefold paying 65.43 at Bet365