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Spanish Primera Division Previews: Round 20

sobota, 29. január 2011 11:40 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

Enjoy our previews for 20th Round of Primera Division!


Saturday


Hercules v Barcelona, 1900GMT


Pep Guardiola isn't the kind of manager to indulge the media with pre-match hyperbole but you can rest assured Barcelona will have revenge in mind against Hercules at the Jose Rico Perez on Saturday.
 

Plenty of water has passed under the bridge since Estaban Vigo's newly-promoted side stunned the football world by beating the champions by two clear goals in their own backyard four months ago but you suspect the Catalans will welcome the opportunity to set the record straight.


Victory would stretch Barca's winning sequence to 15 consecutive matches and their away record is bordering on the ridiculous with nine wins out of nine and a goal difference of +29. Only once have they failed to triumph by two clear goals and the margin of victory has been at least three on no fewer than five occasions.


All of which makes it rather difficult to present a case for the home side at 14/1 over the full 90 minutes but we reckon it might just be worth throwing a few quid at the 11/1 onHercules to winning at half-time.


The Alicante-based outfit are very dynamic on home soil, averaging two goals per game over nine matches and we should expect them to come out on the front foot just as they did when rocking Real Madrid back on their heels in late October.


Indeed, Hercules snatched the lead that night with a fine header from David Trezeguet and we'll also turn to the Frenchman for a further interest in this game.


Trezeguet has an incredible record of scoring in every home match since his arrival on the Costa Blanca and though it's a record that has to end sometime, there should be no disputing the each-way value in odds of 14/1 about him making the breakthrough.


Deportivo La Coruna v Sevilla, 21.00GMT


There's always a temptation to have a bet whenever Sevilla play away from home because of the rarity with which they finish all-square outside of the Sanchez Pizjuan.


The recent 3-3 draw in the first leg of the Copa del Rey quarter-final against Villarreal at El Madrigal was their first stalemate on the road against Spanish opposition for 37 matches and the crazy nature of that game, littered as it was with individual errors, tells you it came about more by accident than design.


In the league, Sevilla remain 29 matches without a draw (15 victories, 14 defeats), a sequence that stretches all the way back to April 2009, so we're happy to conclude that the 12/5 available on the stalemate is much shorter than it really ought to be.


So on which side lies the value? Well, circumstances suggest it might just be worth backing Deportivo La Corunaat 13/5.


The Galicians haven't been able to match the standards of recent seasons but they still possess the capability to suffocate teams and grind things out and Sevilla could be more vulnerable than usual with this game coming in the middle of their two-legged Copa semi-final against Real Madrid.


The Andalusians were unable to capitalise on home advantage when going down 1-0 in the first leg on Wednesday and while it's difficult to imagine any way back for them now, Gregorio Manzano's men are still likely to be projecting some emotional energy towards the return at the Bernabeu in a few days.


If so, it's because the prize is more tangible. The chase to qualify for the Champions League next season is looking increasingly forlorn and while the rojiblancos have the capacity to improve vastly, you wouldn't to back them at 5/4 based on their record to date.
 


Sunday


Osasuna v Real Madrid. 18.00 GMT


Jose Mourinho was a mixture of relief and satisfaction after witnessing his Real Madrid side edge past Real Mallorca at the Bernabeu last weekend when Karim Benzema came to the rescue with the only goal midway through the second half of a game that was pretty finely-balanced.


The islanders spurned a handful of chances to take the lead but the Portuguese coach was untroubled in the aftermath, pointing to the Merengues' tough schedule in recent weeks with the completion of a derby double-header against Atletico Madrid the pretext to the clash against Michael Laudrup's men. For him, it was a case of 'job done'.


So expect something similar when Madrid travel to one of the country's more hostile venues in Pamplona on Sunday on the back of another 1-0 victory courtesy of Benzema against Sevilla at the Sanchez Pizjuan in the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final.


In spite of the circumstances making life difficult for Madrid, it's hard to make a case for Osasuna at 10/1 because while a clean sheet may not be beyond them, they seldom show the creativity and guile to take full advantage at the opposite end.


It's only the wealth of opportunities elsewhere that prevent us from getting involved in this one but everything points to a low goals count and there's some value to be had in the 11/8 quotes about under 2.5 goals if you're sitting down in front of the telly and fancy an interest.


Alternatively, you might prefer to simply dip a toe in the water, in which case the standout bets would be the visitors to triumph by a solitary goal and don't be too shocked if Benzema continues his riposte to the arrival of Emmanuel Adebayor.


Espanyol v Villarreal, 20.00 GMT


Juan Carlos Garrido recently expressed his pleasant surprise at Villarreal's ability to maintain the pace in third place but we fancy them to be pegged back when they travel to Espanyol on Sunday.


The Yellow Submarine might have a history of Champions League participation but they've exceeded most pre-season expectations having off-loaded a few of their key players from recent years and gambled on promoting a handful of homegrown talents from the B team.


However, the season isn't over yet and a small squad might be stretched to the point that a slump is imminent.


The loss of Nilmar to knee surgery was thought as a possible trigger to a downturn in form and while it hasn't affected results so far, it has placed a heavier burden on Giuseppe Rossi to both create and provide.


Against a rearguard as mean as the Pericos', that burden might just take its toll and 6/4 is a good price about the hosts considering their record at Cornella-El Prat is the bedrock of a fine effort this term that sees them trail Villarreal by just five points in the race for those coveted Champions League spots.


The Catalans have always kept things tight under Mauricio Pochettino and given how we fancy the visitors to hit the proverbial brick wall, it might be worth supplementing our interest with a bet on Espanyol to win to nil at 7/2.


It's a bet they have landed on six occasions already this season and you really shouldn't need to ask any further questions about the value of the price once you realise that the hosts come into this game on the back of 13 shut-outs in their last 18 home matches.