Dortmund have set an amazing record and they have a comfortable lead over their rivals. Bookmakers offer odds of less than 1.30 for them to win the title and indeed with Bayern currently 17 points away it looks very likely!

Friday 10th December 2010

20:30 CET

Hannover 96 vs VfB Stuttgart
The hosts were among the few picks that were confirmed last week, as they beat Gladbach away from home by 2-1. That was their 4th win in a row and it’s put them up to 4th place with 28 points, just 1 point away from 3rd place. For a squad that were expected to be once again battling to avoid relegation, this is an astonishing achievement, as they have now collected only 5 points less than the amount that kept them safe last season, and we’re still in the first round.
Stuttgart are still unable to get out of the danger zone and they certainly won’t make it out this week either, as Schalke are now 4 points away. Last week they couldn’t defeat Hoffenheim at home, despite the fact that the visitors were playing with 10 men for over 50 minutes. They also have a match for the Europa League coming up this week, but they’ve secured 1st place in their group already so their play tonight won’t be affected by that. Their terrible away record points us to a home win, but we’ll use some back up on the draw.
Home win draw no bet, 1.80 at bwin.com.

 

Saturday 11th December 2010

15:30 CET

FC Bayern Munchen vs FC St. Pauli
The hosts were more than happy to see Frank Ribery score twice against Basel this week in the Allianz Arena, where Bayern confirmed that they will try to repeat last year’s presence in the final of the Champions League. What they aren’t at all happy about is the way they lost last week to Schalke by 2-0, away from home, as their defence let in two goals early in the second half, while the front line missed a great deal of chances during the first half. Their gap from the top spot is now an incredible 17 points and while Dortmund look confident to collect more than 70 points by the end of the season, Bayern will have to win over 15 out of the remaining 19 matches to have a real shot at the title, which now seems lost. Even worse, the title is not the only thing, it’s currently not even the first thing, that concerns Bayern. They are 6 points away from 3rd place and if Bayern fail to take a Champions League spot, there are going to be serious consequences for the team, apart from the fact that it will be major news. St.Pauli managed to beat Kaiserslautern at home last week, but they’ve lost all 3 of their latest matches away from home, conceding 8 goals and scoring… zero.
The hosts will want to bounce right back with a convincing win here, so my pick will be once again an asian handicap and hopefully Bayern will once again confirm it.
Home win on -1.5 asian handicap, 1.60 at bet365.com.

 

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
This is one of this week’s most anticipated matches, as Hamburger are looking to close the gap from the leaders, while Leverkusen are still undefeated away from home and they are currently the only major club somewhat close to Dortmund.
The hosts have dropped considerably on the table, currently in 9th place with 21 points, mainly due to their poor performance away from home. All four of their defeats over the past 6 weeks were away from home, the latter coming last week against Freiburg. They conceding within 3 minutes and were unable to respond in the following 90. Leverkusen managed to beat Koln at home by 3-2 last week, making it their 3rd home win after 8 matches in front of their own fans. They know their undefeated away record can’t hold for ever, but the upside is they won’t have to worry about their clash with Atletico Madrid coming up this week, as they have also secured the top spot in their Europa League group. I believe this will be a very close game with goals coming from both sides, but I can’t neglect the fact that these two seem to always be tied at halftime.
Halftime result = Draw, 2.25 at bet365.com or Both teams to score, 1.62 at bet365.com or Over 2.5 goals, 1.88 at bet365.com.


 

Hoffenheim vs FC Nurnberg
The hosts managed to hold on to the draw against Stuttgart last week, despite being reduced to 10 men after 41 minutes. They are sitting comfortably in 6th place with 23 points and they are always strong when playing in front of their own fans, so we expect them to have the upper hand here. Nurnberg couldn’t pose a serious threat to Dortmund and they lost at home by 2-0. After a tremendous series of positive results, they now count four defeats in a row, conceding 11 goals and scoring just 1. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that they are in bad shape, but they will have to come back sometime, unless they want to throw away all their great efforts so far. Hoffenheim are offered at relatively low odds, but I do expect them to score at least one goal against Nurnberg that will struggle to respond. The only pick that seems safer than the home win is to ask for less than 4 goals to be scored here.
Under 3.5 goals, 1.40 at bet365.com.


 

FC Koln vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Koln tried their best against Leverkusen away from home last week, but lost by 3-2. They are tied with Stuttgart in 16th place with 12 points each, but their main rivals are the clubs being 5 and 6 points ahead. They’ve had some mixed results when playing at home so far, with a couple of important wins as well as some bad losses and this match is certainly one they’ll be pushing hard to win, since they need the points badly and Frankfurt are not exactly on top form. The visitors were lucky enough to beat Mainz at home last week thanks to a questionable penalty they were awarded, with 6 minutes left on the clock, that Gekas turned into a goal. Frankfurt are tied with Bayern and Hoffenheim in 6th place and they’ve had better results away from home rather than in front of their own fans so far. They haven’t given up their goals yet, but unless they improve at this point they can’t be aiming at a top-5 finish. Koln will try their hardest here and I think it will be a very close game. Fanis Gekas, the leading scorer in the Bundesliga, is a promising pick to score anytime.
Gekas to score anytime, 2.75 at bet365.com.


 

FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Wolfsburg
After a short comeback for Kaiserslautern, which saw them beating Nurnberg and crushing Schalke, they lost a very important match against rivals St.Pauli last week away from home by 1-0. As a result, the two teams are now tied with Wolfsburg, all in 12th place with 17 points each and it looks like some of them will have to fight hard to defend their spot at the top league. Kaiserslautern are traditionally stronger when playing at home. Wolfsburg on the other hand seem to be very fond of draw results lately, as they have four draws in a row. Last week they failed to score against a very weak Werder Bremen defence and if they don’t succeed this week against ‘Lautern either they could make the headlines but for all the wrong reasons. The 2009 Champions have been struggling during the entire first round so far, despite the fact that they added a great attacking midfielder, Diego, in the squad to support Dzeko and Grafite, two very talented attackers. Last week was only the second time this season that they didn’t manage to score any goals and I expect them to be much better this week offensively, but they still have their issues in defence so the hosts could create a few chances and take advantage of them.
Over 2.5 goals, 1.80 at bet365.com.


18:30 CET

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen
This could be the match of the weekend. It’s the leaders Dortmund against the team that just beat the European Champions, Inter Milan, by 3-0. Of course, Almeida is still suspended and combined with the rest of the absentees, Werder have a handicap here, but they will certainly try their best to grab whatever points they can get their hands on in order to reach their goals. With the Champions League experience now over, the visitors will be focusing solely on the domestic league. At the same time Dortmund have a very important match coming up this week against Sevilla in Spain. They would certainly like to advance to the knock-out stages, but they have to grab the away win in order to do that. So far the entire squad seem completely concentrated on the match at hand, because they all know that another win before the end of round 1 means a bigger advantage for round 2. The hosts should be very careful at the back, since they will find a way to score at least 1 goal. Dortmund’s previous winning streak ended after victory #7. This time they’ve already won 6 in a row. The numbers clearly pinpoint them as the favourites here and the odds agree. Werder failed to score against Wolfsburg and despite their impressive 3-0 win against Inter a few days ago, I think it won’t be easy at all to score any goals against one of the best defences the league has ever had.
Home win, 1.62 at bwin.com, or Under 3.5 goals, 1.57 at bet365.comor Dortmund to win to nil, 3.10 at bet365.com.

 

Sunday 12th December 2010

15:30 CET

SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach
The hosts bounced back immediately last week and Cisse’s early goal gave them a very important win against Hamburger. They have now managed to score at least 1 goal in 14 out of 15 matches so far and just to get an idea of how important this is, Dortmund have also scored in 14 out of 15. Freiburg are in 5th place with 24 points after 15 matches, which is already about 70% of the total sum that kept them out of the danger zone last season. Gladbach are currently dead last, with just 10 points after 15 matches and a terrible record in defence, with an average of 3 goals conceded per game. They’ve lost 3 matches in a row and last week Bobadilla was sent off against Hannover, so they are certainly not running out of problems just yet. They have to grab whatever points they can in the remaining two matches before the break and they’ll definitely have a mountain to climb during the second round. This match is extremely important for the hosts, as they will establish a comfortable lead over their rivals, which should allow them to enjoy the winter break as much as possible.
It should strike us as a surprise to see Freiburg’s Papiss Cisse score at least once against one of the worst defences ever to appear in the Bundesliga.
Home win, 1.92 at Betsson.comor Cisse to score anytime, 2.10 at bet365.com.


17:30 CET

Mainz 05 vs Schalke
The visitors managed to triumph twice within 4 days. First, they beat Bayern at home by 2-0 and then they beat Benfica in Portugal by 2-1. Howedes scored in both matches and it looks as if he is becoming very good at it. This is the first time that two German clubs top their Champions League groups, indicating that the level of competiveness of German clubs has risen. Another indication towards this statement is the fact that Schalke are currently in 15th place, just one spot above the danger zone, despite spending dozens of millions during the summer transfer period. They have collected just 16 points from 15 matches, with a terrible away record, but occasionally they do seem to work as a team and grab important wins. Last time Schalke came from an important European match they were crushed by Kaiserslautern by 5-0, so think twice before putting your money on Felix Magath’s team this week.
Mainz have managed to hang on to second place, despite losing to Frankfurt last week by 2-1 away from home. They still have no draws after 15 matches and they have a very tight defence that Schalke will find difficult to penetrate. Moreover, Schalke may have kept a clean sheet against Bayern last week, but they still have a great deal of issues in defence, so Mainz will certainly have their chances in front of goal and from what they’ve shown us so far, they are very good in turning those chances to goals.
Home win, 2.55 at bwin.com or Under 2.5 goals, 1.85 at bwin.com.



My accumulators:
1)
Bayern to win -1.5hdc
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg Under 3.5 goals
Hamburger v Leverkusen Halftime result = Draw
Odds = 5.04 at Bet365

2)
Freiburg to win
Kaiserslauter v Wolfsburg over 2.5 goals
Dortmund to win
Hamburger v Leverkusen over 2.5 goals
Odds = 10.5 at Bet365