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Spanish Primera Division Previews Week 18

sobota, 8. január 2011 13:17 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

Madrid are slowly but surely emerging from the depression that followed their annihilation in the Clasico and though they've yet to deliver a convincing performance in four subsequent league victories, the season is shaping up nicely for them to wipe away the memory of their Camp Nou nightmare.



Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Saturday
At what point do we start to trust Sevilla?

The Rojiblancos stretched their winning resurgence to three matches with a comfortable 3-0 success at Malaga in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday but the memories of their ineptitude before the winter break still linger vividly.

Gregorio Manzano has cut a bemused figure on the touchline for most of the past three months, a shrewd customer with a psychology degree unable to put his finger on the root cause of their shortcomings.

Sevilla have been underperforming so badly for so long, it will take more than three wins against bottom-half opposition to justify favouritism for a challenge as taxing as this and we see unmistakable value in siding with Real Sociedad at 3.25 (at Bwin).

Martin Lasarte's men have been a breath of fresh air on their return to la Primera, particular when playing on the front foot against the big fish at Anoeta.

Gallant performances against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Valencia have yielded nothing but that's down to bad luck more than bad judgement and a clean sweep of 15 points in their other five home matches illustrates how their bark can result in a bite.

Villarreal, Espanyol and Athletic Bilbao are among the list of victims - all of whom currently reside above Sevilla in the table - and the Andalusians could be back to square one if they turn up in San Sebastian without their A-game.

The stats suggest there will be a winner one way or another. You have to go all the way back to May 2009 for the last time Sevilla drew an away match against Spanish opposition, a sequence stretching back 35 matches, while the Basques have played out just one stalemate all season.





Deportivo La Coruna v Barcelona
Saturday
The sight of Barcelona clinging on for dear life in the closing stages of a match is an unfamiliar one but that's what we've witnessed twice in the space of a few days at the start of 2011.

Levante and Athletic Bilbao have both driven the champions to the brink of embarrassment, so Deportivo will be taking that as a positive ahead of this clash at the Riazor.

However, circumstances and good fortune have both played their part in what constitutes a period of mild turbulence for Pep Guardiola's men and it's unlikely the Galicians will give Madrid too much to get excited about in their pursuit of the Catalans.

Miguel Angel Lotina's men are a nuisance outfit but their stifling tactics aren't sophisticated enough to stump Barca and a comfortable away win is to be expected.

Depor's home record of W3 D4 L1 might look handy on paper but this will be their first visit from any of the established top six. Instead, look no further than the 6-1 battering they took at the Santiago Bernabeu as an indication of where they stand against this calibre of opposition.

There are many ways to get with Barca and the temptation exists to try to claw back our losses on them winning both halves against Levante last weekend. The same bet is available at 2.50 this time around and with a 75 per cent strike rate on the road so far, that's not a price to be sniffed at.

Better still, perhaps, is the 1.67 (at Bwin) about the Barca/Barca double result, which they've landed in seven out of eight away games so far, or you could back Barca to win to nil at 1.90 (at Bet365) given how little threat Depor usually pose as an attacking entity.

However, through a combination of being spoilt for choice and more clear-cut opportunities presenting themselves elsewhere, we'll actually move on from this one without striking a bet.


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Reak Madrid v Villarreal
Sunday
Madrid are slowly but surely emerging from the depression that followed their annihilation in the Clasico and though they've yet to deliver a convincing performance in four subsequent league victories, the season is shaping up nicely for them to wipe away the memory of their Camp Nou nightmare.

Nothing feeds the Merengues' superiority complex better than a game against city rivals Atletico and they've got two of those to look forward to in the next fortnight after the Colchoneros set up a Copa del Rey quarter-final clash by keeping to their side of the bargain against Espanyol on Thursday.

But first Madrid must take maximum points from a home game against Villarreal, the eternal good guys of the Spanish game and a re-emerging force this season.

Based on their results and performances so far, the Yellow Submarine ought to represent a touch of value at 10.00 but experience has taught us better than to talk about the rest of the top six in the same breath as the top two.

Villarreal have previous for coming up short in games of this magnitude and as good as they've been against the also-rans up to this point, they seem unlikely candidates to end Jose Mourinho's colossal run of league games without a home defeat as a manager.

You have to go all the way back to February 2002 for the last time a Mourinho team was ousted in their own backyard, a sequence spanning 144 matches (119 wins).

Therefore, we'll look elsewhere for value and it's the correct-score market that grabs our attention with Coral offering standout prices on Real Madrid to win 1-0 at 9.50 and Real Madrid to win 2-0 at 8.00.

Recent home games against Atletico Madrid, Valencia and Sevilla provide us with the best benchmark of how this one might unfold and it won't surprise too many punters to learn that dutching the Special One's two favourite scorelines would have copped on all three occasions

.

 

Levante v Valencia
Sunday
The Valencia city derby returns to the Primera calendar after nearly three years and it might be worth siding with Levante to finally get the better of their illustrious neighbours at attractive odds of 4.15.

We won't hide the fact that we're basing our case almost entirely around the emotion of the occasion because the formbook will have to be thrown out of the window for us to stand any chance of copping this bet.

However, you only have to study Valencia's collapse in the second half of their Copa del Rey clash at Villarreal to understand how they're capable of going to pieces when emotions are running high and circumstances start to get on top of them.

Los Che under Unai Emery are many things but resilience in the face of adversity isn't at the top of their skill set and this is something Levante can exploit if they show the same fighting spirit that allowed them to hold Real Madrid, beat Atletico Madrid and run Barcelona close in the Camp Nou last weekend.

It's a measure of Levante's tenacity that they've failed to score only twice this season - a record only Barca can better - and they won't be short of confidence having beaten Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey on Thursday.

Madrid might have been eight goals to the good from the first leg, enabling them to field a weakened side in Orriols, but the Granotes made the most of what they saw as a decent warm-up exercise for Sunday's challenge.

They're not the sort of club to indulge in unnecessary pre-match bravado but Levante will be desperate for the bragging rights in this one and Valencia will have to stay extremely cool in order to make their superiority count and escape with their dignity intact.

 

SUGGESTED PICKS:
Real Sociedad to beat Sevilla at 3.25
at Bwin.
Real Madrid to beat Villarreal 1-0 at 9.50
at Bet365.
Real Madrid to beat Villarreal 2-0 at 8.00
at Bet365.
Levante to beat Valencia at 4.15
at Bwin.