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English Premiership Previews, week 26

piatok, 4. február 2011 18:23 | Autor: Dr-Bet.com

Bottom hosts top at Molineux on Saturday evening and we're not expecting any surprises. Sure, Wolves did shock Chelsea here in early January but Mick McCarthy's side have lost their last three league games since then and also suffered an FA Cup fourth-round exitat home to Stoke at the weekend.


Stoke v Sunderland
Stoke were easily brushed aside by Liverpool on Wednesday night when they offered very little in attack and on that display they are very hard to fancy at best odds of 2.10. They might be a different team at home but they'll have to be to beat high-flying Sunderland who remain in good form despite a 4-2 loss at home to Chelsea in midweek. Mistakes cost them on Wednesday and there is a growing feeling that Chelsea are returning to something like their best so a 4-2 defeat against the in-form champions isn't such a disastrous result. Sunderland have coped well in the goalscoring department since the departure of Darren Bent and their away form has also been good lately, with their last two road trips ending with victory at Villa and Blackpool. Stoke have won their last two at home and they welcome back skipper Ryan Shawcross who should help shore up the defence that let in two at Anfield midweek. However, it's offensively that Stoke look set to struggle and one goal in their last three games is a sign that they aren't creating enough chances in front of goal. If Sunderland can keep it tight at the back - something they admittedly failed to do against Chelsea - they are overpriced to win this. The Black Cats won the reverse fixture 2-0 and we'll take the 3.75they can repeat the trick.
Verdict: Stoke 0 Sunderland 1



Aston Villa v Fulham
Fulham remain one of the worst teams on the road in the Premier League and it's of no coincidence that their recent run of wins has come when they've had a run of fixtures at home. Three of their last four games have been played at Craven Cottage and they won all three without conceding, though their sole away game in that sequence was a 1-0 defeat at Anfield. Their problem is they are very one dimensional in away games, with their whole gameplan based on keeping it tight at the back while hoping to nick one on the break. Such tactics are unlikely to work at Aston Villa who have scored in each of their last six games - a run that has yielded four wins, a draw and a loss at Man United. It seems to me the Villains are just getting used to life under Gerard Houllier and the signing of Darren Bent has brought a much-needed goalscorer to the party. Villa have conceded in each of their last three games but if they focus on getting a clean sheet against Fulham I'd wager they'll win all three points. Three of their five home Premier League wins this season have come without conceding and at 3.00 that looks the bet here.
Verdict: Aston Villa 2 Fulham 0


Everton v Blackpool
It wasn't so long ago we were banging the Blackpool drum as the bookies continually underestimated the Tangerines. However, Ian Holloway's team have hit a rocky patch, losing their last four, although you could still argue that 7/1 about a team that have won five games away from home is grossly misjudged. While the wheels haven't quite come off the Seasiders yet they are just conceding too many goals for us to side with them at present. You have to go back to last year for their last clean sheet and they've conceded 17 goals in eight games since then. Leaking goals hasn't affected their ability to score them at the other end, though, as they've netted eight times in their last five games. In fact, in total this season, Blackpool have scored 17 goals in 11 away games, the same as Manchester United, which is a terrific output and one David Moyes will be well aware of. Over 3.5 goals at 2.15 is a tempting bet but we're drawn by some huge prices in the correct score market. Everton 3-2 (30.00 at Betsson) and 4-2 (50.00 at Betsson) appeal at the prices and we'll dutch those scores to very small stakes.
Verdict: Everton 4 Blackpool 2

 




Manchester City v West Brom
Here we have a clash between two teams who cannot defend with any level of competence at present. West Brom conceded another two goals from set-pieces on Tuesday while City's defensive fragilities were there for all to see at Birmingham where they conceded their 10th and 11th goals from their last six games. Both teams to score at 1.80 looks appealing at first glance, but with this bet you are trusting West Brom will find the net - something they have failed to do in their last three away games. Given they might have to feed off scraps in this game it's no guarantee they'll score, even factoring in City's poor displays at the back, so we'll swerve the odds-on quotes. City should oblige at odds of 1.45 in the outright market and it might be a case of home sweet home for them after three consecutive away trips to the Midlands. They've scored eight goals in their last two home games after beating Wolves 4-3 and Leicester 4-2 and they could cut loose against a fragile Baggies outfit who have lost six of their last eight matches. However, considering both defences are unreliable it's anybody's guess how this one will end up and we'll take a watching brief.
Verdict: Man City 3 West Brom 1


Newcastle v Arsenal
Life without Andy Carroll won't be easy for Newcastle and some would argue this was evident on Wednesday night as they went down 1-0 against Fulham in their first match since his £35million departure to Liverpool. That said, Carroll hasn't played in 2011 due to injury problems and before their defeat at Craven Cottage, the Magpies had won two of their last four league games and in the other two they were denied victories by stoppage-time equalisers. So aside from the shock FA Cup exit at Stevenage, Alan Pardew's men have been bubbling along nicely and we feel it would be naive to dismiss their chances against Arsenal just because of the Carroll factor. It's not as if he would have been playing anyway. Of course they did also lose Shola Ameobi to injury against Fulham leaving them with a striker shortage but they have looked pretty solid at the back in recent weeks and will look to frustrate the title-chasing Gunners again having claimed an impressive 1-0 win at the Emirates Stadium earlier in the season. Arsenal huffed and puffed to a 2-1 victory over Everton on Tuesday night and perhaps the fatigue factor is beginning to take its toll following their congested schedule in January. Arsene Wenger's side had to come through an unexpectedly tough Carling Cup semi-final against Ipswich to book their place at Wembley while they needed a replay to see off Leeds in the FA Cup and a late penalty to beat League One Huddersfield in their fourth-round clash at the weekend. They also managed three wins and a draw in their four league games, scoring nine without reply, but they did look jaded against the Toffees. It's 2.30 about a Newcastle win or a draw in Bwin's double chance market and we think that's worth taking.
Verdict: Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0

 

Tottenham v Bolton
Tottenham were regarded as outside title contenders - by Harry Redknapp at least - as we entered the new year but a disappointing January has left them facing an uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League again. Defeat at Everton was followed by draws against leaders Manchester United and Newcastle while Chelsea's recent resurgence has seen them slip threepoints behind the fourth-placed Blues. Man City, who have played a game more, are a further two points ahead in third so although Spurs are still well in contention to claim a top-four spot, they will be desperate to avoid dropping points at home to Bolton on Saturday. Redknapp's side head into this fixture on the back of a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Blackburn on Wednesday night to ease the pain from last weekend's crushing 4-0 FA Cup defeat against Fulham and we think they can now press on and regain some of that lost momentum. Bolton have lost on their last three visits to White Hart Lane in all competitions without scoring a goal and on recent form there isn't much evidence to suggest they can buck the trend on this occasion. The Trotters ended a miserable five-game winless run in the league with a welcome 1-0 triumph over rock-bottom Wolves on Wednesday night but that was only down to Daniel Sturridge taking advantage of a suicidal backpass from Ronald Zubar in stoppage time. Sure, the return of Chung-Yong Lee from the Asian Cup injected some much-needed life into what has been a lethargic midfield in recent weeks due to a shortage of manpower while Sturridge's arrival on loan from Chelsea is undoubtedly a boost considering how both Kevin Davies and Johan Elmander have struggled in front of goal. Those three points have put their heads comfortably above water again and you just wonder if that makes an away trip to one of the leading sides a little less important for them. Spurs will be out to make a fast start, like they did against Rovers with Peter Crouch's third-minute goal, and we fancy Bwin's 2.50 about the hosts winning at half-time and full-time. This tactic would have paid off in Bolton's previous two defeats against Chelsea and Stoke and another sluggish performance will play into Spurs' hands.
Verdict: Tottenham 2 Bolton 0

 

Wigan v Blackburn
Many predicted Blackburn would slide into deep trouble following the questionable sacking of Sam Allardyce in December but to be fair it looks as though Steve Kean has more than steadied the ship since taking charge and Rovers fans will tell you the team are playing a more entertaining brand of football now. They travel to Lancashire rivals Wigan on the back of a 1-0 defeat to Tottenham but on another day they surely would have grabbed at least a point having pushed their high-flying opponents hard. The likes of Junior Hoilett, Mame Biram Diouf, David Dunn, Christopher Samba and Morten Gamst Pedersen all went close and if the team can reproduce that level of intensity on Saturday then we can see them causing relegation strugglers Wigan all kinds of problems at the DW Stadium. The Latics have now gone seven league games without a win after a late Marc-Antoine Fortune equaliser earned West Brom a 2-2 draw on Tuesday night, leaving Roberto Martinez's men deep in trouble. Only Wolves are below Wigan in the table and although they're only one point behind fourth-bottom Birmingham, they have played two games more. We're pretty bullish about the chances of an away win here so we'll snap up the 2.95 on offer with Betsson.
Verdict: Wigan 0 Blackburn 2
 

Wolves v Manchester United
Bottom hosts top at Molineux on Saturday evening and we're not expecting any surprises. Sure, Wolves did shock Chelsea here in early January but Mick McCarthy's side have lost their last three league games since then and also suffered an FA Cup fourth-round exitat home to Stoke at the weekend. They head into this daunting challenge on the back of a demoralising 1-0 defeat to Bolton on Wednesday night, when a costly backpass from Ronald Zubar gifted the Trotters a stoppage-time winner and left a dejected McCarthy feeling "lousy" and "robbed". By contrast the unbeaten Red Devils have opened up a five-point lead over Arsenal at the top of the table and on Tuesday night picked up their fourth successive victory in all competitions with a comfortable 3-1 win over Aston Villa at Old Trafford. The result matched their club record 29 league games without defeat but more importantly Wayne Rooney, who endured a tough first few months of the season, is back on the goal trail having bagged a fine brace. It was the first time he's scored two in a game for almost 11 months, taking his tally to five this season and United's title rivals will no doubt be concerned. The 6.00 on offer with bet365 about Rooney scoring two or more is tempting but instead we'll opt for the win to nil market where United are available at 1.46 with Betsson. Admittedly, Sir Alex Ferguson's men have only kept three clean sheets away from home in the league this campaign, drawing eight of those 11 games and winning just three, but Wolves have failed to find the net in any of their last three.
Verdict: Wolves 0 Man Utd 2 

PICKS:
Sunderland to beat Stoke at 3.75
at Bet365
Villa to win to nil v Fulham at 3.00
at Bet365
Everton to beat Blackpool 3-2 at 30.00 Betsson and 4-2 at 50.00
at Betsson
Newcastle/draw v Arsenal double chance at 2.30
at Bwin.
Tottenham to be leading Bolton half-time/full-time at 2.50
at Bwin.
Blackburn to beat Wigan at 2.95
at Betsson
Man Utd to beat Wolves to nil at 1.46
at Betsson