English Npower Championship Preview: Week 21
Punters are getting some good value on home wins in the Championship at the moment and it's an avenue we will try to exploit with four singles and an accumulator this weekend.
The second-tier has a long-standing reputation for being notoriously difficult to predict and this might be what is causing the layers to sway towards each-of-two territory on so many matches However, the fact remains that, over the past six years, more than 44 per cent of matches have gone the way of the hosts, making the home win on average no bigger than a 5/4 shot. It's a figure that's remained fairly constant throughout that time with the likelihood of a host victory never straying beyond the 11/8 in any individual campaign. Last season, it was a 6/5 shot. So let's deal with our four selections in equal measure and present them in alphabetical order as they appear on the coupon. First up is Barnsley to beat Sheffield United at 2.45. The trip to Oakwell has always been tougher than the layers have acknowledged in recent years and it's nice to know that nothing has changed with Stan James chalking up such an attractive quote on Mark Robins' men this weeken Those odds suggests the Blades are in some way superior to their south Yorkshire neighbours but it's a stance we're perfectly happy to refute bearing in mind the Tykes have already taken care of Crystal Palace, Middlesbrough, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Portsmouth in their own backyard. Barnsley ought to be brimming with confidence after climbing into the top half on the back of two timely away wins and United could suffer by virtue of their big club reputation because there's little danger of the hosts falling into the complacency trap for a local derby. The Blades have been on a steady descent ever since losing the play-off final in May 2009 with new boss Gary Speed struggling to get to grips with the thankless task on his hands and now he must navigate a way through the rest of this campaign without influential skipper Chris Morgan. Sadly, it appears as though things could get a whole lot worse at Bramall Lane before they get better. By contrast, things have started falling into place quite nicely for Keith Millen at Bristol City, although the bookies haven't quite cottoned on to the extent of their improvement judging by the general 6/4 quote on them beating Derby. The Robins have picked up 17 points from the last available 24 and it was by no means a routine run of games for the Avon outfit with three of the top six faced, not to mention a couple of big clubs whose focus had been sharpened by the arrival of new manager. Derby are opposition to be respected and they sit in seventh place on merit but the tide slowly appears to be turning against them following an incredible run built on a sequence of a six straight home wins. However, results on the road have been disappointing in line with the level that opponents have started taking them seriously and routine defeats at Millwall and Leicester when confidence was high point towards them struggling at Ashton Gate on the back of three defeats in four outings. Meanwhile, Tony Mowbray appears to be bringing some semblance of direction to Middlesbrough and the circumstances might be right for them to spring a surprise against Cardiff at the Riverside. The Teessiders have been the biggest let-down in the Football League this season but this might be a rare occasion when they go out and perform well under limited pressur The visitors are strong favourites for this game but they've been pretty lacklustre ever since their breathtaking 4-0 televised win over Leeds and they come into this clash on the back of just one win in six. It's anything but title-winning form and the Bluebirds are crying out to be opposed at skinny prices until Dave Jones figures out why such a talented bunch of individuals aren't coming together with any great cohesion. The Welsh club got out of jail with a last-gasp equaliser at home to bottom club Preston last weekend but we're in no rush to believe that slice of good fortune will trigger a sudden turnaround and we're looking to ride out the wobble for another week. As for North End, they've done enough to merit support at 6/4 for the visit of Ipswich. The Lilywhites have slowly been getting their act together since their watershed defeat at home to Hull in front of the television cameras a month ago but the fixture list hasn't been kind and they will view this game as a great opportunity to turn their improved standards into a much-needed victory. The Tractor Boys have lost five on the spin - or eight of their last ten, if you prefer - and they could be on the verge of crisis point if they don't dig deep and deliver a big performance at Deepdale. Roy Keane is typically relaxed about the situation but there's a lot to dislike about the team he is sending out at the moment and his unwillingness to resort to drastic action is admirable but it could soon cost him his job. As four singles, we need two winners to secure an overall profit but there's enough scope within that framework to have some fun with an accumulator. A €10 stake on all four homes returns €396.00 with Bet365. PICKS:
Barnsley to beat Sheffield United at 2.45 at Betsson.
Bristol City to beat Derby at 2.40 at Bet365.
Middlesbrough to beat Cardiff at 2.90 at Bwin.
Preston to beat Ipswich at 2.50 at Bet365.
Accumulator on Barnsley, Bristol City, Middlesbrough and Preston at 39.60 at Bet365.