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El Clasico 2010, Preview: Barcelona v Real Madrid

pondelok, 29. november 2010 08:17 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

El Clasico 2010, Preview: Barcelona v Real Madrid
El Clasico 2010, Preview: Barcelona v Real Madrid | zdroj: sportinglife.com

There might be some debate as to which is the best league in the world but it's impossible to dispute this as the planet's most attractive club fixture.

Barcelona and Real Madrid represent everything that is both good and bad about Spanish football and while we spend most weeks bemoaning the lack of competitive balance in La Liga, the Clásico is truly an occasion to sit back and savour like no other.

Besides the obvious cultural and historical factors behind the rivalry, the fixture now has all the elements to rival any season-defining spectacle such as the Champions League final... in fact, you could say the only thing bigger than Barcelona v Real Madrid would be a Champions League final contested by Barcelona and Real Madrid.

And what sets it apart from any other match in this day and age is the sheer quality on the pitch combined with the collective trust and belief those players share in the methods and strategy of two of the world's greatest managers.

If only to labour the point, consider that ten of the 11 players who started for Spain in last summer's World Cup final will be on display again here (seven for Barca, three for Madrid), not to mention the world's greatest individual talent in Lionel Messi and the pretender to his crown, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Throw in Dani Alves, arguably the most devastating full-back of all-time, and you have in the confined space of 105m x 68m, ten of the 23 players shortlisted for the 2010 FIFA Ballon d'Or.

So why on earth are we tipping under 1.5 goals and no goalscorer?

Well, a punter's job is not to be swayed by the hysteria that surrounds such a monumental clash, rather to unearth the value in the prices, which invariably means going against conventional wisdom.

It's a big bonus for bookmakers that the match is being staged in relative isolation on a Monday night and they will welcome a wave of custom from casual punters who simply look at recent results and expect a hatful of goals. 

The two teams have bagged 20 between them in the past week or so, but to paraphrase Ronaldo's brave prophecy in his pitchside interview on Spanish television following Madrid's 5-1 win over Atletico Bilbao last weekend: "Let's see if they can both average five goals in this game." 

Whenever a match gets hyped up to this extent, it's often the case that the two teams simply cancel each other out. And given that the title race has effectively been settled by the outcome of the two Clásicos in each of the past two seasons, it's clear to everyone that the stakes couldn't be higher.

It's also important to distinguish between a Clásico at the Camp Nou and its counterpart at the Santiago Bernabeu because Barca, as the more fluid outfit, are better suited to the away game when the Merengues have a responsibility to attack them.

In each of the past two meetings in Catalunya, Madrid have been disciplined to contain Barca but ultimately came up short in the second half, losing 2-0 and 1-0 respectively, and few would doubt that Mourinho can improve on the efforts of his predecessors Juande Ramos and Manuel Pellegrini.

Indeed, it's one of many intriguing sub-plots to this game that the Portuguese coach was able to snuff out the creative force of Pep Guardiola's men so well with Inter Milan in last season's Champions League semi-final. 

As such, we're astonished to see odds of 5.00 being offered on Real Madrid to keep a clean sheet and we'll supplement our interest on a low goals count with a bet on the visitors holding firm for the full 90 minutes.

For those willing to trust his pre-match observations, Mourinho is promising a spectacle and it's true that his front three might have greater license to get at Barcelona than was awarded to any of his Inter Milan players last May.

Nonetheless, it seems almost certain that the emphasis for the majority of players will be firmly placed on uncertainty avoidance - and that goes for both sides.

That's not to say we don't expect chances - we do - but what constitutes a glorious opportunity in this game might be rated no better than a half-chance on any other day.

In order to get the spectacle Mourinho promises, you suspect the game will require an early breakthrough, forcing the trailing side to deal in a higher degree of improvisation. The longer the game stays goalless, the more cautious both teams will become.

And that basically explains why we've opted for the under 1.5 option at 4.50 (Bet365) rather than under 2.5 at 2.20 because we don't expect the breakthrough to come inside 45 minutes but if it does, we accept that anything is possible beyond that.

For punters considering the goalscorer markets, we have one final observation.

Naturally, a great deal of attention will be attached to the influence of Messi and Ronaldo and their personal dual for this season's Pichichi but we can find reasons to ignore the claims of both men.

Messi has never scored against a Mourinho side in eight attempts and will no doubt come in for special attention once again, making him poor value at 1.90 anytime.

Ronaldo, meanwhile, has a tendency to snatch at things on the big occasion and he doesn't merit a 2.25 quote having spurned some pretty good openings (including a missed penalty) in five previous matches against Barcelona.

If these are the markets you want to play and you're gunning for an obvious candidate, then the value surely has to be with David Villa who is 6.50 to score first and 2.37 anytime. Or Gonzalo Higuaín, another man for the big occasion with justifiable claims at 9.00 first and 3.10 anytime, all odds checked at Bet365.

Alternatively, for those looking to merely dip a toe in the water, you could do much worse than back one of the centre-backs to pop up with the opener from a set play, in which case take your pick from Gerard Pique at 29.00 (Bet365), Carles Puyol at 51.00 (Bet365) or Ricardo Carvalho at 51.00 (Bet365).

PICKS:
Under 1.5 goals Barcelona v Real Madrid at 4.50
at Bet365.
Real Madrid to keep a clean sheet at 5.00
at Bet365.
No goalscorer Barcelona v Real Madrid, or 0-0 Final score at 14.00
at Bwin.