Tennis Previews: Mardy Fish to win in Florida
This week's action on the ATP World Tour brings two 500-level tournaments - in Dubai and Acapulco - but our best bet of the week comes at the smaller Delray Beach event.
We told you last week how Mardy Fish was rollng along at a career-high ranking following an impressive last 12 months. Sadly our 15.00 pick in Memphis narrowly failed to justify our faith, losing in the semi-finals to Milos Raonic. However, Fish showed enough there for us to go in again this week in what looks a weaker field. Again the American has landed in a decent section of the draw - as second seed there looks little to be afraid of in his quarter. Things are likely to get tougher from then on, but then again when don't they? John Isner is seeded to be Fish's last-four opponent but he's not been at his best so far in 2011 and in any case Fish has won both of their previous meetings. Former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro is perhaps a more likely semi-final foe but the big-hitting Argentine is still finding his feet again after a long injury absence. He's racked up plenty of match wins on the hardcourts in the last few weeks, making the semis in both San Jose and Memphis, but when the going has got tough he's come unstuck. Eventual champion Fernando Verdasco proved too good in the last four in San Jose, while this past week in Tennessee it was Andy Roddick who had Del Potro's number. Fish's form means he can be bracketed in such company and he's also up on Del Potro on the head to head, leading 2-1. After his run to final in Memphis, Roddick is this week's top seed but he often fails to justify favouritism in such events and we're again loathe to back him at a best of 3.00. If Fish does play his old friend in next Sunday's final, there's more good news looking at the stats. Admittedly, Roddick leads the overall head to head, but Fish has won the last two, both which came only last season. A winner in Delray Beach as recently as 2009 (he also made the semis in Florida last season), Fish is around the 7.00 (Bet365) mark to win this week and we're happy with that quote. The Dubai Duty Free Championships see Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic make their return to the tour for the first time since the Australian Open and it's no surprise to see them dominate the book. In the run-up to this event, the well-rested Federer has been hitting back at his critics that he's far from finished and he seems determined to make a statement here. He's a four-time winner of the tournament, although his last victory came back in 2007. The Swiss' defeat to Djokovic in the Melbourne semis was pretty convincing, so the quotes of 3.00 aren't for us. Meanwhile, Djokovic, who beat Andy Murray in the Australian Open final, arrives as the two-time defending champion. However, after almost a month off, he may be vulnerable in the early stages, especially given the first-round draw he's been handed. Michael Llodra made the last eight in Marseille last week and is another player around his highest-ever ranking at present. The world number 23 only just missed out on a seeding here and is one of the toughest opponents Djokovic could have faced in round one. There's a chance the Serb could be caught cold, so Llodra's outright odds of 7.00 are worth a small punt. The price will likely be a single-figure one if Llodra can win in round one and on current form that shouldn't be ruled out. TIPS:
Mardy Fish to win in Delray Beach International at 7.00 at Bet365
Michael Llodra in Dubai Duty Free Championships at 7.00 at Bet365