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Spanish Primera Division Previews: Round 19

piatok, 14. január 2011 14:04 | Autor: TASR

Spanish Primera Division Previews: Round 19
Spanish Primera Division Previews: Round 19

Enjoy our previews for 19th Round of Primera Division!


Saturday


Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander (1900GMT)

Having shipped 18 goals in their first seven away matches, Racing Santander have suddenly perked up defensively with back-to-back clean sheets at Mallorca and Atletico Madrid but what works at San Moix and the Calderon isn't necessarily a sure thing at San Mames.

Athletic Bilbao have a style of their own, one that wouldn't particularly look out of place in the English Premier League, and they promise to deliver an examination that will prove one way or the other whether the Cantabrians have turned a corner.

We observed earlier in the campaign how there wasn't much wrong with Racing's ability to retain possession and general build-up play but they consistently come up short in both penalty boxes.

Despite tightening up at the back, their lack of cutting edge still ensures that victories will elude them even on good days. Either way, we wouldn't recommend playing the under/over 2.5 goals market in this one because it's as difficult to call as the prices would suggest.

Athletic suffered a rare home defeat a fortnight ago when a couple of dubious refereering decisions contrived to gift Deportivo a two-goal lead with barely half-an-hour on the clock and you seldom find a way back into the game once the Galicians have something to hold on to.

However, prior to that, the Basques had won five on the bounce at la Catedral and we fancy them to revert to type, albeit not enough to warrant our involvement at 5/6.

Sevilla v Espanyol (2100GMT)


You could argue that Sevilla have gone up a notch in our estimation insomuch that we're suddenly passing up the opportunity to oppose them this weekend but, by the same token, the last seven days haven't done a huge amount to convince us that all rosy once again at the Sanchez Pizjuan.

Six goals in two tough matches at Real Sociedad and Villarreal have enabled the Andalusians to bag three points and put one foot in the Copa del Rey semis and while that has to be respected, it must also be mentioned that the opposition defending in both games was hardly of the highest calibre.

By contrast, Espanyol's greatest strength is their ability to keep things tight and this game will provide more conclusive answers into the rising confidence levels of Freddie Kanoute and Alvaro Negredo.

The Pericos remain five points clear of their hosts on the back of last weekend's convincing 4-0 win over bottom-of-the-table Zaragoza, a simple stat that suggests they ought to be value at 9/2, especially when supported by the memory of their 3-2 success at Atletico Madrid in late November.

However, the Catalans were woefully short of ideas going forward after striker Pablo Osvaldo came off injured in their last away game at Valencia and his absence for the next two months is enough to deter us from investing cheaply.

If you're thinking of a bet to heighten your viewing pleasure, you could probably do worse than back the goalless draw at 12/1, perhaps with a saver on under 1.5 goals at 11/5.
 


Sunday



Barcelona v Malaga (2000GMT)


The Barcelona juggernaut continued at full pelt with a 5-0 win over Real Betis in midweek, bringing to bear the worst fears of visiting president Rafa Gordillo who pleaded to have the tie switched (with Betis at home first) for fear of the impact that a dead-rubber return might have on ticket sales.

Needless to say, Barca's priority was to put the tie to bed inside 90 minutes and that's exactly what they did with Lionel Messi celebrating his second Ballon d'Or gong with the first three goals, his sixth hat-trick in the past 12 months.

The bad news for Malaga, of course, is that they now have the undivided attention of Pep Guardiola's men and any team that has conceded three goals or more on ten occasions already this term is bound to head for the Camp Nou with more than a little trepidation.

There have been fleeting signs of improvement to comfort Manuel Pellegrini in recent weeks with deserved wins over Racing Santander and Sporting Gijon, while the Boquerones were just seconds away from another three points against Athletic Bilbao at La Rosaleda last weekend.

However, two defeats in the midst of that sequence were suffered by hefty margins and when the likes of Osasuna, Deportivo, Hercules and Atletico Madrid can beat you by three clear goals, what chance to do you stand against Barca?

Once again, we're torn between different ways to get with Barca. The 8/11 quote on them winning halves seems generous enough in light of the fact they've landed this bet in ten of their last 11 outings, the exception being the one occasion when we backed it!

However, we will plump instead for the 4/5 on Barcelona to win by three goals or more with Coral, a feat they have achieved in seven of their last eight league matches.

Until we see a definite shift in their performance levels, we're no longer going to think twice about backing these kind of bets, no matter how ridiculous the prices might seem when placed in the context of any other team of this generation.


Monday



Atletico Madrid v Real Mallorca 
(2000GMT)

It didn't take long to work out what was on the minds of the Atletico Madrid players as they fell four goals behind in a sluggish first half showing at Hercules last Monday.

Now there could be some value in siding with Real Mallorca to take advantage of another half-hearted performance from the Colchoneros this coming Monday.

The small matter of a Copa del Rey derby against bitter rivals Real Madrid is dominating the thoughts of everyone at the Vicente Calderon at the moment and the players seem acutely aware that literally anything will be forgiven if they can somehow spring a shock on the Merengues.

Thursday's first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu ended on a sour note with Mesut Ozil's 90th minute strike handing Jose Mourinho's men a 3-1 advantage going into the return and while a 2-0 victory seems like a near-impossibility, Atletí will be well aware their chances will be reduced further if they over-exert themselves in this clash.

The islanders are nearly 4/1 to triumph in the capital - even though they sit a point ahead of their hosts in the table - and the value shines even brighter when you consider how they beat Valencia and Sevilla on their patch and held Barcelona to a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou.

Michael Laudrup is the shrewd cookie in the San Moix hot-seat and he possesses plenty of nous to deliver the right tactical game plan to suit whatever mood awaits at the Calderon.