Dortmund have a comfortable lead at the top of the Bundesliga table. Pursuers Bayern and Leverkusen have difficult matches ahead but can the title be decided before even the Winter Break?

Friday 26th November 2010

20:30 CET

Mainz vs Nurnberg
The hosts finally responded after 3 straight defeats and even though they fell behind twice against Gladbach, they were lucky enough to see Allagui score twice near the end of the match and grab an extremely important away win by 3-2. The squad have regained their confidence as well as second place on the table, plus those 3 points gave them a six-point lead over 6th place. With the current standings Mainz can hope for a top-5 finish. Nurnberg are almost through with their extremely difficult first-leg schedule, but after losing against Bayern, a defeat that was on schedule, they dropped some vital points against a team with the same goals, Kaiserslautern, at home last week. They conceded 3 goals during the first half when they had never before conceded more than a single goal during the first halves of their previous matches this seasons. It came as no surprise that they were completely unable to turn things around in the 2nd half even though their opponents were reduced to 10 men with still some time left on the clock. Nevertheless, they still have a 7-point lead over Koln, currently 17th, but their diminished 4-point lead over St.Pauli and Kaiserslautern will lead them to push as hard as they can for the win here. Given the fact that both these teams conceded more goals than usual last week, I expect them to pay attention to their defences this time and therefore there are only 2 bets that draw my attention.

• Under 2.5 goals 1.90 at bet365.com or Halftime result = Draw/0-0, 2.20/2.95 at bet365.com/bwin.com.

Saturday 27th November 2010

15:30 CET


Bayern vs Frankfurt
Both teams are surprisingly tied in 7th place with 20 points each and both of them dropped points last week. Bayern were equalized by a penalty that never existed against Leverkusen, while Frankfurt were humiliated by Hoffenheim as they lost in front of their own fans by 4-0. That was the second week in a row that Frankfurt didn’t score and considering they had scored 18 goals in the previous 9 matches, their inability to produce goals against teams such as Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim has caused some headaches to coach Skibbe, but this week’s problem will be containing Bayern’s attackers. Mario Gomez is on a roll! He has scored 8 goals over the past 6 matches in the Bundesliga and just a few days ago he scored twice against Roma in the Olympico for the Champions League group stage. Bayern eventually lost by 3-2 but that result means they will take a much desired 1st place in their group.
They are down 14 points from Dortmund so they know there is no room for error now. They hope to be stronger after the brake, with Robben’s return and Ribery regaining his form, but they have to set the ground for their comeback during these last 4 matches of round 1. Frankfurt seem to be a little bit dazed and confused so a home win looks likely. Unfortunately the odds are far from fair, so my pick will rely on Bayern’s productive attacking line.

• Over 2.5 goals, 1.60 at bet365.com or Bayern to win -1.0hdc, 2.10 at bwin.com.

Hamburger vs Stuttgart
This should be one of the most popular matches this week. These two were used to glory in the domestic competitions, as they are both among just the six clubs that are allowed in total to wear stars in accordance with their titles each has won. This season, however, is a totally different story for both of them. The hosts haven’t been able to keep up their rhythm lately and they’ve dropped to 9th place with just 18 points in their bags. They only upside is that they are just 3 points away from 5th place, due to the fact that almost every club is facing problems this season. The visitors on the other hand are still within the danger zone, with just 11 points. After a short breakthrough which lasted about 1 month during which they collected 7 points, they managed to drop two points against Kaiserslautern after leading by 3-0 and lose to Koln at home, a result which caused quite some turbulence within the squad, as they seem unable to gain any of the lost ground so far, while we could see some people with terrified faces even spelling the word “relegation”. After 6 away games, Stuttgart have collected only 2 points. Hamburger are coming from two away defeats, but they have shown a better face at home. Stuttgart seem to have completely lost their self-esteem and it would probably require another stunning result such as the 7-0 win against Gladbach, or the 6-0 with against Werder Bremen to lift their heads up again. I wouldn’t be surprised if I saw the hosts getting the 3-pointer here, but there is one bet that keeps paying out every week now when it comes to Hamburger (confirmed 10 out of 13 matches and 6 matthes in a row now).

• Halftime result = Draw, 2.30 at bet365.com.

Hannover vs Freiburg
We have a very interesting match in front of us here, as both teams have done surprisingly well so far. Last season they barely stayed out of the danger zone, but this season Hannover are currently in 4th place, with 22 points from 13 matches and Freiburg are in 6th with just 1 point less. The amazing fact about Freiburg is that a fortnight ago they beat Hoffenheim by 1-0 and that made them the only club in Germany to have scored at least 1 goal in all 13 matches so far! Therefore, it is only natural that Papiss Cisse is the leading scorer in Germany. He seems to be unstoppable. Both these teams have won 7 out of 13 matches so far, with Freiburg being, along with Mainz, the only club without a draw result yet. Freiburg lost to Dortmund at home last week, despite leading at halftime and Hannover beat Hamburger by 3-2 at home. The hosts have been facing many yellows and reds lately and they ought to be more careful in order to avoid suspensions.
I expect Freiburg to extend their remarkable scoring series, but I also expect Hannover to score and since the hosts haven’t yet scored just one goal in front of their own fans I could see this match turning into a goalfest.

• Both teams to score, 1.57 at bet365.com or over 2.5 goals, 1.78 at bet365.com.

Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen
It seems that the hosts have finally decided to not let their fate be decided with just seconds left on the clock, which has been the case many times this season, and they scored 4 goals against Frankfurt last week before the referee indicated how much time was to be added. That glorious victory put them back in the top-5 and closed the gap from 3rd placed Leverkusen to just 4 points. Of course Hoffenheim aren’t aiming at a top-3 finish, probably not even at a top-5, but as long as they’re up there they might as well give it a shot. Leverkusen couldn’t beat Bayern at home, where they’ve won just 2 out of 7 matches, but they were lucky enough to equalize with a highly controversial penalty. On the contrary, so far they’ve won 5 out of 6 matches played away from home (1 draw), they are the only team that beat Dortmund and they have collected 10 points from their latest 4 matches. The outcome of this match can’t be predicted easily, but Leverkusen have managed to keep a clean sheet during the last two times out and they have also continuously confirmed their favorite draw result in halftime, 7 times in total and 5 times in a row now.

• Halftime result = Draw, 2.20 at bet365.com or under 2.5 goals, 1.98 at bet365.com.

Kaiserslautern vs Schalke
The visitors could have one final chance to turn things in their favor. They’ve had a terrible season so far, but they have show signs of significant improvement lately. They’ve collected 7 points from the last 3 matches, which is more than the 6 points they had collected during their first 10 matches. Even better, they just beat Lyon by 3-0 at home this Wednesday and combined with Hapoel beating Benfica in Israel, Schalke have made it to the knockout stage of the Champions League, which should pay the club some of the money spent on players this season. Huntelaar scored twice against Lyon but it was Raul who stole the show against Werder Bremen last week. Thanks to his hat-trick Schalke crushed Werder by 4-0.
Kaiserslautern grabbed an extremely important away win against Nurnberg last week. It seems that the best result for them came when they needed it the most. They have also shown signs of improvement during the last 4 matches and that amazing 3-3 draw against Stuttgart at home a fortnight ago should keep Schalke under alert throughout the whole game.
Needless to say, Schalke have a much better squad, but their achievement in the European competition could have a negative impact on their performance this week.
Odds on the away win are quite fair, so I will back Schalke, but don’t expect this one to be my main pick.

• Away win, 2.25 at Sportingbet.com

18:30 CET

Dortmund vs Gladbach
The hosts are clearly on a roll. They managed to turn things around last week against Freiburg away from home, after falling behind due to an own goal during the first half. They scored two goals within 3 minutes near the end of the match, the second being an unfortunate own goal and then Kuba missed a chance to make it 3-1 that simply can’t be missed!
The numbers speak for themselves! Dortmund have the best offence (31 goals scored) and the best defence (8 goals conceded) by far, they have the highest winning streak along with Mainz (7 wins) and they top the current form table with 4 straight wins. They didn’t have a midweek match this time since Matchday 5 of the Europa League is due to be played the week that follows. With four matches left to be played before the break, Dortmund hope to reach at least 40 points before the break, as the target for a real chance at the title is 70 points which the other contenders will not be able to reach this time since they’ve dropped too many points already. Still, everyone know’s that it takes only a bad month or two to see advantages of up to 15 points turn into dust, so I don’t expect them to lose either focus or motivation against a Gladbach side that’s probably the worst team in the league so far.
Gladbach are in desperate need for points since they are dead last, but I just don’t see how they can grab a positive result against a disciplined Dortmund side.

• Home win, 1.30 at Betsson.com

Sunday 28th November 2010

15:30 CET

Werder Bremen vs St.Pauli
It’s no secret that Werder Bremen are in serious trouble. They have collected just 1 point from their latest 4 matches and the only other club with the same results is… St.Pauli! Werder have suffered some humiliating results in the domestic championship and in addition they just lost to Tottenham by 3-0 and were eliminated from all European competitions despite the fact that there’s still one final match in the group stage left. During those last 4 matches Werder and St.Pauli have both scored 2 goals, but St.Pauli have conceded 8, while Bremen an embarrassing 13 goals. So the only question is which of these in-terrible-form teams will prevail here? Werder definitely have the upper hand since they are playing at home, but they haven’t been playing well anywhere at all, whether it’s home or not. St.Pauli have managed to win 3 matches away from home, but lately they’ve proven to be too weak to compete with the likes of Stuttgart, Schalke, Leverkusen, Dortmund and even Frankfurt quite recently. I guess we all have a hunch that this is the time for Werder to win by a large margin and thus improve their confidence, if they can, but they have let in 31 goals so far, which is basically the only reason that points us away from a likely and quite fairly rated home win here. There is, however, one bet that is aided by light defenses and that’s my favorite pick when it comes to Werder Bremen.

• Over 2.5 goals, 1.58 at bet365.com or Home Win, 1.75 at bet365.com.

17:30 CET

Koln vs Wolfsburg
After a bad defeat by 4-0 in a match they couldn’t afford to lose against Gladbach, Koln responded quite well last week by beating Stuttgart away from home by 1-0. They managed to put Gladbach below them once again, but they are still within the danger zone and they have a 3-point handicap from St.Pauli and Kaiserslautern, if we assume that Schalke and Stuttgart won’t be anywhere near the danger zone in a few months. Wolfsburg aren’t that far away either, they are tied with many others at 15 points and last week they failed to beat St.Pauli away from home so Koln know they can grab a positive result as well. Dzeko scored once again and it seems that only with his help will Wolfsburg be able to climb a bit higher on the table. The 2009 champions have had a rough season so far, but their current schedule could allow them to make up for the lost ground since they will face Werder, Kaiserslautern and Hoffenheim before the winter break. Koln have a much more difficult schedule before the break so this could be one of the very few chances they’ll have to collect points before we say goodbye to 2010.
It’s Podolski vs Dzeko and Novakovic vs Diego and to be honest I can already picture chances created in front of both goals so I will opt for a bet involving goals once again.

• Both to Score, 1.57 at bet365.com or over 2.5 goals, 1.73 at bet365.com

My accumulators:

• Leverkusen Halftime = Draw + Hamburger Halftime = Draw + Dortmund Home Win = 6.60 at Bet365
  
• Mainz Halftime = Draw + Bayern over 2.5 goals + Werder over 2.5 goals + Hannover-Freiburg both to score = 8.70 at Bet365.