Preview: Spanish Primera Division, Matchday 1
The first day of a new season has never been the time to draw any satisfactory conclusions, but there's nonetheless a fair amount of intrigue surrounding this particular week.
Malaga v Valencia Malaga have been the subject of an exciting takeover that could ultimately transform the club into regular participants on the European stage and though we don't yet know how much new owner Abdullah Al-Thani's plans to invest in the club, it seems unlikely that the Boquerones will find themselves embroiled in a relegation battle for the third successive campaign. Portuguese coach Jesualdo Ferreira is now the man in charge at La Rosaleda after five seasons at Porto but the changes haven't extended a great deal to the playing staff just yet, so we'll assume there's a long-term plan in place rather than a knee-jerk ambition to break into the top six overnight. As for Valencia, they've sold off their prized assets during the summer, the net profit of which will pay the interest on a reported 500million euro debt - and little else, by the sounds of it - so neutrals are understandably curious to know how they will adjust. Los Che aren't short on numbers, if anything they've increased the size of their first team squad with a string of bargain replacements and educated gambles on players other clubs of a similar stature haven't been prepared to take the risk on. The hope at Mestalla is that one or two will shine beyond most expectations but the likelihood is that Valencia will now have to rely on becoming a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts, so it's lucky for them they have a manager of Unai Emery's class at the helm. We've already waxed lyrical about the Basque coach when nailing our colours to the their mast in our ante-post preview, so there's no need to go into too much detail about their virtues here. Save to say, we think they will be well organised and difficult to break down and now is when the opportunity exists to find most value, so odds of 3.00 on Valencia to keep a clean sheet should be snapped up. Levante v Sevilla Last season, I had the dubious pleasure of watching Levante on a handful of occasions and each time I came away feeling a little depressed at what I considered to be a wasted, not to mention lonely, couple of hours. The first time was in September, the last was in April, and at no point did I ever imagine the Granotes would be promoted come the day of reckoning in mid-June. It came as quite a surprise when they suddenly emerged as contenders in February, yet subsequent visits to Orriols left me assuming the bubble had just burst and inevitable freefall would ensue. Obviously they must have done something right at some point. Anyway, the gist of this preamble is that Sevilla look a big price at 2.00 based on what I've witnessed to date, so let's take a punt on the away win in spite of the various psychological factors that could count against them. There's a lot to dislike about the Andalusians coming into this clash, which explains why the stake has been kept sensible, but I had them down as 4/5 shots on my tissue nonetheless. The biggest element of the unknown is the attitude of the players because defeat at the Ciutat de Valencia would surely put Antonio Alvarez on the brink of the axe following Tuesday's Champions League exit to Braga, so only time will tell how much they want to save his skin. However, in terms of class, this really is a mismatch and it would probably require a shameless performance from the visitors to drop points in this game. Racing Santander v Barcelona Indeed, it's a measure of how much things have changed in the last couple of years that virtually nobody is referring to a record at the north cast venue that remains dubious when you take a long-term view of history. That's not only because Barca smashed Racing for four goals in their backyard last February but also because of what's happened since Pep Guardiola's men picked up their second successive title barely three months ago. You see, while Racing have lost Sergio Canales to Real Madrid and reinvested virtually nothing to try and compensate for the loss, the champions have splashed out 40million euros on David Villa. You could argue that Barca have had virtually no pre-season to speak of but then you witness the ease with which the returning heroes overturned a 3-1 first-leg Supercopa deficit against Sevilla inside 45 minutes and instantly you remember just how cohesive and irresistible this team is. As ever, we'd love to find a way to back the visitors but there are no secrets where Barcelona are concerned. The layers know everything there is to know, so just sit back and enjoy what will probably be another masterclass. Real Mallorca v Real Madrid Michael Laudrup is the new man at the helm for the islanders and though his coaching history has been mostly positive to date, he's unlikely to repeat the achievements of his predecessor with a team now stripped of the talent provided last season by Aritz Aduriz, Luis Suarez and Borja Valero. Mallorca will start the season in a somewhat depressive state, having been stripped of their Europa League spot by UEFA for failing to fulfil their financial obligations and the Merengues should compound their misery with a comprehensive three points here. That's not to say the visitors will win by a cricket score but odds of 6/5 on a Real Madrid clean sheet say enough about how Mourinho is likely to set about achieving victory. The Portuguese has talked about creating a new identity at the Bernabeu and that will no doubt involve changing the culture to place the emphasis on a team ethic rather than relying on highly-talented individuals to take turns in coming up with the goods against weaker opposition. Most intriguing of all in this will be how Cristiano Ronaldo operates under his compatriot because you suspect the former Manchester United man can get closer to his obvious personal ambition of being regarded as the best player in the world if he progresses under the Special One. However, such asides will be the extent of our interest in this encounter because there's nothing to get overly excited about in the markets until Mourinho's methods start to take shape.
(Saturday 2000 CET)
The first day of a new season has never been the time to draw any satisfactory conclusions, but there's nonetheless a fair amount of intrigue surrounding this particular fixture.
(Saturday 2200 CET)
You know the perils of placing too much trust in the naked eye when what you've witnessed was fleeting and sporadic, but sometimes you have to trust your judgement and take a leap of faith because the regret of missing out on a price is greater than being wrong.
(Sunday 1900 CET)
There was a time not so long ago when El Sardinero was considered to be a graveyard for Barcelona but that was in a bygone era when the title race wasn't necessarily between the same two teams and the course had regular twists and turns.
(Sunday 2100 CET)
Jose Mourinho starts the next chapter of an incredible managerial career with a trip to San Moix and we don't anticipate any too many problems for a Real Madrid against a Real Mallorca side that must now attempt to punch above its weight without the expert guidance of Gregorio Manzano.
Best of the rest:
Match fitness could be a big factor in temperatures rising above 40 degrees on Sunday afternoon and it could benefit Getafe to have a couple of competitive matches under their belt when they travel to Espanyol.
The Madrid-based minnows will head across to Catalunya in high spirits after clinching a place in the Europa League group stages with an extra-time winner against APOEL Nicosia in Cyprus on Thursday.
Had the result of that game gone the other way, then we might have been inclined to shy away from a bet on the visitors at Cornella-El Prat but now we're prepared to believe Michel's men are less likely to succumb to fatigue on the back of a positive start to the campaign.
All of which aside, we simply believe that Espanyol are too short based upon what we know from last season.
Getafe finished five places and 14 points ahead of the Pericos in 2009/10, so odds of 2.50 about them on the draw-no-bet market catch the eye when you consider how Espanyol find goals so difficult to come by.
Mauricio Pochettino's men could muster only 29 from their 38 matches last term, earmarking them as weak favourites at around the 6/5 mark.
TOP PICKS:
Valencia to keep a clean sheet against Malaga at 3.00 (Bet365).
Sevilla to beat Levante at 2.00 (Ladbrokes).
Getafe to beat Espanyol (draw no bet) at 2.50 (Bet365).