This is the last weekend of round 1 this season as well as the last matches inside 2010. Dortmund were eliminated from the Europa Cup on Wednesday, so it should be very interesting to see how they will respond just a few days later. The weather is expected to be terrible so be careful with your picks generally.

Friday 17th December 2010

20:30 CET

Gladbach vs Hamburger

The hosts have been a major disappointment so far. They are currently dead last with just 10 points from 16 matches and there’s no way they can escape the danger zone before the winter break. Everyone will try their best tonight against Hamburger because they haven’t won a single game yet at home, but the odds are against them once more. Last week they lost to Freiburg by 3-0 away from home, making it their 4th defeat in a row while they maintained their horrible average of conceding 3 goals per game.

Hamburger haven’t been performing according to their own standards either. We’ve reached the end of round 1 and they have less than half the points of Dortmund. They’ve lost 2 matches in a row and they’ve lost all their latest 4 away games, including the ones against Koln, Hannover and Freiburg. They have big issues in defence, as they’ve only kept a clean sheet twice so far. Last week they conceded 4 goals at home against Leverkusen. I will be very surprised if the visitors don’t score at least once against the worst defence in the league, but perhaps Gladbach could also create a few chances and respond with at least one goal as well. Both teams are ravaged by injuries.

Both teams to score, 1.53 at bet365.com, Over 2.5 goals, 1.65 at bet365.comor Halftime result = Draw, 2.30 at bet365.com.

Saturday 18th December 2010

15:30 CET

Schalke vs Koln 

After two wins in a row, Schalke, out of nowhere, not only evaded the danger zone but jumped up to 10th place and they may go as high as 9th at the end of the first round. After beating Bayern at the derby they beat Mainz away from home last week by 1-0. This week their task seems much easier in theory, but Koln may prove to be a tough nut to crack. After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Koln beat Stuttgart away from home and we shouldn’t forget their away draw against Bayern a while back. Last week Koln beat Frankfurt at home by 1-0, but apart from the aforementioned matches Koln have lost all their away games. Even so, they are in 16th place with 15 points, 3 above Stuttgart and 2 behind St. Pauli. They probably weren’t counting on this match to collect points when they were laying their plans before the start of the season, but this is the last match before the break so there is no reason why they shouldn’t do their best to win.

Schalke are looking in good shape, plus the fact that right now they are quite far away from their desired top-3 finish should push them forward and we could be seeing a quick goal being scored here. Odds on the home win aren’t bad either.

Home Win, 1.50 at bet365.com

Werder Bremen vs Kaiserslautern

The hosts were no match for Dortmund last week as they lost by 2-0 away from home. In fact, they could have conceded even more goals as Dortmund were creating chances at will. Werder have been facing many problems all season long, with the absence of Almeida having a visible influence on their play over the last two matches.

Coach Thomas Schaaf was sent off after protesting against a foul.

Werder are in this situation where they are just trying to reach the winter break with as few casualties as possible. The amount of 19 points they have collected so far means they will have to make a near-perfect second round in order to achieve their goals. Kaiserslautern have collected 18 points so far, but it looks like the battle for relegation this season will take place much higher than last season’s 30-33 points, so they have no time to relax.

Werder Bremen rely on the home factor in order to collect points, while Kaiserslautern have lost 6 out of 8 away games played so far. Odds on the home win are unacceptable, given Werder’s problems, so if you feel like you need to include this match in your slips try picking a bet that involves goals being scored.

Both teams to score, 1.62 at bet365.com

Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim

The “Wolves” won the 2009 championship thanks to an amazing second-round winning streak. This season they seem to be going after a different record, one which is quite unusual for a Bundesliga team. As of last week, they have 5 draws in a row, quite surprising for a team that only had 1 draw after 11 matches. Neither the wolves nor Kaiserslautern were able to break the deadlock last week so Wolfsburg now count about 200 minutes of play without scoring a goal. This has got to change in order for the team to win, but Hoffenheim are never an easy task.

The hosts have some very talented attackers and it is only natural that they will, eventually, find the way to put the ball at th back of the net.

The visitors have had their own series of draw results lately, now counting 3 draws in a row, but last week’s draw against Nurnberg was a bit more painful since because they had the lead until the 86th minute. So far they’ve lost only 2 out of 8 matches played away from home and they have managed to score at least one goal in each one of their matches except the one against Freiburg. Given the fact that Wolfsburg don’t usually end up with either a clean sheet or without scoring, I believe we could see goals coming from both sides here.

Both teams to score, 1.57 at bet365.comor Over 2.5 goals, 1.70 at bet365.com

Frankfurt vs Dortmund

The table leaders put up a good fight this Wednesday against Sevilla in Spain, but despite taking the lead early they didn’t manage to qualify for the Europa League knockout stages. Everyone knew they had a very difficult task in hand, but they still gave it their best shot and they almost made it. Kagawa scored once again, just like he did against Werder last week and he somehow seems to be connected to the back of the net. In the domestic championship, Dortmund are the table leaders. They have won an amazing 14 out of 16 matches, with their success so far coming in two sets of seven straight wins. Will Dortmund increase the series this time to 8 wins in a row?

Well, the hosts are certainly a team that should not be taken lightly. However, they’ve had a rough last month with quite a few unfortunate results that caused them to drop down to 8th place. It should be very interesting to see how Dormund will respond to their elimination. Odds on the away win are very low, considering Dortmund will be tired physically from the trip to Spain as well as mentally from their elimination.

If they pay enough attention at the back, then perhaps we won’t see that many goals here.

Under 2.5 goals, 2.05 at bwin.com.

Nurnberg vs Hannover

The hosts have not been playing very well lately, but they were still able to grab the draw against Hoffenheim away from home last week, thanks to their usual last-minute hero, Eigler. They are currently in 11th place with 19 points from 16 matches and they are in no immediate danger, but they should be very careful now if they wish to remain outside the danger zone until the end of the season. They are traditionally stronger when playing at home so I expect a solid performance on what is their last home game for the year 2010.

The visitors have had a fantastic, almost unbelievable first round so far. Last week they beat Stuttgart at home by 2-1 and that was their 5th win in a row, a series that started right after their defeat by Dortmund. Hanke and Ya Konan have been consistently scoring lately and Nurnberg’s defence will have a tough job this time.

In case Hannover win, they will conclude this season’s first round with 34 points, which is more than the total amount of 33 points the managed to collect through the whole previous season that saw them escape the relegation zone. Either way, the 3rd spot on the table is a major success even if it doesn’t hold until the end.

No bet.

18:30 CET

St. Pauli vs Mainz

The hosts are struggling to stay away from the relegation zone. They managed to collect 13 points from the first 8 matches, but they only collected an additional 4 points from the latest 8 matches. They are out of form and they are facing many problems in all of their lines, but mostly in terms of scoring. As they are currently in 15th place, just 2 points above Koln and with Stuttgart underneath, it looks as if they will eventually have to participate in the battle against relegation, so any points they can grab from this match could prove to be very important.

The visitors lost to Schalke at home last week by 1-0. That was their 2nd defeat in a row and unfortunately it caused them to drop two places on the table, from 2nd to 4th. They have been having a difficult time scoring lately, unless a specific individual such as Allagui or Schurrle are there to provide the required solutions. However, Mainz still haven’t lost their game in defence and their tight lines should keep St.Pauli away from their quarters. If Mainz are to have any realistic aim at the top-5 group, they should win this match and try to fix their few flaws during the break, but St.Pauli are in need of points as well.

Under 2.5 goals, 1.75 at Bwin or Away win draw-no-bet, 1.91 at bet365.com/bwin.com.

Sunday 19th December 2010

15:30 CET

Leverkusen vs Freiburg

When these two teams faced each other last season, on both occasions Leverkusen were still undefeated, while Freiburg were deep down under the danger zone. Leverkusen won both matches by 3-1 and 5-0. However, if you’re looking at this fixture and thinking that it should be pretty much the same story, you could be making a big mistake. Leverkusen are still the better team of course, but Freiburg look nothing like the weak team that struggled for survival last season. On the contrary, they are currently in 5th place with 27 points from 16 matches, while Leverkusen are in 2nd place with 32 points. Freiburg have a specific asset that’s played a major part in their successful run so far and it’s no other than Papiss Cisse, who has now scored 13 goals and is at the top of the scorers board together with Gekas. Freiburg beat Gladbach at home by 3-0 last week, while Leverkusen beat Hamburger away from home by 4-2. The “aspirins” had to play a late-Thursday-night match against Atletico Madrid for the Europa League. The final result was 1-1 and the coach had a chance to rest quite a few players in order to have them ready for the final fixture of round 1.

Despite their previous victory at home, Leverkusen have won just 3 out of 8 matches they’ve played in front of their own fans, so they should be very decisive in winning their last game for 2010.

Home win, 1.50 at bwin.comor Halftime result = Draw, 2.40 at bet365.com.

17:30 CET

Stuttgart vs Bayern

This is the last match of the weekend that concludes round 1, and it should be the most interesting one as well. Stuttgart managed to qualify to the Europa League knockout stages with ease, but their results in the Bundesliga are depressing. They are in 17th place with 12 points from 16 matches and each week that goes by without them escaping the danger zone, the voices that whisper the word “relegation” become even more. So far their only sources for points have been their home games, since they’ve only collected 2 points away from home. Bayern beat St.Pauli easily and climbed up to 6th place and they could end up within the top-5 after this week. That’s why they will go for the win at full throttle here, but they need to be careful as to not to be take by surprise since they’ve only won 1 out of 7 matches played away from home so far. Frank Ribery scored the 3rd goal against St.Pauli last week and the fans were very happy to be able to see him back in action once again. Odds on the away win are very low, but if you must bet on this match then try your luck with that pick.

Away win, 1.95 at Betsson.com.

My accumulators:

• Schalke to win + Werder v Kaiserslautern both to score + Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim both to score + Mainz away win draw-no-bet

Odds = 7.30 at Bet365.

• Gladbach v Hambourger both to score + St.Pauli v Mainz under 2.5 goals + Leverkusen v Freiburg halftime result = Draw + Bayern to win

Odds = 12.2 at Bet365.